NEWSLETTER

(NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View :

Yet another day in the range of 11900-12300 or Nifty 3600-3720. So for a short term perspective it becomes clear that a move beyond the range on either side would be a small trade. For short term longs 3600 on sustaining basis becomes the stoploss.

Stocks to watchout for :

Nagarjuna,Elec Steel Casting and Harrison continue to look good trail the stops closer to breakout levels.

Dr Reddy stays sideways, Cairn opens gap up with crude move and continues.

Dishman Pharma yet again seems to have bottomed out buy arnd 110-112 with a stop of 102 on closing basis with a medium term view tgt 125/140 possible.

Intra Day picks:

UCO Bank buy above 32 stop of 30.6 tgt 34-36.

Tata Motors above 279 stop of 272 tgt 295.

Trade if market holds above 3590-3610 Nifty .

Sell Bank of Baroda below 313 stop of 321 tgt 296 or lower.

Sell Grasim below 1745 stop of 1775 tgt 1690.

Trade if Nifty breaks 3590.

Speculative short term pick:

Aurion Pro Solutions - The stock is seeing huge volumes closer to the lows. Seems something is cooking. So a high risk high return pick.

Investment Pick:

BLUE Star ( cmp 180 )

Investors can look to accumulate the stock in a pyramid manner at 178/160/142 as levels to buy with a long term view. Looks interesting but do your own research before taking a position.

Here is the list of Beaten Down Stocks that could make 15-30% gains over a period 2-3 months.

All the stocks are selected based on the crieteria that either trading just below or above montly 5 EMA.

Date	8th May 2009
Stock Name	CMP
ABAN	426
Alok Textiles	14.2
CPCL	121.4
DCB	25.3
Gitanjali Gems	72.25
GT OFFSHORE	295.1
IVR PRIME	44.3
MCDOWELL	714
MOSERBAER	68.8
MTNL	72.7
NDTV	111
NETWORK 18	91
NUCLEUS	65.8
OMAXE	57.95
ORCHID CHEM	99.8
PARSVANATH	50.25
RANBAXY	179.55
REDINGTON	140
ROLTA	85.25
SATYAM	45.5
SKUMARS	26.7
UNIPHOS	124.35
UNITECH	53.9
VIJAYABANK	27.65
WELSPUN	108.05
WOCKART	89.5
WWIL	14.51

Make Approriate Stop Loss for your investment.!!!!

MY CHART
Nifty :: Try to hold channel breakout level 3600. Made an insider day with Engulfing bullish candle pattern.. As far as stay above 3608 nothing to worry for bulls… All daily indicators are in long bearish divergence.. Nifty already treading in our Elliot wave target and already achieved flag pattern target.. Be careful at higher level.. Exit all long position once Nifty breaks 3608. . For 8^th May watch one level 3665 above 3665 momentum seems up, below 3665 momentum down.. Our strategy for 8^th May up to 3751 sell at high (S.L 3751) Buy on deep (S.L 3608).. Resistance for up move at 3700/3717/ 3732/3751/3800.. Supports at 3625/3612/3608/3578/3523..

(Inder Bhatia)

The Indian market opened on strong note but saw very volatile on both sides and it was trading in range . For coming session we can see 2.30 action on upside if trading above 3705 it will kiss 3770 level on the lower side trading below 3630 it will touch 3537 zones.

Yesterday market Gapup open 20 to 30 points. andthen heavy volatile after 2.30 pm market will go upside upto 3690 levels. Today Nifty Fut will cross and trade above 3690 it will go upto 3720,3740 and 3760 levels. But it not trade that level market again come downside upto 3620 levels. This 3620 is very storng support for Nifty fut and Nifty Spot. Today Weekend for trading and also today inflation (yesterday not given it). Market alart any time market will come downside. The nifty fut today also heavy volatile continue it caution for traders.

Nifty Spot

R-3664/3710/3737.
S-3635/3589/3560.

Nifty Fut

R-3673/3710/3731.
S-3652/3615/3594.

Sensex

R-12081/12180/12244.
S-12017/11918/11854.

Yesterday our buy call Nifty Buy abv 3640 Sl 3600 Tgt 3660,3685,3700,3720 and 3730 levels . this call first two target acived. Today Nifty Buy Abv 3680 Sl 3635 tgt 3700,3720,3740 and 3760 levels. Nifty Sell Below 3640 Sl 3685 tgt 3620,3600,3580 and 3540 levels.

(*M J Akhtar*)

(Ilango)

Nifty by holding above 5DMA and staying within the channel poised to make new highs if US cues are positive.
Certain stocks like SAIL which has led the market moves earlier has made new highs today..!!

Santy

Today stock market activities were really good indicating more upward bias by getting intraday support at 3640 and closing high at 3686. So for today intraday LONG trade from 3645 to 3690 target met as described in yesterday’s post. If nifty breaks 3727 (which is more likely) then it could easily reach 4068(78.6% Fibonacci retracement). So for tomorrow wait for a pullback or breakout to go long. Watch the opening price level with respect to today’s close. If Nifty opens near today’s close( 3680) and pulls back to 3660 area, refer the price action and volume at this zone 3660/50 ( higher highs and higher lows for go long or lower highs and lower lows to go short ). If nifty gets support, then BUY near 3665 with stop loss at 3645 for target at 3700/10. In the event of down movement, it is better not to go SHORT, rather wait for good pullback for a new LONG position.

As already mentioned yesterday " Nifty has almost achieved the target of 3700-3750 & it has made a small bearish pattern which can bring down Nifty to 3550-3560 in next couple of sessions. Moreover, the huge opening gap of Monday between 3490-3590 will also put pressure against fresh buying unless this gap is covered. On the bullish side, any move above 3720 can give 60-70 points of Nifty. ". Nifty opened with a positive gap of 35-40 points since most of the global markets were trading in green. Nifty made a very volatile movement during the day with 4 up moves & 4 down moves ranging between 3632 & 3692 & finally closing at 3683, about 58 points above the previous close. In current scenario, Nifty is trading in a range of 100 points & breakout on either side can give a move of 75-100 points.

As far as, extreme short term charts are concerned, Nifty, which opened with a gap of more than 100 points is making a narrow range movement for last 4 trading sessions & any bad news which can result in to a gap down opening will form "Downward Island bar reversal" which may invite deep correction to this entire wave which started from 2532 to 2713. However, on the other side some steam is still left which can take Nifty to 3800 or so.

As for as bar reversal in Daily charts are concerned, stocks like Reliance, JSW Steel, Wipro, HCL Tech, H.Honda, Cipla, 3I Infotech, Polaris, Crompton, Tata Chem, ICSA, Everonn have given "Upward Bar Reversal" while Tulip, Tata Power, LIC Housing, Sun Pharma, Indian Hotel, Guj Sidhi Cement etc. have given "Downward Bar Reversal". Stocks like Bhushan Steel, Subero, ISMT, Uttam steel, Gammon, Sunflag, Tin Plate, Ess Dee, Godrej, Fut Capital, Crompton etc have shown spurt during the day with unusually high volumes.

Sector wise, most of the steel, metal, IT education, midcap IT, infrastructure, banking, pharma, sugar stocks were in limelight & most of them closed with modest to handsome gains during the day. On the other hand, select stocks like Union Bank, BPCL, HPCL, Infosys, M&M, ACC, TCS, Tata Power, Tata Comm. & Jai Corp.,etc. attracted profit booking & closed in negative zone. As far as, A/D data is concerned it was in favor of bulls in the ratio of 3:1 with 300 declines & 914 advances during the day.

In nutshell, Nifty continues to trade in target zone while making a gap up opening on Monday. In case of any bad news on political front can cause a GAP DOWN opening forming a perfect "Downward Island Bar Reversal" pattern to indicate termination of intermediate up wave which started on 9th March with Nifty around 2532. On the other hand, Nifty still has potential to touch 3800 if it moves above 3720 decisively. The best strategy should be to book profit in stocks which have risen very sharply in last 2-4 days & look for opportunities in stocks which have given fresh bullish breakout in hourly/daily charts.


* NIFTY/ SENSEX !
Nifty - Bearish Target of 3550-3560 Maintained - Book Gradual Profits on Every Rise
Be Scrip & Sector Specific - Both Bullish & Bearish Opportunities Available

* ALOK INDS. !
Medium term target of 30-31 maintained-Buy on declines with SL of Rs.11/-

* REL. INFRA !
Bullish but overbought-Corrective decline to 785 & 765 likely

* TATA MOTORS !
Bullish but overbought-Likely to test 255 in near term

* WELSPUN GUJ. !
Bullish pattern with resistance at 111-Breakout will target 130+ in near future

* APTECH TRAINING !
All indicators favor rise to 160+ in few weeks-Use declines for buying with SL

* HEXAWARE !
Mildly bullish in hourly charts-Likely to touch 41 in near future

* IVRCL INFRA !
Target of 225 maintained-Buy gradually on declines with SL

* INDIA INFOLINE !
Heading for 105+/Buy gradually on declines for short term

* UNITECH LTD. !
Short term resistance at 56-Bullish breakout may target 67-68 in near term

* ISPAT INDS. !
Heading for 19-Buy on declines with SL

* SUZLON ENERGY !
All indicators favor rise to 105-110/Use declines for buying with SL

* TATA STEEL !
Medium term target 350+ maintained-Use corrective declines for buying with SL

* GUJ NRE COKE !
Short term charts favor rise to 34+/Buy on declines with SL

* NAGARJUNA FERT. !
Target of 28-30 maintained-Buy on corrective declines with SL

* SAIL !
Hourly charts favor rise to 135-Use pullback for buying with SL

* BAJAJ HIND. !
Target of 120+ maintained-Buy gradually on declines with SL

* SESA GOA !
Medium term target of 155(given at 90) maintained-Use declines for fresh buying with SL

* MLL !
Heading for 60+ in few weeks-Investment buying advised on declines


* CAIRN INDIA !
Short term charts favor rise to 235-240/Buy on declines with SL

* HAVELLS !
Overbought in hourly charts-Decline to 222 & 212 likely

* SBI !
Medium term target 1550 maintained-Use every pullback to buy with SL

* CANARA BANK !
Bullish breakout in daily charts-Likely to cross 300 in few weeks

* ANDHRA BANK !
Hourly charts favor rise to 65+/Buy on declines with SL

The results of tests designed to measure the health of 19 of the biggest financial institutions in the US are due to be revealed this week.

We examine what the tests mean and their implications for banks.

Why are the "stress tests" being carried out?

The tests are like fitness tests you might take at the gym - they aim at measuring the health of financial institutions. The point of the tests - which are being carried out by the US Federal Reserve - is to find out which banks, if any, might require more cash reserves in the event of the economic outlook worsening. They are not supposed to be a measure of a bank's solvency.

What factors are being looked at?

The Federal Reserve's criteria for the tests set out its baseline forecasts for economic growth and "worst case" scenarios. Banks were expected to show they had enough cash reserves to cope with both the current forecasts and a "worst case" outcome.The Fed forecasts a fall in GDP of 2% this year and growth of 2.1% next year. However, banks had to show they could withstand a 3.3% drop in GDP in 2009 and growth of only 0.5% in 2010.

Other "worst case" conditions included preparing for an unemployment rate of 10.3% and a 22% drop in home prices during the next two years.Supervisors took into account factors such as the quality of a bank's assets, its projected earnings, risks of the institution's exposures, and the composition and quality of its capital. So, for example, they might ask how many of a bank's home loans would go bad if interest rates rose by 1%.

Critics, including the investor Warren Buffett, say the tests do not take into account the different business models used by lenders.Others say that, although the tests are based on a mathematical model, because there are so many assumptions made, the results are open to interpretation.

Who is being tested?

The tests were carried out at 19 of the largest financial institutions in the US - those with assets of over $100bn (£66bn). These institutions represent about two-thirds of all assets held by US banks. Regulators have said they will not allow any of the 19 firms to fail because it would be too dangerous for the financial system.

When will we get the results?

Banks that underwent the tests were informed of how well they did on 24 April. The results of the tests were originally due to be made public on Monday 4 May, but have been delayed until Thursday 7 May. Some of the banks have disputed the test findings, and it is believed the delay in publishing the results was caused by lobbying from banks that were told they would need to boost their capital positions.

Any banks who appealed against the findings will be briefed by the government on Tuesday on its final decisions.

What next?

Those banks found to be holding insufficient cash reserves will be told to raise more capital.

The Wall Street Journal has named Citigroup and Bank of America as two that will need to shore up their balance sheets. How much needs to be raised will depend upon the institution, although global banking shares have risen this week, suggesting that investors may believe the sums needed will be manageable.

Banks will be given six months to raise money from private investors. If they fail to do so, institutions will enter into a commitment to convert preferred shares held by the government or other lenders into common stock. That would prevent the need to go back to Congress for more bail-out money, but would dilute the value of common shares. Some analysts worry that in preparing for a "worst case" scenario, regulators may end up making banks raise capital that they will never need.

MCX Crude Daily Chart Till 06/05/2009

The Candle on 06/05/2009 MCX Crude is bullish candle, with close of 2778. It seems that crude may breakout of crucial resistance of 2752. MCX Crude has been sideways zone since last 3 months and 2752 is an 2 month old high, which MCX Crude needed to breakout of and make new high with good volumes. Fresh longs position can be added only on breaking of 2752 on the upside.

In the Daily chart MCX Crude made a double bottom at 1636 on 13/02/2009. From then on MCX Crude rallied breaking out of the descending triangle on 26/02/2009 with a big bullish candle.

Moving Averages For Daily Chart
From the MCX Crude gave a dream run by crossing all the moving average 13ema, 34ema, 50 sma &150 sma in quick succession. Next upward target for MCX Crude is crossing 200 sma, which is around 2850-2900. On crossing 200 sma and sustaining it can give an idea of long term scenario for MCX Crude.


Momentum indicator KST For Daily Chart
Currently KST Indicator hints at bullish crossover in overbought zone, though the bullish cross over is not yet clear in the Daily MCx Crude Chart. But as n when Bullish crossover happens it will favour the MCX Crude going up.
As long as KST Indicator is in the overbought zone. Short term MCX Crude is said to be in bullish mode.
The KST Indicator had been in the oversold zone all of year 2008, which was bearish for MCX Crude. At the end of February 2009 KST Indicator gave breakout on the upside to over bought zone, thus aiding the bulls to take the price of MCX Crude above 2100. As long as KST Indicator is in the overought zone and making high or peak with every high or peak in the price of MCX Crude, bulls or longs can have a merry time.


Volume For Daily Chart
The resistance of 2752 & breakout above horizontal trend line must be crossed on good volumes.

Retracement For Daily Chart
In MCX Crude Daily Chart the entire fall from the high of 6333 Dt.15/07/2008-to low of 1626 Dt.15/01/2009 a retracement indicated is
0.382-3429,
0.500-3984,
0.618-4540.

MCX Crude Weekly Chart Till 06/05/2009

The horizontal trendline 1 is crucial resistance for MCX Crude on a weekly basis which is around the price range of 2850. The moving average 13ema is a good support level on a weekly basis for MCX Crude.For further affirmation of bullish trend in MCX Crude,2900 must be cross decisively with good volumes.

Momentum indicator KST For Weekly Chart
The momentum Indicator KST has given bullish crossover in over sold zone. This cross over is indicative of rally in the MCX Crude.
Rising KST Indicator towards zero or median line indicate rising momentum in the rising price of MCX Crude.

As long as KST indicator does not break out of oversold zone into overbought zone, possibility of full fledged bull run or uptrend in MCX Crude will be a suspect.

MCX Crude Monthly Chart Till 06/05/2009
The MCX Crude Monthly Chart above shows a January 2009 with a doji candle, followed by a long bullish hammer in February 2009. March 2009 gave to Bullish belt hold line. April 2009 is again Big bullish Candle which will encourage bulls in the May 2009. May 2009 may become an eventful month for MCX Crude.

Momentum indicator KST For Monthly Chart

The KST Indicator is in the mega oversold zone in monthly MCX Crude Chart. KST Indicator has not given any indication of a bullish cross over or any kind of divergence. So long term MCX Crude is still said to bearish.