news

(NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View:

Some observations :

-- > Gap support at 11635-11430 was not broken today with a low of 11621 /11625 in the last two sessions.

-- > Since the bottom at 8k the momentum trendline has been supporting all dips. We have noticed around 4-5 instances where it has kissed the line and bounced back sharply.

-- > The bounce back has generally crossed the recent highs and made a move of the range size. 10715-11300/500 saw a move to 12272 which is almost 600-800 points range.

--- > Current range is around 11625-12272 which if broken points to another 600 points move in case 12300 is taken of. This level also coincides with 12900 which is the 38.2% fibo level. So upside could be 12900 + - 150 points.

-- > A move below 11600 and the trendline would have severe negative implications as then we may retrace back almost 50% of the entire upmove from 8k-12.3k.

-- > If we see the charts closely every such move has been followed by a gap-up above the previous highs. So in case that happens the gap levels would become the stoploss.

-- > We have seen almost 4-5 instances of support from the momentum line any more attempts to stick to the line may turn to be fatal and disastrous also so be extremely cautious if indices go below the line.

In simple terms 11600 and 12300 are support and resistance zones which if crossed convincingly would decide the next 500-800 point move but the technical setup also suggests it would yet again be difficult to trade it. The trend is still up so the probabilities of 12900 seem to be higher ( maybe market knows the result).

Option traders can look for some strategies like strangle,straddles only concern is the pricing is too high as of now.

External Observations :

The elections would be the next big consideration which may hit the markets with a lot of uncertainty. I wont try to decipher the sentiment change in all the possibilities of NDA UPA third front and juggling.

Simple observations are a 5-8 % move up or a5-8 % downmove if markets see a possibility of a stable and lasting government or a huge alliance which can crumble before it forms.

On the other hand its also possible that markets might have discounted the possibility of a favorable result and may do nothing.

The best thing to do is do nothing !!! Stick to the part of the investment holding done at extremely low levels and be ready to look for fresh opportunities.

Volatility may remain extremely high so traders should keeep very low volumes. Be very careful in the next 8-10 sessions.

Mkt buzz is a good enough gap-up action may be seen on thursday itself after exit polls which are tilting towards a favorable result which will set the tone for next week as well..... Just a buzz not a tech view :)

Stocks to watchout for :

FORTIS HEALTH

The stock has broken out on short term charts. Traders can take an exposure at 76 with a stop of 71 tgt 90 on closing basis. Investors can also take part of the exposure with a long term view.

Some trades only for next 1-3 sessions and take care or avoid if you are not game with risk and volatility

INDIA Infoline buy above 93 stop of 90 tgt 100 +

HDFC Bank above 1210 stop of 1180 tgt 1250+

BOmbay Dyeing above 215 stop of 210 tgt 225 +

Transport Corp above 54.3 stop of 51.5 tgt 58.

Small caps which can move up Ashapura , Hercules Hoists.

Bharti Airtel, RIL, PNB , Axis , Maruti are few large caps which have broken out above recent highs and could propel the sensex higher.

Crude is trading above $55 levels which is a bullish breakout levels as mentioned in my last post

Quick Update on Crude and currently testing the next level of resistance $60. Any breakout

above $60 will test $68 in short term and the targets are extracted from weekly charts by applying

our 13,34,55 EMA Principle to Crude Weekly Charts

Weekly EMA levels for Crude

$53 - 13 Week EMA

$60 - 34 Week EMA

$68 - 55 Week EMA

MY CHART

Nifty :: Pre Election result rally..!!! We told in our yesterday post that as far as stay above 3525 nothing to worry for bulls, Nifty made double bottom at 3534 and move up fast… Be cautious at every high.. Still long bearish divergence is there.. Exactly same situation like 2007 December.. No dough about up move and that’s why stay in buy but only in deep with strictly S.L 3640 (OR above 3717).. Above 3717 momentum once again turns up for shot term.. Resistance for up move at 3703/3717/3732/3760/3802.. Supports at 3640/3625/3582/ 3534..

ss

The 5 day ATR is now at 100~ and is less than the 20 day ATR which is around 125~ It is interesting to see that on previous occasions, a drop in the 5 day ATR was followed by an explosive move upward. Maybe the market has a surprise in store for shorts?! Whatever, this is going to be the most interesting week for sure.

(Inder Bhatia)

The Indian market opened on flat note but saw smart buying afternoon session and close with handsome gains. For coming session if nifty trade above 3686 it can test 3720-3748 zone on the upside .On the other side trading below 3600 it can test 3578-3520 zones.

(B.N.RAO -THE STOCKS DOCTOR)

The markets took the heat of selling pressure from the Bears as well as from the Bull unwinding in the afternoon kept the indices low but the beauty part of the yester day trade was that Nifty did not collapse despite of such sustained selling. The market absorbed comfortable the selling pressure.
The notable gainers of big name are – Tulip IT and Nucleus software, AuroPharma, JindalSAW, Havells…etc. The reality sector and the metals were worst hit.

Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter:
The Following scrips covered in my yesterday posting: The high, low, closings of 11-05-09:

Nifty 3660.2 3534.55 3554.60
ICICIBANK 547.75 513 523.35
RIL 1928 1850.1 1861.60
REL infra 792.90 746.55 763.0
DLF 244.80 226.10 228.1
T.Steel 288.80 267.20 270.65
SAIL 127.15 118.20 120.15
JP ASSOCIAT 144.70 133.30 135.50
Relcap 595 540.8 546.50
ONGC 903.80 872.50 879.7
HUL 236.50 226 227.15
I may be right or wrong, You may like it or not but “No argument with the ticker-NEVER”

(Nevil Dedhia)

Future. Nifty levels:-

Pivot Point: 3643 ; Resistance: 3749 ; Support:3583

Positional view of Trend changing stocks

Stocks to Buy at Lower levels.

FINANC.TEC. @ 748.72 , Sl 760.00 ,Cmp719.65

HDFC @ 1787.13 , Sl 1798.00 ,Cmp1710.30

INFOSYS TECH @ 1567.65 , Sl 1500.00 ,Cmp1597.95

RELIANCE @ 1923.67 , Sl 1838.00 ,Cmp1958.30

Stocks to Short at Higher levels.

HERO HONDA @ 1200.70 , Sl 1223.00 ,Cmp1194.20

BAJ HOLD INV @ 355.72 , Sl 362.00 ,Cmp354.40

Previous days High Crossed: ALLAHABAD BK , BHARAT PET , BHEL , BNK OF INDIA , FEDERAL BANK , GAIL (I) LTD , HDFC , HIND.PETRO , HINDALCO , ICICI BANK , INFOSYS TECH , MARUTISUZUK , WIPRO LTD ,REL PET ,MPHASIS LTD

Previous days Low Crossed: ASIAN PAINTS , EXIDE IND. , HERO HONDA , INDIAN HOTEL,UNITED PHOSH , DABUR (I) , CONTAIN.CORP

Stocks to Watch: SUPREME PETR , JM FINANCIAL , ETC NETWORK

Buy Call Option: JP Hydro of SP 40 @ 4.25 , SL 2 , TGT 6.50 , Cmp 41.75

Buy Put Option: Rolta of SP 80 @ 5.85, SL 3, TGT 8.50, Cmp 84.10

Long Term: Buy WIRE& WIRLES Cmp 15.68 , Sl 12.70, Tgt 20.20 (Agreesive above 17.70)

SREI Infrastructure>46.25,47,48 sl 43.9
Buy Dabur>111.1,112.8,113.9 sl 109.8
Sell DLF<228.8,225.5,221>122.5,123.6,125.9 sl 119.8
Buy ICICI bank>565.1,568.8,574.8,586 sl 557.8
Buy 3iinfotech>62.1,64.5,68.8 sl 58.8
Buy Fortis>77.1,78.8,797 sl 74.9 (one can hold this stock as benefitting a lot from medico tourism flux to India)
Buy Axis bank>671.1,678.8,689.9,694 sl 665.5

(chandru)

13.05.2009

Yesterday market huge downside open and after 10.30 market will go uptrend only . The Nifty Intraday upside morethen 100 points from lower levels. Today also market will go uptrand only ,It wil continue rally upto 3720, 3740, 3780 and 3820 levels. The previous day Close Nifty fut 3697 level. The nifty will trade above the support levels. When the Nifty will crass downside 3660 level again market will come downside upto 3620 levels. Tommorrow tamilnadu election and also this weekend Election results coming. Beacause the market heavy volatile and range bound markets.

Nifty Spot

R-3636/3737/3794.
S-3579/3478/3421.

Nifty Fut

R-3646/3754/3812.
S-3588/3480/3422.

Sensex

R-11993/12630/12563.
S-11790/11423/11220.

Yesterday Our Buy Call Full target achived .Enjoy the profits. Today Nifty Buy abv 3680 Sl 3640 Tgt 3700,3720,3740,3780 and 3820 levels. Nifty Sell Below 3640 Sl 3680 Tgt 3620,3590,3570,3540 and 3520 Levels.

When your profited company plz book profits inthis levels. Anytime market will come downside. Due to Election Results andalso New government forming. Every Dip to buy valuable companys. ( Nifty 50 Companies).

SantyWell, as described in previous post, nifty got good support above pivot level near 3610 and traded higher all day through meeting target at 3680. As we have been seeing nifty is trading in a range from 3727 to 3615. Tomorrow nifty could either break the range and go higher or could test the resistance (3715) and come back down. So, watch the opening level. If nifty opens just near today’s close and goes straight down, then SELL at 3665/75 with stop loss at 3710 for target at 3625. But if Nifty comes back to 3630/50 zone, and goes higher (check higher highs and higher lows pattern in small time frame, may be 5/15 mins frame)then BUY above 3645 with stop loss below 3615 for target at 3700/3710.

(SVShah)

NIFTY (3681.1)

Resistance : 3735 / 3770 / 3810

Support : 3635 / 3580 / 3540 / 3475

SENSEX (12158.03)

Resistance : 12220 / 12360 / 12450 / 12560

Support : 11990 / 11790 / 11600 / 11420

NIFTY FUT (3689.95) : Nifty is looking range bound between 3500-3800

Resistance : 3750 / 3820

Support : 3640 / 3585 / 3470

BANK NIFTY (5581.3)

Resistance : 5700 / 5810

Support : 5490 / 5375 / 5175

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI UP 1.66% with 21% increasing volumes indicating not only short covering but forming of long positions too.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade positive.

On Wednesday,Opening is Flat to Up,

Stay Long Above 3660/65,Sl Below 3645,Tgt 3705/35/60/95,

Sustain Below 3640/35,Sell with Sl Above 3655,Tgt 3610/3585/65/35

BUY

INDIAINFO Above 90

GAIL Above 270

SUZLON Above 80,Tgt 84/86/88++,Sl 77

KOTAKBANK Above 485/90,Tgt 500/10/15+,Sl 475

BOMBAYDYIENG Above 210,Tgt 220/25,Sl 215

TITAN,Tgt 890/900,Sl 820

SBIN (1295),Tgt 1310/25+,Sl Blw 1280

BAJAJAUTO Above 685/90,Tgt 700/15/25+,Sl 675

BOB Above 335,Tgt 340/50/60,Sl 325

SIEMENS Above 325,Tgt 330/40/50+,Sl 315

SELL

TATACHEM Below 175,Tgt 171/68/65,Sl 180

ONGC Below 880,Tgt 870/65/55/50+,Sl 890

BIOCON Below 150,Tgt 145/35/30+,Sl 155

FUTURES

ONGC (879.9) : Sell@ 895/900,Sl 905,Tgt 885/75/65

SBI (1258) :

Sell@ 1280/90,SL 1305,Tgt 1245/35

Buy@ 1225/35,SL 1215,Tgt 1250/60/70+

COMEX GOLD (JUN): Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels.The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. The market tilt is slightly negative with the close under the pivot. The next upside objective is 923.2. The next area of resistance is around 918.5 and 923.2, while 1st support hits today at 908.9 and below there at 904.1.

COMEX SILVER (JUL): Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels.The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. The next upside objective is 1425.6. The next area of resistance is around 1412.2 and 1425.6, while 1st support hits today at 1376.8 and below there at 1354.7.