Sensex Technical View :
The view remains the same as yesterday as nothing conclusive came out today. Volatility remains to be high with huge movements in the day. Apart from the volatility is the quickness of the intra moves where in 100-200 points move is done away with in minutes.
The strategy to keep volumes low or avoid trading should have been helping the traders.
-- > Gap support at 11635-11430 was not broken yesterday with a low of 11621 /11625 in the last two sessions. Similarly now we have highs of 12256/12272 clearly defining the bands.
-- > Since the bottom at 8k the momentum trendline has been supporting all dips. We have noticed around 4-5 instances where it has kissed the line and bounced back sharply.
-- > The bounce back has generally crossed the recent highs and made a move of the range size. 10715-11300/500 saw a move to 12272 which is almost 600-800 points range.
--- > Current range is around 11625-12272 which if broken points to another 600 points move in case 12300 is taken of. This level also coincides with 12900 which is the 38.2% fibo level. So upside could be 12900 + - 150 points.
-- > A move below 11600 and the trendline would have severe negative implications as then we may retrace back almost 50% of the entire upmove from 8k-12.3k.
-- > If we see the charts closely every such move has been followed by a gap-up above the previous highs. So in case that happens the gap levels would become the stoploss.
-- > We have seen almost 4-5 instances of support from the momentum line any more attempts to stick to the line may turn to be fatal and disastrous also so be extremely cautious if indices go below the line.
In simple terms 11600 and 12300 are support and resistance zones which if crossed convincingly would decide the next 500-800 point move but the technical setup also suggests it would yet again be difficult to trade it. The trend is still up so the probabilities of 12900 seem to be higher ( maybe market knows the result).
Option traders can look for some strategies like strangle,straddles.
Stocks to watchout for :
Many stocks are showing false breakouts which are not holding up through the day. This could be due to indecision among market participants or a distribution pattern. So its very confusing technically as no fresh signals on the index.
Time to trade only for high risk traders who are very quick.
GMR Infra and GNFC possible election impact stocks look set for some moves.
Possible breakout stocks though i am indecisive with the choppy index conditions.
Mundra Port , MTNL , Central Bank which can move up sharply
ADLABS
The stock tried to give a breakout today but could not stay above 252-255 levels. The stock is nearing towards lower support zones of 222-225 which if broken may lead to a sharp fall. Very volatile stock so take your own call.
Market Observations and Thoughts :
The TV channels seem to have lots of Exit Poll scenarios and jazzy graphics to put their view though all seem to have totally divergent conclusions.So rather then taking a guess on Election it would be better to watch IPL it seems!!
I am no where close to political analyst so would avoid any interpretations about the government formation. Technically 11600 and 12300 is what i am looking at. Although taking a call on which side is the next 500-800 point move is very difficult. The uptrend is intact but lot many divergences on indicator side ( they keep giving it always ).
The selling and buying ticks continue to be quick in the day with equally good volumes indicates that the indecision remains high. So the next move should be by a gap move for which the higher probability is on the up side as the trend is still not broken.
Although even if one is to take a call whether NDA , Congress is making the next government there is no way to gauge the impact on market and a gamut of stocks ( ADAG relies on SP ,PSUs like disinvestment and so on ) . SO its like a guess where in u make or u break.
Are you taking a bet on it ???? Better find a bookie then take huge market positions :) unless u have a good risk apetitie
Nifty :: Constantly facing resistance at target zone and near upward channel top.. As we say in our yesterday post be cautious at higher level.. Too much selling pressure seen at higher level in today’s trade.. May be before election result we see have volatility in between flag pattern to top (Best strategy is to avoid market for time being) .. Avoid selling at lower level.. Our strategy for 14th May sell at high (S.L 3717) buy on deep (S.L 3534) .. Resistance for up move at 3686/3708/3717/3732/3760.. Supports at 3580/3534/ 3526/3485/3458/3417..
The Indian market opened on flat note but saw roller caster ride on nifty and close in redzone. For coming session if nifty trade above 3720 levels we can see breakout and test 3793zones and trading below 3610 level we can selling pressure it can test 3550-3510 zones .Trader can go slow or wait and watch for two days
The markets witnessed un-precedent up move beyond expectations. The markets sensed the possible hassle free govt. formation at the centre and the foreign investments are now unabated. The stocks have become dirt cheap for them and the growth story is intact despite the poor IIP numbers contracted by 2.3% but the silver lining is that the power generation up by 6.3% and mining up by 0.4%. They are not deterred by the short-term month on month contracted numbers but focusing on overall long-term opportunity stored in as POTENTIAL.
The Asian markets are flat with negative bias. The US closed slightly in green but the NASDAQ was down by 1%. The Tata Steel plans to restructure the loan by prepayment; plans to raise 3000 crore through NCDs and plans for efficient use of Corus capacities in these turbulent times, layoffs could cross 10,000. The independent auditors will look into the books of telecos.
The RIL will repay nearly 15000 crores surplus cash flow due to the merger of RPL can save huge amount on interest. DLF wants to sell 10%, plans o raise 3850 crores through QIP route.
The Nifty is in Bull grip with yesterday move so long it trades above 3573-71 level. The immediate support for today’s trade is at 3640 level but the up side resistance is also close at 3720 level again at 3736-41 level. So a more consolidation moves on the cards.
The RIL is strong above 1894 but the resistance at 1963 and at 1981. The bull move has the potential to take it to 2040 to 2057 level.
The Rel infra has resistance at 803-06 level and become weak below 77169 level. The ICICI has resistance at 559-61 level and the second one at 576 level and the support exists at 542-44 level. The Relcap may test 583-86 level but become weak below 548 level.
The Asian markets are flat with negative bias. The US closed slightly in green but the NASDAQ was down by 1%. The Tata Steel plans to restructure the loan by prepayment; plans to raise 3000 crore through NCDs and plans for efficient use of Corus capacities in these turbulent times, layoffs could cross 10,000. The independent auditors will look into the books of telecos.
The RIL will repay nearly 15000 crores surplus cash flow due to the merger of RPL can save huge amount on interest. DLF wants to sell 10%, plans o raise 3850 crores through QIP route.
The Nifty is in Bull grip with yesterday move so long it trades above 3573-71 level. The immediate support for today’s trade is at 3640 level but the up side resistance is also close at 3720 level again at 3736-41 level. So a more consolidation moves on the cards.
The RIL is strong above 1894 but the resistance at 1963 and at 1981. The bull move has the potential to take it to 2040 to 2057 level.
The Rel infra has resistance at 803-06 level and become weak below 77169 level. The ICICI has resistance at 559-61 level and the second one at 576 level and the support exists at 542-44 level. The Relcap may test 583-86 level but become weak below 548 level.
Use it learn & Learn to make money and convey the same to others.
Yesterday market open downside upto to 20 points and market will mild upside go it. Then after 10.45 am market will come downside upto 3613 levels. Then also this level come market will bounce back from lower levels. It will go uptrend upto 3720 levels. The Nifty Suddenly 2.50 pm down moreover 80 points and close 3630 level. The market is heavy volatile it. Today also market heavy volatile and 3620 to 3720 this two level inside market will trade. When the nifty will trade above 3720 level if trade 20 to 30 minute. The market will go upside upto 3740, 3760, 3790 and 3820 levels. If Break 3620 level market will down upto 3520 levels.
Nifty Spot
R-3652/3693/3752.
S-3593/3552/3493.
Nifty Fut
R-3655/3697/3765.
S-3587/3545/3477.
Sensex
R-12070/12206/12392.
S-11884/11748/11562.
Yesterday our buy call two target achived. Andalso our sell call First target achived.
Today Nifty Buy Abv 3655 Sl 3620 Tgt 3680,3690,3710,3730 and 3750 levels. Nifty Sell Below 3620 Sl 3655 Tgt 3600,3590,3570,3540 and 3520 level. The market is heavy volatile so use strict Sl.
Yesterday market open downside upto to 20 points and market will mild upside go it. Then after 10.45 am market will come downside upto 3613 levels. Then also this level come market will bounce back from lower levels. It will go uptrend upto 3720 levels. The Nifty Suddenly 2.50 pm down moreover 80 points and close 3630 level. The market is heavy volatile it. Today also market heavy volatile and 3620 to 3720 this two level inside market will trade. When the nifty will trade above 3720 level if trade 20 to 30 minute. The market will go upside upto 3740, 3760, 3790 and 3820 levels. If Break 3620 level market will down upto 3520 levels.
Nifty Spot
R-3652/3693/3752.
S-3593/3552/3493.
Nifty Fut
R-3655/3697/3765.
S-3587/3545/3477.
Sensex
R-12070/12206/12392.
S-11884/11748/11562.
Yesterday our buy call two target achived. Andalso our sell call First target achived.
Today Nifty Buy Abv 3655 Sl 3620 Tgt 3680,3690,3710,3730 and 3750 levels. Nifty Sell Below 3620 Sl 3655 Tgt 3600,3590,3570,3540 and 3520 level. The market is heavy volatile so use strict Sl.
- Today Closing VIX was 50.73, and 5 dma of Closing VIX was 54.77.
- PCR was 0.96, and 5 dma of PCR was 0.87.
- Open Interest of Nifty Futures current month series was 3,66,44,800 , change was -5.14%, and Nifty was down by -1.25%.
- FII were net buyers in the equity of about 493.80 crores.
- The swing high is 3717.05, and low is 3534.20, and important level is 3647.
- Nifty is likely to jump in a gap the range of 3717 - 3747, if ever.
- Change in OI of 3700 CE was +17.36
- Change in OI of 3600 PE was +15.14
SHORT SELL Axis Bank Stop Loss 684 Target 590
SHORT SELL Sterlite Industries India Stop Loss 483 Target 440
SHORT SELL Jaiprakash Associates Stop Loss 146 Target 126
SHORT SELL Suzlon Energy Stop Loss 82 Target 62
Asian Markets
Most Asian Markets are trading lower on Thursday following Wall Street cues.
Nikkei Stock Average 225 down 2.55 pct at 9,102.59.
Hang Seng Index down 3.14 pct at 16,524.80.
KOSPI Index down 1.71 pct at 1,390.36.
Straits Times Index down 2.01 pct at 2,141.37.
Shanghai Composite Index was down 1.22 pct to 2,631.25.
U.S. Markets
On Wall Street,Stocks plunged on Wednesday.Dow Jones industrial average down 184.22 points, down 2.18 percent, to 8,284.89.Standard & Poor's 500 index was down 24.43 points, down 2.69 percent, to 883.92.Nasdaq composite index fell 51.73 points,down 3.01 percent, to 1,664.19.
European Markets
FTSE 100 index ended down 2.13 percent down 94.17 points to 4,331.37,Germany's DAX closed down 2.61 percent down 126.50 points to 4,727.61,France's CAC 40 down 2.42 percent down 78.20 points to 3,152.90.
Commodities
Oil prices dropped on Wednesday as oil prices have been tracking equities markets closely in recent months.Crude Oil fell 83 cents, or 1.41 percent, to settle at $58.02 a barrel.Dollar rallied broadly Wednesday after an unexpected decline in April's U.S. retail sales.Dollar rebounded against the euro while slid against the yen to below 96.Gold for June delivery rose to $926 an ounce.
SHORT SELL Sterlite Industries India Stop Loss 483 Target 440
SHORT SELL Jaiprakash Associates Stop Loss 146 Target 126
SHORT SELL Suzlon Energy Stop Loss 82 Target 62
Asian Markets
Most Asian Markets are trading lower on Thursday following Wall Street cues.
Nikkei Stock Average 225 down 2.55 pct at 9,102.59.
Hang Seng Index down 3.14 pct at 16,524.80.
KOSPI Index down 1.71 pct at 1,390.36.
Straits Times Index down 2.01 pct at 2,141.37.
Shanghai Composite Index was down 1.22 pct to 2,631.25.
U.S. Markets
On Wall Street,Stocks plunged on Wednesday.Dow Jones industrial average down 184.22 points, down 2.18 percent, to 8,284.89.Standard & Poor's 500 index was down 24.43 points, down 2.69 percent, to 883.92.Nasdaq composite index fell 51.73 points,down 3.01 percent, to 1,664.19.
European Markets
FTSE 100 index ended down 2.13 percent down 94.17 points to 4,331.37,Germany's DAX closed down 2.61 percent down 126.50 points to 4,727.61,France's CAC 40 down 2.42 percent down 78.20 points to 3,152.90.
Commodities
Oil prices dropped on Wednesday as oil prices have been tracking equities markets closely in recent months.Crude Oil fell 83 cents, or 1.41 percent, to settle at $58.02 a barrel.Dollar rallied broadly Wednesday after an unexpected decline in April's U.S. retail sales.Dollar rebounded against the euro while slid against the yen to below 96.Gold for June delivery rose to $926 an ounce.
A channel break is expected in line with weak & reversing down world mkts. The event(Election) is out of the way for Indian mkts.
"A" wave may have completed at 3717 or at today's 3710.
"B" wave commences on a break below 3610. "B" waves are difficult to trade. A range of 3300 - 3700 is expected during this period of 7 - 10 days. It can also drop towards 50DMA(presently 3125, may move up to 3200).
5 week low of 3297 is a major support to be defended by the bulls, below which 3150.
"B" waves can be complex. Option writers will benefit and the nimble traders.
Well, as expected nifty had nice uptrend in the morning half reaching target from 3640 to 3705. But however it could not sustain the major resistance level above 3710 and sold off during last hour giving us another SELL opportunity from 3675 to 3625. So overall today nifty gave us two nice intraday trade set ups. Keeping in mind that all major indices are in uptrend in bigger time frame (Monthly and Weekly), it is better to go long in dips or pullback. As long as Nifty ranges between 3550 and 3725, BUY at dips and SELL at highs. Tomorrow Nifty could open GAP down and then can goes higher later half of the session. If this scenario happens, watch the opening level and BUY above 3605( check higher highs and higher lows pattern in small time frame, may be 5/15 minutes chart) with stop loss below 3565 for target at 3665-3685.
"A" wave may have completed at 3717 or at today's 3710.
"B" wave commences on a break below 3610. "B" waves are difficult to trade. A range of 3300 - 3700 is expected during this period of 7 - 10 days. It can also drop towards 50DMA(presently 3125, may move up to 3200).
5 week low of 3297 is a major support to be defended by the bulls, below which 3150.
"B" waves can be complex. Option writers will benefit and the nimble traders.
Well, as expected nifty had nice uptrend in the morning half reaching target from 3640 to 3705. But however it could not sustain the major resistance level above 3710 and sold off during last hour giving us another SELL opportunity from 3675 to 3625. So overall today nifty gave us two nice intraday trade set ups. Keeping in mind that all major indices are in uptrend in bigger time frame (Monthly and Weekly), it is better to go long in dips or pullback. As long as Nifty ranges between 3550 and 3725, BUY at dips and SELL at highs. Tomorrow Nifty could open GAP down and then can goes higher later half of the session. If this scenario happens, watch the opening level and BUY above 3605( check higher highs and higher lows pattern in small time frame, may be 5/15 minutes chart) with stop loss below 3565 for target at 3665-3685.
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