Sensex Technical View :
Nifty :: Finally market correct from overbought zone.. Still trading above strong support zone.. 3517 to 3525, Below it next strong support zone 3410 to 3430.. For 12th May watch first strong support zone 3517 to 3525 as far as hold above this support nothing to worry for bulls .. In one level above 3550 momentum seems up, below 3550 momentum down.. Hold short if Nifty spot break 3517.. Our strategy for 12th May sell at high (S.L 3610) buy on deep (S.L 3517) .. Resistance for up move at 3582/3595/3610/3640.. Supports at 3525/3517/3460/3450/3410..
The much awaited correction sets in from higher levels. As it has been happening throughout this rally, I won't be surprised if the markets again find some support at lower levels, in this case around 35 and continue higher screwing up shorts again. The only threat to this rally can come on the breach of 3342~ (the lower yellow line) which is the two week low. Today's advance decline is bad though - 323 advancing to 905 declining.
The Indian market opened on higher note and saw selling pressure at higher levels and close in red zone.For coming session one watch 3479-3535 zone for bounces if nifty close below 3478 levels, we can see more selling pressure and it can test 3240-3150 zones. On the other side 3620-3650 zone will act as resistances .
The Asian market is mixed but the US performed well above 2% gains. The SGX Nifty suggesting a positive opening of 1% gains to our markets. The Nifty is close to the crucial point at 3650-60 level. The NIFTY is unlikely to hold above the 3680 level.
The Nifty is facing resistance at 3654-58 level and the support can be expected at 3571-73 and at 3541-39 level for this day.
The RIL is in the previous suggested levels. The SBI results are good despite a lower growth in the NIM but the concern for Bhat is to manage the unprecedented growth in the deposits as the Pvt. Sector bank failures in the west prompted the depositors to choose the PSU mammoth.
The SBI is good above 1375 and weak below 1347. The support exists at 1256-58 level but today it is likely to stay above 1296 level and may cross and close above the 1350 mark. In case it stays above 1350 the scrip has the potential to cross 1475 and then 1507.
The ICICI is likely to get support from SBI mood to cross the 536 mark but face resistance at 544 level.
The Relcap is good above 594 and weak below 573.
The Tata steel corus impact can be seen today. The inventory loss due to order cancellation by the consortium and the revival of the unit, fate of the employees will impact. Technically the scrip is Bull grip but the sudden developments impose pressure on the up move. So the counter may face resistance at 288 and the support is at 209-11 level once the 264 support is broken decisively.
The Govt. plans to ask ONGC to fill the loss of the OMCs may pressure this counter though the crude is ruling high above 58 dollars per barrel. So ONGC unlikely to stay above 900 mark due to this developments, even it stays not good to buy, but has good bottom support at 845-48 level and a series of reasonable supports.
The HUL bogged down by the private labels and more in future may place the stock at 202 and 194 level in future.
| Take advantage of the sharp decline in share prices witnessed in 2008. |
S. Hamsini Amritha
BL Research Bureau When the foreign institutional investors were busy selling in the equity markets for the better part of last year, promoters weren't exactly sitting idle.
A study on S & P CNX 500 companies indicates that two out of every five companies have witnessed an increase in promoter holding over the year ended March 2009. Equity holdings as of March 2009 are available for 484 of the CNX 500 companies.
Making use of offersIt has not always been open market purchases. More often than not such increases in promoters' stake have come about through rights offers where they ended up subscribing to shares of entitlements surrendered by other shareholders.
Take the instances of Hindalco and Tata Motors. Promoters ended up increasing their holdings from 31 per cent to 36 per cent and 33 per cent to 47 per cent respectively, to ensure that the rights issue was fully subscribed.
A number of open offers that came through in this period also increased the promoter holding, especially the stakes held by foreign promoters.
Ranbaxy-Daiichi Sankyo and UTV-Walt Disney are two such prominent open offers where foreign promoters increased their shareholding to obtain controlling majority in the companies.
Japanese pharma major Daiichi Sankyo, increased its stake to 64 per cent by way of open offer after acquiring the 34 per cent share holding from Ranbaxy's promoters.
In the case of Walt Disney, it held 32 per cent equity interest in UTV Software as of March 2008.
Through the open offer route, the former increased its interest to about 51 per cent in the latter.
Most promoters took full advantage of the sharp decline in share prices witnessed in 2008.
Price advantageThey increased stakes in their companies, when the prices were tumbling down and in a sense this instilled some faith in the investors, as well as helped the stock prices recover from their respective lows!
Promoters of Mahindra and Mahindra steadily pumped up their holdings from 22 per cent to 29 per cent between April 2008 and March 2009, when its share price plummeted from Rs 695 to Rs 383 in this period.
This exercise is evident even in cases of Essar Shipping, Era Infrastructure, Zandu Pharma and Gitanjali Gems, where promoters hiked their holdings by about 20-30 per cent, constantly throughout the year.
Reducing stakesHowever, the period also promoters' shareholding decline in 128 companies.
From Rs 116, in October 2008 Unitech's prices declined to Rs 34 by March 31, 2009 as promoters offloaded their stake to mitigate the liquidity crunch.
Companies such as Akruti City, Fortis Healthcare and Reliance Power have also witnessed 5-10 per cent decline in promoter stakes.
Promoters' holdings appear to have stabilised during February and March 2009, which coincided with the abatement of the relentless fall in stock prices witnessed till then
- Buy NIFTY Spot @ 3681 SL=3659 Targets=3693, 3730, 3742, 3760, 3775, 3791,
- Buy BANKNIFTY Spot @ 5519 SL=5482 Targets=5538, 5602, 5621, 5653, 5679, 5705
- Buy RELIANCE Spot @ 1919 SL=1908 Targets=1924, 1940, 1945, 1954, 1961, 1967,
- Buy SBI Spot @ 1359 SL=1347 Targets=1365, 1385, 1391, 1401, 1409, 1418,
- Buy EDUCOMP Spot @ 2339 SL=2320 Targets=2350, 2384, 2395, 2412, 2426, 2439,
- Buy ONGC Spot @ 903 SL=897 Targets=906, 916, 919, 923, 927, 931,
- Buy ICICIBANK Spot @ 542 SL=537 Targets=546, 556, 559, 565, 569, 573,
- Buy RELINFRA Spot @ 803 SL=793 Targets=808, 826, 831, 840, 847, 854,
- Buy RELCAPITAL Spot @ 595 SL=589 Targets=598, 610, 613, 619, 623, 628,
- Buy DLF Spot @ 248 SL=246 Targets=250, 254, 256, 258, 260, 262,
- Buy ABAN Spot @ 454 SL=448 Targets=458, 470, 474, 480, 485, 490,
- Buy BHEL Spot @ 1698 SL=1684 Targets=1706, 1732, 1740, 1753, 1763, 1773,
- Buy INFOSYSTCH Spot @ 1555 SL=1543 Targets=1561, 1581, 1587, 1598, 1606, 1614,
- Buy NTPC Spot @ 193 SL=192 Targets=194, 195, 196, 197, 197, 198,
- Buy BHARTIARTL Spot @ 779 SL=774 Targets=782, 791, 794, 798, 802, 806,
- Buy ITC Spot @ 191 SL=190 Targets=191, 193, 194, 195, 196, 197,
- Buy LT Spot @ 998 SL=990 Targets=1003, 1017, 1022, 1029, 1035, 1041,
- Buy ABB Spot @ 481 SL=477 Targets=482, 488, 489, 492, 494, 497,
- Buy HDFCBANK Spot @ 1161 SL=1151 Targets=1166, 1184, 1189, 1198, 1205, 1212,
- Buy TATASTEEL Spot @ 297 SL=294 Targets=300, 306, 308, 312, 314, 317,
- Buy MARUTI Spot @ 839 SL=834 Targets=842, 850, 853, 857, 861, 864,
- Buy TATAMOTORS Spot @ 272 SL=269 Targets=273, 277, 278, 280, 282, 283,
- Buy WIPRO Spot @ 376 SL=371 Targets=379, 388, 391, 395, 399, 403,
- Buy AXISBANK Spot @ 619 SL=614 Targets=622, 632, 634, 639, 643, 647,
- Buy CAIRN Spot @ 221 SL=219 Targets=222, 225, 227, 228, 230, 231,
- Sell NIFTY Spot @ 3647 SL=3666 Targets=3632, 3613, 3602, 3564, 3553, 3534, 3519, 3503,
- Sell BANKNIFTY Spot @ 5461 SL=5492 Targets=5435, 5403, 5384, 5320, 5301, 5269, 5243, 5217,
- Sell RELIANCE Spot @ 1904 SL=1912 Targets=1897, 1888, 1883, 1867, 1862, 1853, 1847, 1840,
- Sell SBI Spot @ 1341 SL=1350 Targets=1332, 1322, 1316, 1296, 1290, 1280, 1272, 1264,
- Sell EDUCOMP Spot @ 2309 SL=2324 Targets=2295, 2278, 2267, 2233, 2222, 2205, 2192, 2178,
- Sell ONGC Spot @ 894 SL=899 Targets=891, 886, 883, 873, 870, 865, 862, 858,
- Sell ICICIBANK Spot @ 533 SL=538 Targets=529, 524, 520, 510, 507, 501, 497, 493,
- Sell RELINFRA Spot @ 787 SL=795 Targets=780, 771, 765, 747, 742, 733, 726, 719,
- Sell RELCAPITAL Spot @ 585 SL=590 Targets=580, 574, 571, 559, 556, 550, 546, 541,
- Sell DLF Spot @ 244 SL=246 Targets=242, 240, 238, 233, 232, 229, 227, 226,
- Sell ABAN Spot @ 443 SL=449 Targets=438, 432, 429, 416, 413, 407, 402, 397,
- Sell BHEL Spot @ 1675 SL=1687 Targets=1665, 1652, 1644, 1618, 1610, 1597, 1587, 1577,
- Sell INFOSYSTCH Spot @ 1536 SL=1546 Targets=1528, 1518, 1511, 1491, 1485, 1475, 1466, 145
- Sell NTPC Spot @ 192 SL=193 Targets=191, 190, 190, 188, 188, 187, 186, 186,
- Sell BHARTIARTL Spot @ 771 SL=776 Targets=768, 763, 760, 752, 749, 744, 741, 737,
- Sell ITC Spot @ 189 SL=190 Targets=188, 187, 187, 184, 184, 183, 182, 181,
- Sell LT Spot @ 985 SL=992 Targets=979, 972, 967, 953, 948, 941, 935, 929,
- Sell ABB Spot @ 476 SL=478 Targets=473, 471, 469, 463, 462, 459, 457, 454,
- Sell HDFCBANK Spot @ 1145 SL=1153 Targets=1138, 1129, 1123, 1106, 1100, 1091, 1084, 1077,
- Sell TATASTEEL Spot @ 292 SL=294 Targets=289, 286, 283, 277, 275, 271, 269, 266,
- Sell MARUTI Spot @ 831 SL=835 Targets=828, 823, 821, 812, 810, 805, 802, 798,
- Sell TATAMOTORS Spot @ 268 SL=270 Targets=266, 264, 263, 259, 258, 256, 254, 253,
- Sell WIPRO Spot @ 368 SL=372 Targets=364, 360, 357, 348, 345, 341, 337, 333,
- Sell AXISBANK Spot @ 611 SL=615 Targets=607, 603, 600, 591, 588, 583, 579, 576,
- Sell CAIRN Spot @ 218 SL=220 Targets=217, 215, 214, 211, 210, 208, 207, 205,
Daily Market Outlook: 12 May 2009
Inline with other Asian equity markets, Indian markets also started the day on the positive note but afterwards as the other Asian markets declined from the day’s high Sensex also witnessed it only directive and that was southward. While the Sensex closed at 11682.99 (Down 193.44 points) Nifty closed at 3554.60(Down 66.10 points). While the decline in Asian markets towards the fag end of their closing resulted in some decline in Indian markets, the weak opening of European market made it sure that it will not bounce back. On the sectoral front, all the indices closed in red. Market breadth was negative with 1573 declines and only 919 advances. Tomorrow we expect the market to open on a flat note.
NIFTY (3554.6)
Resistance : 3590 / 3630 / 3655 / 3710 / 3755
Support : 3515 / 3490 / 3450 / 3375
SENSEX
Resistance : 11905-35 / 12050 / 12185
Support : 11525-05 / 11370-55
NIFTY FUT (3552)
Resistance : 3600 / 3630 / 3665 / 3700
Support : 3505 / 3475 / 3455 / 3425
MKT COMMENTS
NIFTY FUT OI flat with 20% decreasing volumes indicating unwinding of long positions plus forming of short positions for STBT.
We expect NIFTY FUT to trade negative.
On Tuesday,Opening is Flat to Down,
Stay Short Below 3570,Sl Abv 3585,Tgt 3540-3505-3455-3440,
Sustain Above 3590,Buy with Sl Below 3575,Tgt 3630-3645-3685-3710.
BANKNIFTY
Sell Below 5285,Sl Abv 5330,Tgt 5235-5150
Buy Abv 5430,Sl Blw 5385,Tgt 5510-5555
BUY
EDELWEISS Above 335
PETRONET Above 55
NTPC Above 185,Tgt 189/93/95/99
BOI Above 238,Tgt 241/45,Sl 235
HPCL Above 250,Tgt 255/60/65,Sl 245
ITCAbove 190,Tgt 193/95/98,Sl 185
SELL
BIOCON Below 150,Tgt 145/40/35+,Sl 155
GRASIM Below 1725,Tgt 1705/1690/70/55/40++,Sl 1745
HINDALCO Below 66,Tgt 65/62/58,Sl 70
BHARTISHIP Below 101,Tgt 96/94,Sl 104
CROMPTON Below 160,Tgt 158/56/54,Sl 163
SBIN (1258),Tgt 1210/1190,Sl 1285
FUTURES
Buy BAJAJHIND@ 109,Sl 107,Tgt 113/13.8/14.9/16/17/18.2/19 (Lot Size : 5700)
Sell SBIN@ 1260,Sl 1275,Tgt 1247/40/30/20/10+++ (Lot Size : 264)
Sell BHARTI(767.4)@ 773/78,Sl 787,Tgt 757/49/43/39
Sell LNT(991)@1010/1000,Sl 1025,Tgt 985/75/65
BHEL(1648)
Sell@ 1670/65,Sl 1695,Tgt 1645/30+
Buy@ 1615/20,Sl 1595,Tgt 1650/60
World Markets - Astrologically
Crude Oil / Gold / Silver
As far as Crude Oil is concerned, In December 2008, we had forecasted that Crude is heading for US$65/- per barrel in a multi week rally. We advised long term investors to take Long position on every decline @ US$36 - US$40 per barrel. As far as weekly movement is concerned, minor corrective decline is expected on Monday (11th May) but again Crude Oil will bounce back. Gold may open higher on Monday followed by Profit booking till 14th May. Silver is looking positive on 12th and 15th May while profit bookimng may be seen on 14th May. Both Gold and Silver are in favout of rise till 18th-19th May 2009.
US Dollar/ Indian Rupee ( USDINR)
Astrologically, as far as Indian Rupee - US Dollor is concerned, Indian Rupee is looking weak in May and early June with occasional rallies. During current week, INR may show some strength between 12th and 14th May but US $ will regain strength after 15th May.
US Markets
Astrologically, Both DJI and Nasdaq are preparing for corrective decline during the Month of May 2009. During this week, Market likely to upward U-turn on 12th May and likely to decline in later part of 14th May 2009. Both Naswdaq and DJI are also expected to recover on 15th May 2009.
In this particular post the Charts on BSE Sensex posted are from Intraday to Monthly .This extensive 6 chart posting has been done to show the effect of this current explosive rally on all time lengths right from shortest time-intrday chart to longest time length-monthly chart. A reader will understand by this posting the poweress of technical analysis.
BSE Sensex Intraday Chart Till 11/05/2009
In the Intraday Chart of BSE Sensex an up trend is clearly seen, this has been indicated in the above chart by uptrend lines.The angle of trendline hints at perfect timewise and price wise rally in the BSE Sensex. As long as the above trendline is intact, the market may resume the uptrend.The current support on the above uptrend line is around 11750-11850.
BSE Sensex Daily Chart Highlighted Till 11/05/2009
The rally of this week has clearly negated the Dark cloud cover on BSE Sensex and went ahead to a high of 12272. BSE Sensex has sucessfully broken out of asending channel the second time. First time it broke on downside was Dt. 22/04/2009, but again went back into the ascending channel giving momentum to the powerful rally.
As long as BSE Sensex remains above 11700,bulls & longs can be comfortable. Below 11700-11500 bears may again become active.It seems this week volatility will be the name of the game.
The candle of 04/05/2009 was on a gap up. The range of the big bull candle of 04/05/2009 is 11635-12161.The friday candle of 09/05/2009 was a bearish candle.So if the correction persists then it may take BSE Sensex to 11635 and on further weakness it may close the gap of to 11400-11700.If again BSE Sensex goes back in ascending channel or rally moves forward then 12686 may be achieved.
Structure Of Sensex
Since low of 7700 in November 2008, Higher tops & Higher bottoms structure was seen in the daily chart. Structurally from January 2009 again it has given way to Lower tops & Lower bottoms. Again the 10700 is a pivot point & intermediate weekly support/resistance convergence area. Sideways struture has mix of both (Higher Tops - Higher Bottoms, Lower tops - Lower bottoms). The range between 11400-11700 is good support zone for BSE Sensex on reaction to downside.
Momentum Indicator /Oscillator
Currently in the Daily chart the KST momentum indicator is in overbought zone, indicating a strong rally. KST Oscillator indicate bulls have a upper hand as of now.
Note: "The KST was in overbought zone most of the time in the trending market of 2005-2007. But in the daily BSE Sensex chart shows that since fall in January 2008, the KST indicator broke the zero line from the upside and migrated to south - oversold zone. Since January 2008 KST Indicator has been in oversold zone. At every rally in the BSE Sensex KST indicator briefly touches the zero line or equilibrium line, but again fall back to form new trough in the oversold zone. This phenomen is indicated in the Daily Sensex Chart with down arrows, in earlier BSE Sensex Posts."
The volumes From November 2008 to January 2009 are descent, they look more of accumulation . But accumulation can be authenticated on the descent rally. On 10/02/2009 highest volume was seen.The March 2009 rally now seems to authenticate the volume accumulation since November 2008. In April 2009 the rally has been on a rising volume which is good indicator that this rally is a powerful one.
Trendline
Since high of 21206, in January 2008, a clear descending channel is seen in the above daily chart of the Sensex. BSE Sensex attempted breaking out on upside on 4 occassions, dated -16/05/2008, 12/08/2008, 05/09/2008, 12/02/2009. But on 16/03/2009 BSE Sensex did successfully crossovered the descending channel on the upside.
BSE Sensex on 6/03/2009 made a low of 8047, thus covering 61.8% of the total fall and on 08/04/2009 crossed 10597, thus covering 50% retracement of total fall.
Moving Averages
In the daily chart of BSE Sensex the last week all moving average from 13ema,34ema,50sma & 100sma were successfully crossed.The week of 20/04/2009 to 24/04/2009 proved to be giving tough resistance to 200.But on 24/04/2009 last friday 200 dma has been crossed by BSE Sensex in daily chart.As long as BSE Sensex is above 200dma bullish ness persists.
Sensex Key Support Level-- ----11635,11798, 11500
Currently in Weekly BSE Sensex Chart, the weekly closing was 11876 a doji star. Unless weekly high of 12272 is crossed ,rrom for correction on the downside may remain.The upside breakout in weekly descending channel is clearly visible.The current weekly candle has support of 13 ema & 50 sma ,and stiff resitance of 89ema which is at around 12417. As long as the weekly descending channel sustains higher target on BSE Sensex can be said to be achievable.On further persistance of rally, the target of 13420 on symmetrical triangle may become achievable.
Old Overview of BSE Sensex Weekly Chart.
Momentum Indicator /Oscillator Of Weekly Chart
In the weekly chart momentum Indicator KST has almost given a breakout on the upside to overbought zone.The breakout above zeroline is indicative of good times ahead for bulls. Weekly KST Indicator needs to spend more time in overbought zone to further affirm bullish ness on a weekly level.
Currently the intermediate tone can still said to be bearish in the BSE Sensex. More clarification in coming weeks may lead to a proper conclusion of intermediate trend of BSE Sensex.
The January 2009 candle was bearish.While February 2009 was also bearish .March 2009 was a bullish candle ,thus forming Bullish Engulfing Pattern on monthly BSe Sensex Chart.The April 2009 is bullish belt hold line candle pattern.Currently May 2009 candle is again a shooting star.But real call can be taken on May 2009 candle when the month ends.
Momentum Indicator /Oscillator For Monthly Chart
In the monthly BSE Sensex chart the Momentum Indicators or Oscillators KST is in very over sold zone.The KST momentum Oscillators has given an indication of bullish crossover in monthly BSE Sensex chart .Hence May 2009 is an interesting month of watch on Monthly chart.
BSE Sensex Monthly Chart Till 09/05/2009
As has been indicated may times in all old BSE Sensex posts, that bull market or bull trend in BSE Sensex cannot said to be over for longterm till monthly uptrend line2 drawn from low from year 1981 gets broken. And so far it does not appear to have broken. So long term BSE Sensex is still bullish.
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