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Axit D ShahHello Friends,

Nifty EOD chart



Sensex EOD Chart




We are updating this Blog after many days sue to some busy schedule. Anyways markets are in this range of 2650-2950 since last 2 to 3 months & today again a day has come that markets are again testing the lower end of this range. But this time the scenario is different as it has broken the trendline which was giving support to the markets till now.

In last week 2 to 3 attempts were made by markets to break out this trendline resistances but unable to succeed. Also Nifty can not sustain MAGICAL LEVEL OF 2777 on upper side. Once we break this another & final support or final hope for Bulls is MAGICAL LEVEL of 2666. Today the same has been tested but some how managed to close above this level. Also the Nifty Future discount has widenend.

WE are in Crucial time cycle from 15 FEB 2009 to 15 MARCH 2009 as we updated this on this website last month too. We have hinted few scenairo's are possible in this time frame. The Scenarios were EITHER MARKETS WIL TEST OLD BOTTOM or IF THIS TIME IS PASSED & MARKETS HOLD THIS LEVELS THEN SHORT TERM BOTTOM IS MADE.

We still need to wait for next 2 to 3 trading sessions to watch out our support levels is broken or hold on. All support levels will be calculated on closing basis.

NIFTIEE Close 2675
Supports : 2666 / 2650 / 2610
Resistances : 2710 / 2725 / 2777

Market held till 2.30 pm above 2650 levels which was a fair indication of chances of late recovery above 2700. However, bears had a different idea altogether. It started with basket selling in banking nifty and thereafter RIL stock was hammered. In fact, ever since the announcement came in we had said that the upside is capped. It is not negative for RIL but every positive announcements and little volumes are used for raping such counters. This is what happened with RIL counter.

I heard on wire channel the broadcaster asking a specific question to one of RIL executives about the inventory losses as the reason for the merger. Well, this is not answered by the executive but the way question was asked it seems he wanted a confirmation about the story came in print media couple of months back that RIL had incurred huge inventory losses in oil.

This may not be true as the so-called losses if any were alleged in RIL and not RPL which is set to be merged in RIL. On the contrary, RIL had to shell out Rs 1500 crs approximately for acquiring Cheveron stake which at this time could be bit critical as far as liquidity is concerned.

From that perspective it could be argued that RIL is well ahead in timing the market which we all have seen from the IPO’s and mergers in the past. Is this merger indicating that the worst is getting over in next 2 to3 months because only bear markets give such an opportunity to any promoters to re structure their own co.

We were looking at the value of Sujana Towers today and surprised to see the book value and the current market price. Is that we just blame the FII for distorting the share prices to the tenth of the book value on the name of the exit…? Or is that the promoters too are playing with them…? In my opinion Govt of India should be squarely blamed for this kind of pathetic valuations and behind the scene operations. The corporate veil should be lifted in such cases and any one interested in acquiring the co should be allowed to make hostile offer.

See Orissa Sponge I was shouting from the 29^th floor of the Dalal Street that buy at 90 it has huge value and the open offer will come. It was when the Unitech promoter decided to sell their stake of 26% the original promoters realised the sense of making open offer and counter open offer the share price rose from Rs 85 to 342. There one thousand such companies whose controlling stakes are outside and if the take over guidelines made liberal all the promoters will come out with rescue operations and stock prices will recover.

This will bolster the NAV of the Govt of India directly as of date the largest investment in share market is of Govt of India through insurance companies which are Govt owned. I am not sure whether voice will go to New Delhi but for sure these will the boldest measure in the Indian capital market and will become a self regulatory mechanism to protect the interest of the Govt and minority shareholders.

If this happens then probably another miracle can happen which is transforming the savings into the capital markets because the mechanism will protect the downsides even in bad times.

Coming back to market, it seems Nifty will try to breach the much talked about 2500 levels in this week itself which will happen by breaking RIL, INFY, HLL, ITC and SBI which are heavy index shares.

Traders have to go through the strain whereas investors will have good time to make bargain hunting though the will to make adventure will be missing as usual.

(Inder Bhatia)

The Indian market opened on flat note and tumble down at last trading hour and close in red zone .For coming session nifty is heading near lower trend line support zone 2580-2560 levels.On the other side 2740 will act as resistances zone .

raman)

BUY State Bank of India Stop Loss 965 Target 1075

BUY Reliance Capital Stop Loss 313 Target 355

BUY Axis Bank Stop Loss 318 Target 351

BUY IFCI Stop Loss 16.50 Target 19

(Lee)

It is said that wave 3s are panicky, emotional moves where the majority of the selling happens and wave 5s on the other hand, are just slow descents/grinds down born out of apathy toward the markets. The analogy can be of "boiling a frog".

The fifth wave also brings about a wider acceptance of economic woes among the general public..Everyone knows things are bad...Everyone knows market is never going to recover again..Everyone knows we are in a recession OR worse a depression.
(compare this to sentiment when we were at 6350)

Above sounds familiar?

Yep where we are right now...The 5th wave of C...Which means the final decline before we get a very very significant rally upward. Maybe even a doubling from 2000-2200 odd levels wherever the market actually bottoms.

Within this 5th of C, we seem to be running in the 3 of 5 of C. See charts below and should make things more clear...

I expect this current selling wave might not breach 2500 so I will look to cover my shorts if I can...And try to again reshort higher for lower targets which cannot be determined accurately right NOW. If the market does not give me a good entry, I will not do anything but instead will plan how to trade the next big move up....Thats probably where the next BIG money will be made. Moving plan for now but I will fine tune it today and mention in the intraday updates.

Chart -


So thats my rough plan FWIW...Its a moving target and so I will adjust my trading accordingly...Always the last bit of declines will be tough to trade successfully.

My first target of 2550-2525 which I have been calling for long is very close. :)



(Ilango)

MY CHART

Nifty :: As per our weekly post major up or down swing in this week and it is.. Nifty correct sharply from higher level.. Still momentum down but enter in extremely oversold zone.. Watch support 2612/2563/2554 for buying and resistance 2719/2726 for selling.. Avoid sell near supports.. Our strategy if open gap down buy on deep (S.L 2554) sell at high (S.L 2726).. Resistance for up move at 2640/2660/2700/2719/2726.. Supports at 2612/2563/2554/2502..

(waval atul)

as i posted earlier ,,,those who have holding the long should hold or can buy here for tgt 2800--2840 spot.......read the graf carefully.

Manoj chopraReliance capital has broken the long time support line around the 319 but it would be prudent to initiate fresh short once it closes below the 309 since its the high of March 2000(year) and where major support exists, immediate target is 205 - 195.

S S Cheema

I just finished watching a movie on the idiot box – Saint. That is the best thing to do I believe in these times. There in that fantastically paced movie the Saint makes three wishes for miracles. I too have my three wishes for the miracles also. The first – please improve the markets, second please improve the markets and the third please improve the markets. Am I asking for too much? In the present situation – perhaps. The Auto sales, home sales, manufacturing data and ofcourse the topping – Financial sector is bringing out one bad news after the other in US. The FIIs have provisionally sold 741 Cr worth and the DIIs lapped up 523 Cr worth. I still believe that we will live another day to find the bottom but the rate at which US is going down is worse. Their rating agencies are scoring off one nation/one investment idea after another – where do they think they will put their money in? Any way we have our own problems and they have their own. let us deal with our problems and they with theirs. Frankly we are neither a communist state nor a fanatically economy driven capitalist state. We are still somewhere in between. The communism has proved to be a failure – the capitalism is proving to be a failure so. I feel this middle path gives us the best of both the worlds. I have on a number of occasions in the past said categorically – if we were totally in communist grip – we have already seen the taste of the Babu Raj, on the other hand pure capitalism without checks in place will sell your mother-in-law to you at a price point where keeping or throwing her away are both out of question. Ask those who have stuck deals in property at the peak price points a few months back.

Sorry to waste everyone time on this bull. It will never come to an end. There will always be something worse. The tumble down is just not stopping at the moment. After a red Asia the Europe too closed red – the only solace that it was that losses were mixed ranging from –3.14% FTSE, Dax down 0.52% and CAC down 1.04%. This is after most of the indices oscillating green off and on. US too started green – went red – green again and finally ended red but losses were somewhat modest. Dow down 0.55%, Nasdaq down 0.14% and S&P down 0.64%.

The Nifty showed a second black candle and if we have another black candle today then it completes the third black candle – the “Three Black Crows” The future is not good if it is so – so let us pray. The volumes were below average. ADX is strengthening the downside trend. MACD negative divergence is increasing. RSI shows weakness – it is bearish. Slow stochastic red line is below blue line and – no it is not oversold – so I do not see hope on that context.

The markets yesterday was around the Pivot line only but during the last hour the markets could not hold the pivot broke below with momentum actually breaking the S 1 also. Not good is the only thing that I can say.

The pivot levels for tomorrow are as under…

R3 2765 was 2869 yesterday
R2 2717
R1 2669
Pivot 2640 was 2699 yesterday
S1 2592
S2 2563
S3 2515 was 2529 yesterday
Projected High Range 2655 to 2693
Projected Low Range 2684 to 2644
Fib Projected High 2708
Fib Projected Low 2590

forecast

Market may open down. Market may up between 10.55 and 11.15. Market may steady or down side between 13.25 and 13.47. Market may close at down to previous closing.


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Opening Bell Call
Buy

Exit all long term Position Major support of Nifty 2660 was broke on 2nd March 2009

On 3rd March 2009 - The BSE Sensex closed at 8427 (Down 179 points) while the NSE Nifty closed at 2,620 ( down 52 points).

Opening Bell Call
Sell

DRREDDY - Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd.
GMRINFRA - GMR Infrastructure Limited
HEROHONDA - Hero Honda Motors Ltd.
RNRL - Reliance Natural Resources Limited
NAGARFERT - Nagarjuna Fertilizer & Chemicals Ltd.

Technical Analysis for 4th March 2009

BSE-SENSEX - Major Resistance - 8485, 8531, 8577, 8652, 8727, 8773, 8819, 8865
BSE-SENSEX - Major Support - 8410, 8335, 8289, 8243, 8168, 8093, 8018, 7943

NSE-NIFTY - Major Resistance - 2640, 2655, 2670, 2694, 2717, 2732, 2747, 2761
NSE-NIFTY - Major Support - 2617, 2593, 2578, 2563, 2540, 2516, 2492, 2468

(B.N.RAO -THE STOCKS DOCTOR)

The 12 year low of DOW in US and the free fall in Europe due to the financial sector fall out did not effected Nifty but forced mourning was inevitable to express and act in line with them. The markets took all pains to stay above 2700 despite of meltdown in US and other European markets for some time and till yester day the lower supports were protected at 2650 level.
The Nifty now has to trade above 2740 level to avoid the debacle. In my earlier posting clearly mentioned the momentum loss in heavy weight despite the Nifty moving up to cross the 2930 hurdle. The RIL, ONGC and NTPC managed the show.
The challenge now is to see the quick recovery from the lows. The Nifty has to move above 2680 level to absorb the selling pressure without violating the immediate support at 2550. The RIL suddenly crumbled in late hour of trade below 1220 to touch a low of 1175 is the cause of concern.
The Asian markets are in green especially the China and the recovery in US failed to hold till closing in US is not a good sign. The SGX Nifty suggests a flat opening, today the Nifty may face resistance at 2741-43 level may get support at 2584-79 level and next at 2550 level. The Reliance may face resistance at 1221-1218 level and will become weak below 1191 level may get support at 1146-51 level. The ONGC may face resistance at 663-66 level may get support at 642-39 level.
The severely beaten Rel Infra may face resistance at 451 level may get support at 426 level and next at 421 level, in case it fails to cross the 441 it may test 401-396 level in next two days.
The ICICI may face resistance at 311-08 level may get support at 281and level two support may emerge at 373. The Relcap may face resistance at 331-33 level.
In my earlier posting suggested that the Bharti may see steep fall if it trades below 639 support level touched 594.

Manas

At last we did break down :-)

positional shorts can be held with a SL of 2640 on closing basis, and tgt of 2500-2457 and below.

for intraday, nifty cud give an upmove if trades above 2623 levels, tgt will be 2648

below 2623 there will be weakness, and support is around 2565 levels.

breaking 2565 we may see free fall again, so keep trailing it.

(NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View :

The consistent view in the last few weeks has been to avoid buying in the index and trades are biased on short side ever since i posted the triangle video ( Check links on right side ).

Sensex has for the first time closed below the leve of 8500 since October and 2-3 sessions below this level would confirm the breakdown from triangle on line charts also.

On the long term the supports are placed at 7200-6800 zone if we break recent lows and 6150-6500 would be a worst case scenario in the next few months. This could be the last wave of selling ideally around the 13-14 mth based on time analysis. So its the time-wise pain more then the price-wise.

For detailed view check - Triangle video , Future is past entered through another gate and Time Analysis Chart links given on right side.

Stocks to watchout for :

BOI and BOB look weak on charts short on rise with a stop of 225 on both. Tgts could be 200-190

Cipla seems to be the only stock which looks positive in near term. Buy above 196 or on dip to 188 stop of 185 tgt 205-215.

Reliance Infra seems set for a breakdown and crack technically. Short on rise with a stop of 505 or below 430 for a tgt of 405-380.Also as shown yest RCAP and RCOM continue to look weak only.

ss

And finally we have a breakdown on all the indices. The Sensex (top) closes below its October 08 close.

The Nifty Spot (center) and Nifty Futures (bottom) have broken down below their lowest Jan close.

The VIX closed at 44.44 up 2.49%. Two stocks gained in the Nifty 50 - Ambuja (+3.56%) and Grasim (+2.98%) while 7 stocks dropped more than 3%, the top loser is Tata Power at -6.14%