NEWSLETTER

As already mentioned yesterday "Nifty has given multiple bearish breakouts from 2 different patterns setting target of 3080-3150 in coming days. However, technical recovery to 3440 is not ruled out since many stocks are oversold & ripe for recovery. It may also be noted that any close above 3520 will negate the short term bearish outlook of the market. ". Nifty opened on a positive note since Asian markets were trading on a bullish note. Nifty opened with a gap of 40 points & continued its upward journey as the day progressed. Towards the fag end of the day Nifty rallied sharply from 3425 to 3486 before settling down at 3480, about 117 points above the previous close.

As far as, extreme short term charts are concerned, with this sharp move Nifty has bounced back in the pattern from where it had given bearish breakout yesterday thus negating the targets of 3300 & below. Now onus has shifted back to 3520 which has been a crucial resistance for last few days & Nifty has to clear this hurdle of 3520 to proceed further towards 3750. On bearish side, close below 3370 will negate the bullish outlook temporarily.

As for as bar reversal in Daily charts are concerned, stocks like Unitech, Tata Steel, RIIL, L&T, Sterlite, Indiabulls, BHEL, TELCO, Hund Unilever, JSW Steel, ITC have given "Upward Bar Reversal" while R Power, Grasim, Jai Corp, IOC, REI agro, MTNL, Alkali Metal, Vishal Info, GHCL Zylog, IDFC, Shanti Gears, Dish TV, Ceat , JSL, Man Ind., Noida Toll Bridge have shown spurt during the day with unusually high volumes.

Sector wise, most of the banks, financials, steel, sugar, IT, power, construction, cements stocks were among the top gainers which closed in positive territory. On the other hand, select media, oil, metal, shipping stocks were under selling pressure to close in negative zone during the day. As far as, A/D data is concerned it was in favor of bulls in the ratio of 8:5 with 463 declines & 741 advances during the day.

In nutshell, Nifty has bounced back in the trading range of 3375 & 3520 from where it had given bearish breakout & now it is evenly placed between the resistance of 3520 & support of 3375, breakout on either side is capable of giving a move of 225-275 points. The best strategy should be to focus on select banking, IT & infrastructure stocks which have given bullish breakout in EST charts.


* NIFTY/ SENSEX !
Nifty - Bounce Back in Pattern / Now watch for 3520 and 3300 for Bearish Breakout
Fresh Bullish Breakout in Many Bank/ Infra/ Sugar Stocks - Be Highly Scrip Specific

* JP ASSOCIATES !
Target of 150+ maintained-Buy on every decline with SL

* IB REAL EST. !
Mildly bullish in hourly charts-Likely to touch 140 in coming days

* ICICI BANK !
All set to cross 505 in near term-Buy on declines with SL

* SAIL !
Strong support at 105-Bearish breakout can wipe off Rs.10/- in coming days

* DLF LTD. !
Bearish pattern with support at 220-Breakout may wipe off Rs.20/- in near term

* DISH TV !
Minor resistance at 33-Breakout will target 38-40 in near future

* RPL !
Bullish indications in hourly charts-Likely to cross 118 in near term


* SESA GOA !
Bearish but oversold-Technical recovery to 116-117 likely

* R POWER !
Short term support broken-Likely to touch 117-118 in near future

* BOI !
Bearish but oversold-Technical recovery to 246 likely


* HCC !
Bullish pattern with resistance at 57-Breakout may target 63-64 in near term

* IVRCL INFRA !
Short term indicators favor recovery to 165-166/Use declines for buying with SL

* RELIANCE INDS. !
EST resistance at 1840-Bullish breakout can target 2000 in coming days

* ZEE ENT. !
Technical recovery to 122 likely-Buy on declines with SL

* SBI !
Short term resistance at 1320-Bullish breakout will target 1425+

* TCS !
All set to cross 675-Use declines for buying with SL

* IOB !
Minor support at 63-Bearish breakout can wipe off Rs.7-8/- in near term

* HCL TECH. !
EST indicators favor rise to 138-140/Buy on declines with SL

* INDIAN BANK !
Short term charts favor recovery to 106-110/Buy gradually on declines with SL

* INFOSYS !
Overbought in hourly charts-Corrective decline to 1482 likely

* HPCL !
Bullish pattern in hourly charts-Another close above 275 may target 298 in coming sessions

* TATA POWER !
Bullish breakout in hourly charts-Likely to cross 950 in coming sessions

* SUN PHARMA !
Heading for 1350-Buy on declines till 1240 with SL


Second week of May 2009 will start from 4th May 2009 and will end on 8th May 2009.

Planetary position during Second week of May 2009
Sun will transit from Aries.
Mercury will transit from Taurus.
Venus will transit from Pisces.
Moon will transit from Leo, Virgo and Libra.
Mars will transit from Pisces.
Rahu will transit from Capricorn.
Jupiter will transit from Aquarius.
Retrograde Saturn will transit in Leo.
Ketu will transit in Cancer.

Prediction - http://stockmarketprediction.blogspot.com/2009/02/bulls-will-back-bse-sensex-will-touch.html

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Stock Market Prediction for 4th May 2009

Transiting Moon will be passing through Leo Zodiac sign. Transiting Moon will be in applying aspect with Transiting Sun, indicates Market will be volatile up to 11.00 so be careful. Market May recover from Intra day low. Market may steady or up side after 11.20.








Stock Market Prediction for 5th May 2009

Transiting Moon will be passing through Virgo Zodiac sign. Transiting Moon will be in applying aspect with Transiting Mercury, indicates Market may steady or up side between 10.00 and 10.55. Some selling pressure will come in Indian Stock Market between 12.00 to 13.05. Market will be volatile up so be careful.







Stock Market Prediction for 6th May 2009

Transiting Moon will be passing through Virgo Zodiac sign. Transiting Moon will be in applying aspect with Transiting Mars, indicates Market may open up or nearer to previous closing. Market may steady or up side up to 10.45. Some selling pressure will come in Indian Stock Market after 11.58, so be careful.







Stock Market Prediction for 7th May 2009

Transiting Moon will be passing through Virgo Zodiac sign. Moon void of course on Thursday up to 11.05, indicates Volatility will be seen in Indian Stock Market up to 11.05 but Market may steady or up side between 12.40 and 13.20. Market will be volatile so be careful.








Stock Market Prediction for 8th May 2009

Transiting Moon will be passing through Libra Zodiac sign. Transiting Moon will be in applying aspect with Transiting Sun, indicates Market may open up or nearer to previous closing. Market may steady or up side between 11.00 and 12.30. Market will be volatile so be careful.








Technical Analysis
If Nifty will close above 3511 for two days, it may go up to 3650. Resistance Level for Nifty will be 3550, 3600 and 3650. Support Level for Nifty will be 3420, 3380 and 3350.

Resistance Level for Sensex will be 11450, 11500 and 11870. Support Level for Sensex will be 11165, 10960 and 10715.

(Inder Bhatia)

Nifty weekly chart seen breakout and close above major downward sloping line next resistances 3793 and strong support 3240-3173

Last week market close marginally lower by0.2%and Bse sensex gaining 0.7% .From last 13 trading session nifty is trading in range 3300 -3500 zone .For coming session we can see breakout or breakdown trading above 3520 it will test 3700 zone and trading below 3290 it will test 3200 zones.Nifty is still hanging around 200 day moving average it will act as support zone for bulls. For coming week closing above 3496 levels it will test 3547-3613 zone and closing below 3440 it will test 3377-3290 zone

04mayBUYFINANCIAL TECH ABOVE 706 TGT 723>739 STOPLOSS 693

BUY INFOSYS ABOVE 1512 TGT 1571>1625 STOPLOSS 1485

The Indian market opened on strong note with positive global cues and close at days high . Nifty is witnessing major resistances near 3520 zone if nifty trade above 3480 it will test 3506-3522 zone .On the lowerside trading below3420 it will test 3397-3360 zone .On hourly chart oscillator are showing divergences .This rally can be use for profit booking on every rise .





(AGB)

Last week was a short week and without too much directional action. My opinion of things has not really changed from what I thought last week, when I said that Nifty was getting ready for another move up and S&P 500 was still enclosed within the trend channel that I had tried to foresee. To get a better idea of how things might move in this week, I looked at the chart of NSE500 - which gives us a much broader view of the Indian markets - and it looks like that the up-trend in broad based markets is cooling a bit and has entered a more sedate, consolidating phase - I am attaching the chart of NSE500 - Please have a look. Apart from this - my idea of next big level in Nifty remains unchanged - 3640-3650 is still the area to watch in case of an upside break and depending upon your long term view of the markets - this could be a place to open a long term short or cover a bit of your long positions.

S&P 500 continues to be held by the channel and it's facing some good resistance on the top end of the channel. I'll consider changing my views for US markets only when I see a clear break of this channel. To make things clearer - for me a clear break would be when prices close above the trend line for 2 consecutive days. I am attaching the S&P daily chart as well. As usual, all the best for your trading.

SENSEX : (11403.25) Today Sensex face resistance at 11556, if cross 11556 then goes up to 11709 and 11861. Sensex find support at 11278, if 11278 break then fall up to 11125 and 10848.

NIFTY : (3473.95) Today Nifty face resistance at 3521, if cross 3521 then goes up to 3567 and 3613. Nifty find support at 3441, if 3441 break then fall up to 3394 and 3314.

Nifty April Futures (As on 29th April 2009) closed at 3473.95 (0.00 Premium) with a turnover of Rs 10767.47 crores, sheds 4956350 shares (-27.89%) in open interest bringing down the open interest to 12814050 shares.

Santy

Nifty acted mostly in the same way as anticipated, found support near 3380 area and traded high though-out the day touching high at 3490. Even though nifty looks bullish in all major time frames but it has been trading in a box from past 4 weeks ranging from 3285 to 3518. Nearest weekly resistance is seen at 3547 and weekly support at 3342. As long as nifty has not broken 3547, it is hard to say if this uptrend is going to continue or not. Tomorrow nifty could see indecisiveness between buyers and sellers and at the same time could see more profit taking activities. If market comes down to 3440/3420 level watch the price action and BUY near 3430 with stop loss below 3400 for target at 3480/3490.

BSE Sensex Daily Chart Highlighted Till 04/05/2009

BSE Sensex has successfully broken out of Descending Channel thus affirming bullishness as far as daily Chart is concerned. The crossing of BSE Sensex above 11400-11500 will depend on the show powerful the rally is. This Friday closing of 11403 on 30/04/2009 is a big bullish candle. This bullish candle have whetted the appetite of bulls.

The Steep ascending or uptrend channel on BSE Sensex has ruptured on the downside. But last Friday candle 24/04/2009 has again gone back into the steep uptrend channel. This fastest rally has covered an almost 3200 points from low of 8160 on 09/03/2009 to high of 11367 on 17/04/2009. In the period of 30/3/2009 -17/04/2009 many simple & runaway-gaps up have also been identified in the uptrend channel. The rally which started with a piercing line trend reversal candle pattern on 30/03/2009 has now been slowed down with another powerful trend reversal candle pattern called "Dark Cloud Cover". This Dark Cloud Cover Candle pattern is top reversal powerful candle pattern.

If BSE Sensex goes above 11500-11600 then this Dark cloud Cover Candle pattern may negate & bears may have to surrender to the bulls. This rally is very powerful as it is going ahead on a rising volume. Shorts may get squeezed if BSE Sensex goes above 11500.Yet longs should enter with stop loss only AND BOOK PERIODIC PROFITS.

BSE Sensex Daily Chart Till 04/05/2009

Structure Of Sensex
Since low of 7700 in November 2008, Higher tops & Higher bottoms structure was seen in the daily chart. Structurally from January 2009 again it has given way to Lower tops & Lower bottoms.

A Sideways struture in BSE Sensex is perceived as of now.

(Higher Tops - Higher Bottoms, Lower tops - Lower bottoms).

The range between 10200-10700 is good support zone for BSE Sensex on reaction to downside.

Momentum Indicator /Oscillator
Currently in the Daily chart the KST momentum indicator is in overbought zone, indicating a strong rally. KST Oscillator indicate bulls having a stronger hand.

Note: "The KST was in overbought zone most of the time in the trending market of 2005-2007. But in the daily BSE Sensex chart shows that since fall in January 2008, the KST indicator broke the zero line from the upside and migrated to south - oversold zone. Since January 2008 KST Indicator has been in oversold zone. At every rally in the BSE Sensex KST indicator briefly touches the zero line or equilibrium line, but again fall back to form new trough in the oversold zone. This phenomen is indicated in the Daily Sensex Chart with down arrows, in earlier BSE Sensex Posts."

Volume
The volumes From November 2008 to January 2009 are descent, they look more of accumulation . But accumulation can be authenticated on the descent rally. On 10/02/2009 highest volume was seen.The March 2009 rally now seems to authenticate the volume accumulation since November 2008.In April 2009 the rally has been on a rising volume which is good indicator that the this rally is a powerful one.

Trendline
Since high of 21206, in January 2008, a clear descending channel is seen in the above daily chart of the Sensex. BSE Sensex attempted breaking out on upside on 4 occassions, dated -16/05/2008, 12/08/2008, 05/09/2008, 12/02/2009. But on 16/03/2009 BSE Sensex did successfully crossovered the descending channel on the upside.

Retracement
Since the fall from high of 21237...January 2008,the retracements of 32%-13097, the 50%-10597 & 61.8% -8096 levels.
BSE Sensex on 6/03/2009 made a low of 8047, thus covering 61.8% of the total fall and on 08/04/2009 crossed 10597, thus covering 50% retracement of total fall.

Moving Averages
In the daily chart of BSE Sensex the last week all moving average from 13ema, 34ema, 50sma & 100sma were successfully crossed in month of March 2009. The week of 20/04/2009 to 24/04/2009 proved to be giving tough resistance to 200.But on 24/04/2009 last friday 200 dma has been crossed by BSE Sensex in daily chart.As long as BSE Sensex is above 200dma bullishness will persists.

Sensex Key Support Level-- ----10798, 10998,11211

Sensex Key Resistance Level---- 11456,11501,11578.

BSE Sensex Weekly Chart Till 04/05/2009

Currently in Weekly BSE Sensex Chart, on friday weekly closing was 11403 a bullish candle .The upside breakout in weekly descending channel is clearly visible.The current weekly candle is taking support on the weekly descending channel. As long as the weekly descending channel sustains, higher target on BSE Sensex can be said to be achievable. On further persistance of rally, the target of symmetrical triangle may become achievable.

Old Overview of BSE Sensex Weekly Chart.
In the Above Sensex Weekly Chart from the high in January 2008, BSE Sensex has been trading in Weekly Descending channel. In October 2008 sensex broke out of descending channel signalling exhaustion and since then has been trading side ways below the descending Channel. This sideways trading has given to formation of symmetrical triangle.The symmetrical triangle often referred to as side-ways or consolidation pattern. It means before embarking upon any trend, it is breather period.The last week it was indicated that we will revisit the Symmetrical Triangle once again. Since Late february 2009-insert- bseseb 08/03/2009- it was indicative that BSE Sensex may give a down fall. Hence bearish scenario was taken into account.
Symmetrical triangle though are a continuation pattern usually. But sometimes Triangles may act as a reversal pattern also. As it is Triangles are one of the most trickiest patterns. Hence we revisit the pattern in BSE Sensex Weekly and have a re-look at our targets.
This weekly Triangle has given breakout downward at 9250. So now we will consider 9250 for calculations purpose.

The calculations now stand as follows:

The base of the triangle is (High 11870-Low 7700) = 4170.

Upward target after Breakout will be (9250+4170) = 13420.
Again this target of 13420 can be said to be achievable provided the uptrend line of the descending channel is crossed by the BSE Sensex on the upside which is 11400-11500 currently.

Momentum Indicator /Oscillator
In the weekly chart momentum Indicator KST has almost given a breakout on the upside to overbought zone.The breakout above zeroline is indicative of good times ahead for bulls. But the weekly KST Indicator needs to spend more time in overbought zone to further affirm bullish ness on a weekly level.
Currently the intermediate tone can still said to be bearish in the BSE Sensex. More clarification in coming weeks may lead to a proper conclusion of intermediate trend of BSE Sensex.

BSE Sensex Monthly Chart Till 04/05/2009

The January 2009 and February 2009 Candle pattern was Bullish Engulfing Pattern.Which was left out in hindsight.The March monthly Candle was bullish belt hold line candle pattern. April 2009 is one more big bullish candle. In the BSE Sensex monthly chart the sensex has support at 100sma which is at 8255 & 50 sma is at 12302 . Unless 11400-11500 area is not crossed by the room for down fall remains. As has been indicated may times in all old BSE Sensex posts, that bull market or bull trend in BSE Sensex cannot said to be over for longterm till monthly uptrend line2 drawn from low from year 1981 gets broken. And so far it does not appear to have broken. So long term BSE Sensex is still bullish.

Momentum Indicator /Oscillator
In the monthly BSE Sensex chart the Momentum Indicators or Oscillators KST is in very over sold zone.Oscillators are not given any indication of by forming any patterns or divergence. But possibilty of bullish crossing KST Indicator is suspected, but again which will be clear in coming month.

(ss)

After the market touched its 200 day average for the first time, it has spent 13 trading days around it. These are spot Nifty charts and the chart below shows you the details - the market is locked between 33 and 35 and the best thing to do is to jump on the side of the breakout / breakdown. My take is that we'll continue to trade in this range until the election results are out. And then, I see a big down move. So we have about two weeks before that happens.

Nifty : cmp 3470 Buy at the break out of 3510-3540 range with XL at 3450 for higher tgt of 3670 and then 3750

Rel INFRA: cmp 695.00 Buy at the break out of 700-705 range with XL at 690 for higher tgt of 750 .take sell position at 750 with change to buy at the break of 760 for higher tgt of 800 and then 880

HERO HONDA: cmp 1182 sell around 1220-1230 range for lower tgt of 1070 and below or conversely buy at the break out of 1240 for the next higher tgt of 1430

IDBI: buy around 62-62.50 for the next higher tgt of 75 and then 85

RELIANCECAPITAL: cmp 524 buy in the range of 515-525 only for tgt of around 600 and 650 and then 780

TATA STEEL: cmp 238 buy in the range of 230-236 with XL 228 for tgt of around 270 and 300 and then 350

RELIANCE: cmp 1806 buy in the breakout range of 1820 only for tgt of around 1950-2000

RCOMM: cmp 214 Buy with XL at 205 for higher tgt of 240-260

Stock with wave discussion for the week:

RCOMM: the stock made a high of 845 on 10/01/2008 and was in continuous downtrend waves 1-5 since then. It has completed its downtrend as its last downwave5th ending at 131 on 12.03.2009. From there it is charting its new uptrend. The labelling of waves as on today is as follows which is liable to change with passage of time:

Wave1 131 - 188 = 57 pts

Wave2 188 - 165 = 23 pts

Wave3i 165 - 240 =75 pts

Wave3ii 240 - touched 205 as abc( max downside 190-200 range)

Wave 3iii to 3v will have tgt1 255-260 tgt2 310-315 tgt3 370

Wave 4 pending

Wave5 pending

Invalidation point as on today is 180