The above levels are the biggest debate between all types of technical analysts be it Elliot, Classical, Wave or whatever.
Although I am mainly stock specific so prefer to go with the Classical patterns but do tend to have a look into various theories for index calculations.
Now let’s see the points of debate based on primary assumptions of technical analysis.
1) Bullish or Bearish in the long term.
2) Historical Comparisons.
3) Time Period.
4) Price Target.
5) Miscellaneous Observations
6) Observations and Conclusions.
1) Bullish or Bearish
There is hardly any technical analysis theory or analyst who would give a 6k Sensex and 2k Nifty target and consider the indices to be in a major bear trend and we may not go above 21k in the coming decade and continue to be in a range of 6k-21k as we did in 1990-2000.
Majority of the technical theories and analysts continue to maintain that Sensex is in a long term bull market and may knock new highs in the next decade or say 3-5 years.
2) Historical Comparisons.
Let’s start with bear markets in India.
Although there is no hard and fast rule about what could be termed a bear markets. I would consider any fall of 20-50 % from peak in absolute terms and spans for more then 5 months to 2-3 years.
I have still not understood why every analyst thinks it was only 2000 to 2003 was the only bear market but that could be because all have been tracking Nifty only which started in 1994.
Sensex corrected 40 % in 1986 -1988, 1991, 1992-1993. The important one would be 1986-1988 and 1992-1993 as they lasted for more then 8-13 months and can be used for the comparisons.
Although if one is looking at a structural bull market then the most important one to be considered would be the 1986-1988 bear phase. As this goes well with the multi-year breakout which happened in 2005.
Comparing current bear market phase to 1992-1993 and 2000-2003 Sensex has one concern that during the period of 1990-2003 Sensex continued to range between 2k-6k. And all through after a bull run market ended up touching the lower side range of 2k. So in such a comparison it would imply a testing of the breakout of 6k in 2005 for current index and then make a new range of 6k-21k which may last for another decade ??? !.So definitely there are questions on both sides whether to consider 1992-1993 , 2000-2003 or consider the 1986-1988 corrections.
Charts for reference:
Sensex 1986-1988 correction
Sensex 1992-1993 correction
Sensex 2000-2003 correction.
USA – Dow Jones
This is the oldest available index in the world and also the biggest economy so it makes sense to compare a highly mature market for any part of technical analysis.
Here again the structural bull runs were seen in 1930s and 1980s. So 1937-1942 and 1987 would be important ones to watch for comparison as these corrections led to the major bull rallies. I have been comparing the US economic scenario of 1980s to India of 2000s. And the pattern of multi-year breakout seems to be very similar on both cases. Have extensively included the same in our come look into the future presentation.
Also one more observation is that October is a Bear Killer month for Dow Jones. According to the Stock Traders Almanac (which is the authority on seasonal trends), October crashes took place during 1929 and 1987. October downturns also took place in 1978, 1979, 1989, and 1997. October, however, is also known as a "bear killer". Bear markets ended during October in 1946, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, and 2002. Charts 2, 3, and 4 show October bottoms in 1987, 1998, and 2002. October also saw big gains after bad Septembers in the five years from 1999-2003. We have to consider October month importantly as US backed recession is leading to financial crisis all over the world.
3) Time Period.
This is the most difficult part of analysis and nothing can be termed to be accurate. But Classical and Elliot wave analysis do prefer a correction span of 8/13/21/34 months.
Now for Sensex there are mainly two camps which believe either the correction span ends in October 8 months or February/March 09 or the other one being the correction span goes well into Oct 09 or Nov 2010.
If 11k/12.5k is supposed to be a bottom then end of 2009 could see the new rally commence. This theory lays mainly a comparison to 1987, 1992 bear phase.
If 9500 or lower has to come in Sensex then yes the focus may shift to a correction span of 21 /34 months and the new rally to commence in 2011. This theory lays mainly a comparison to the 2000-2003 bear phase.
Although it is very difficult to give a time analysis for markets and economies but this is an attempt which many of the theories may point out too.
I personally would prefer and give a very high probability to the 1st theory of 11k/12.5k and 2009 mid to end to be start of the next rally as this has been the standard view since last few months about an economic peak and market bottom close to Sept/Oct 2008 which I have been repeating since 18-16k levels few months back.
The major turning point for the theorists would be Jan-March 09 or roundabouts where a different viewpoint me emerge either in favor of 2009 mid to end or end of 2010 or start of 2011.
Chart put up some time back comparing current bear market-
4) Price Targets.
Yet again we get into two camps out here.
One which prefers 11900/3600 or a bottom very close to it as this would be a retracement of 50 % of the entire rally from 3k to 21k or 850 to 6350.
The other one prefers a correction to 9700/2950 or a bottom very close to it as this would be a retracement of 61 % of the entire rally from 3k to 21k or 850 to 6350.
Classically markets would tend to correct to 50/61 % levels before commencing for the new rally. Also for Sensex the multi-year flag pattern breakout and channel has a support line close to 9500 till then the long-term multi year run continues to remain in place but a comparison with Dow Jones suggests that markets may not touch the support line at 9500 but can marginally dip below the 50 % level of 11900 before gaining strength for the next bull run which should be bigger then the previous one in time and magnitude.
Now other calculations in Elliot wave counting says either in the short run we are in C3 sub wave or C5 sub wave of the final leg of C wave correction. The counts may different with different analyst and different index be it Sensex /Nifty. Also I am not that adept with Elliot but there are not many counts which people have made on the super cycle of 1979 to 2008 but majority of the counts done are for 2000 to 2008 so maybe there could be different counts or views in both cases. But as per my calculations even if C5 goes to 9700 or roundabouts there is the major super-cycle which may continue well towards newer, newer highs in this decade or next 3-5 years as Sensex has broken out of a 13 year consolidation period from 1992 to 2005. This 2nd phase of the Bull Run should last for much longer time and much bigger targets which may be in times from the lows made!
In either cases one would expect a minimum target of 1.618 times the downmove in coming months/years which may depend on the bottom.
1) Miscellanous Observations.
One of the most important consideration is Sensex has broken out of a 13 year channel which is very similar to the Dow Jones breakout in 1980s. And the 1987 crash bought the Dow Jones index by 41 % and 57 % retracement. But it did not touch the lower end of the channel. For Sensex the lower end of the channel comes to 9500-10k on log charts. So ideally Sensex can worst come down to 9500-10k but generally in a multi-year flag breakout doesn’t come down to test the flag but retraces from much above the line.
The charts have been attached for the same comparison.
Flag Charts -
Dow Jones Flag
Dow Jones targets
Sensex flag
Sensex targets
1) Observations and Conclusions
After a brief analysis of both camps there is one thing common which prevails is that even if there is a bigger leg coming towards 9700 we should see a 20 % bounce back from the lows near 11200/11500/11900 which will give good returns.
Also for the time period of the bear market the two camps consider it to be either 8-13 months or 21/34 months. So the most crucial time would be around Feb/March or till May when analysts and market may come to a consensus. So starting 3-5 months of 2009 would be a clear decider for investors/traders to take a more comfortable call.
It still doesn’t seem there is a consensus on a 9700/11900 or 3600/2950 price target and the bear market phase time period. But one thing that remains for sure is that majority of theorists on both the camps tend to agree on the next bull run which may either start at 2009 mid or end or start of 2011 or end of 2010.
All in all the next 6 months from Sept to March could create excellent investment opportunities for long term investors with a time frame of 1-3 yrs as with lower index levels lot many stocks may come to highly undervalued levels. So ideal advice would be to go staggered at every dip below 13k.
The Indian market opened below 3900 mark and face selling pressure through out the session and close in deep red zone .For coming session if market opened above 3870 it can test 3921-3940 zone on the lower side 3759-3711 will act as support zone
Last week nifty lost 4.2% and close near major neckline support .As heavy weight had crack last week and made new low some like reliance ,tata-steel .Nifty is hovering near 3800 levels closing below it will test 3647-3547 levels .For coming session if nifty close above 3910 it can test 3973-4052 on lower side 3766 -3623 will act support zone
SELL NALCO BELOW 346.50 TGT 335>327 STOPLOSS 352
SELLSESAGOABELOW 107TGT101>97 STOPLOSS111.701. Reliance as suggested in previous week post is heading towards the level of Rs 1,733- 1,675 and the same is likely to occur in the medium term.
2. As a trader one has to watch Reliance breaking the level of Rs 1699 and one can short the stock as stock can be dragged to the level of Rs 1675-1600-1500-1450 as recommended in previous posts.
3. Reliance during its upward move journey is likey to
1. Tata steel is nearing its long term support level and thus one must watch crucial supports which exists at Rs 390-370-333. If the level of Rs 369 is breached than the stock is likely to touch the level of Rs 300.
2. As a strategy one can go for buying in this stock only if the level of Rs 501 is breached on the closing basis.
3. As a short going strategy one can short the said stock if the
1. State Bank of India is showing positive trend and as a result the stock is likely to target the levels of Rs 1550-1565-1600-1620 levels.
2. One can become totally optimistic regarding the strength in the rally for the stock when it crosses the level of Rs 1621 on closing basis. In case it breaks past the level fo Rs 1621 than the stock will head for the level of Rs 1,699- 1,849.
As far as the Nifty goes, I have attached the daily chart of Nifty on top. There is not too much to discuss on this too except for the last four days. As marked by the green rectangle, the prices have been moving within a small range between 3800-4000. Four days is too short a time on the daily charts to term it as a range bound movement, yet the rules/fundamentals of rectangles or trend channels do apply here. i.e. the top of the range at 4000 should provide resistance whereas 3800 should provide support. In case 3800 is broken, there is some minor support available at previous lows at 3777 and 3715 but a major support is not seen till 3635. While an intraday movement of below 3800 can be expected, a close below 3800 will be bearish. The ADX indicator, which measures the speed of a trend has also reached 24 after attaining a low of 11 which indicates that the speed of the downfall/downtrend is picking up. It pays to be cautius.SBI is another stock which carries good weightage in Nifty and if this performs well (and ONGC giving the push) then we can still stall the fall in Nifty without worrying about the performance of RIL.
How much ever I want to believe in the inverse H&S on the weekly chart below I won’t be convinced till it breaks above 1600 and closes above that. The shaded area on the chart resembles a small double top and break of 1300 might not augur well for SBI (1300 to 1600 has been the range for it for some time now).
The daily chart below(on the right) corroborates the above view, but what makes the SBI the favorite among traders is the RS chart (on the left) which shows that SBI has been pretty strong vis a vis the index!
"Mistakes are the usual bridge between inexperience and wisdom."
Phyllis Theroux
RIL has been really underperforming and Nifty can’t do much without it. The weekly chart below shows the price has broken the lower channel line and closed below it. Anything which can be called a support is now at 1625/1650 level. Once again here also we have a nice triple bullish divergence happening on the MACD histogram. The weekly trend should change if we start trading above 1985 and a breakout will be signaled on the break of 2135!
The daily chart also shows some kind of exhaustion, the prices are way below the moving averages, a pullback not ruled out (MACD histogram showing a positive divergence). The last volume bar is a cause of concern though; a buy can be initiated above 1800 with a stop of 1750 for a target of 1900/1950!
"Our greatest joy is not in ever falling, but in rising every time we fall."
Confucius
ICICI BANK has been a much battered stock off late and rumors were flying thick and fast that this might be our first casualty in India courtesy sub prime fiasco! Well I don’t know the inside story but lets see what the charts have to reveal to us.
The weekly chart below had a nice H&S top which broke down and price snapped back towards the neckline only to fail and head back lower once again. Now the status quo is that the price is way below the value zone so an attempt to go back to the MA’s is not ruled out. Adding to this short term bullish argument is the MACD histogram shown in the lower pane, it seems to be tracing a triple bullish divergence. In the last three weeks amid much muck floating around on ICICI BANK the bears haven’t really been able to push the MACD histogram below zero line. The weekly support looks good at 425/435, where as the overhead resistances lay at 550/600/650.
The daily chart below also had a nice H&S continuation pattern which has achieved its logical target. The price is inside the falling channel hinting a drift to the lower end, though right now the price is already hugging the lower channel line and far away from the MA’s, shorting won’t bring in much in way of profits.
My take on ICICI would be since both the weekly and Daily have red impulse bars this only warrants a short trade (and I am not keen on shorting it!), therefore I would wait for the daily bar to turn blue at least for me to take a small swing trade (shoot and scoot types) against the weekly RED bar. A buy above with 515 with a SL, a point below 500 is such one trade!
"If opportunity doesn't knock build a door."
The index, widely regarded as a barometer of the world economy, has fallen further since then, igniting fears that China’s
demand for 
com
modities may be cooling.The Street is worried. The shares of most shipping firms have plummeted 15 to 37 per cent, sharper than the 13 per cent fall in the Sensex in the same period. Varun Shipping has fallen 15.23 per cent, while GE Shipping has slumped 19.69 per cent and Shipping Corporation of India (SCI) 29.59 per cent. Essar Shipping has been the biggest loser, falling 37.46 per cent.
A senior shipping analyst with a leading brokerage house said China was sitting on a huge inventory of iron ore and was waiting for Brazil to complete the renegotiation of iron ore prices with the leading steel makers in Asia. “We expect a strong buying demand from China, which will again push the Baltic Dry Index northwards in the short term,” he said.
One reason cited for this standoff between Brazil and Asian steel makers is the higher iron ore prices being charged by Australia than Brazil. Since the freight rate is lower between Australia and China than that between Brazil and China, Australia is charging a higher price for its iron ore. This has prompted Brazil to renegotiate iron ore prices with leading steel makers in Asia, says a senior executive of a domestic shipping company.
So if you like shipping sector do see Baltic index before you jump in to buy these companies:)
BSE Sensex(12526.30) and Nifty(3818.30) closed 4.4% and 4.2% down last week.Inflation was at 11.99 v/s 12.14 last week.Crude oil was at 93$.Mareket had fallen sharply during the week on Lehman Brothers,Merrill lynch and AIG insurance’s crisis but failed to recover in spite of steps taken by U.S. government by banning short selling and giving a bail out package..Support for sensex is 12000 and for Nifty 3680.Resistance for Sensex is 13100 and Nifty is at 3980.Local fund buying was visible against selling of FII.Nifty put-call ratio was 0.67.Nifty 3800 put option added open interest.Hindustan Lever and Ranbaxy added open interest.
Strategy for Future Option players.
1)SBI(1483.65) Lot Size-132 Shares.
Buy one call option of October month strike price 1470@86.75 Rs.
Sell one call option of October month strike price 1560@50.00 Rs.
Premium Paid=86.75*132=11451.00 Rs.
Premium Received=50*132=6600.00 Rs.
Net Premium Paid=11451-6600=4851 Rs.
Maximum Profit=1560-1470=90*132=11880-4851=7029.00 Rs.
Maximum Loss=4851.00 Rs.
Break-even=1506.75 Rs.
2)IDBI(76.90) October month future-Lot Size 1200 shares.
Buy one lot of IDBI October month future@76.90
Sell one call option of Sail October month strike price80@2.95 Rs.
Premium Received=2.95*1200=3540.00 Rs.
Max Profit=80-76.90=3.1+2.95=6.05*1200=7260.00 Rs.
Max loss=Unlimited.
Trading Idea
1)DR REDDY(550.10)Buy this stock in decline and trade.
2)SATYAM (314.70)Buy this stock in decline and trade.
In bear markets, some pockets do offer opportunities to hide your money - FMCG and Health Care sectors can be good examples. Here we see the weekly charts of Hindustan Unilever (above) and Lupin (below). These two stocks are compared with Nifty as on January 1, 2008 and you can see that the relative strength for both is rising. Just a quick comparison - Nifty dropped 37.8 %, while HUL gained 17.4 % during Jan - Oct this year. Just another example of "buy strength". Cool, eh ?
ACC Futures is in a pull back mode on this weekly chart and will meet resistance around 650-680 zone.
I HAVE POSTED NIFTY WEEKLY CHARTS.Happy investing as this is the best and golden time for it.
Maytas Infra's well-diversified business operations, strong financials, ability to forge the right partnerships for complex projects and sound management band width may elevate it to the status of a key infrastructure player despite its current mid-sized position.
Investors with a perspective of at least three years can consider investing in this stock. At the current market price, the stock is likely to trade at 15 times its expected earnings for FY10. The valuation is at a marginal premium to similar sized peers. However, the company's well-established presence across high-margin verticals may justify such a premium. Given the present volatility in the market, investors can accumulate the stock on declines linked to the broad market.
Maytas Infra has emerged as a highly diversified mid-cap player in the infrastructure space. The company holds an enviable portfolio mix spanning segments such as roads, ports, airports, water and irrigation, power and civil structuring.
While Maytas has had a well-established presence in road and water segments, its timely moves into sectors such as ports, metro rail and airports (where the State and Central Government's spending activity has more recently gathered momentum) has helped it bag lucrative projects in this space. Maytas' size would have proved to be a limitation for bidding in these sectors, but for its ability to forge tie-ups and form consortiums.
The increasingly large ticket size of orders in the public-private partnership domain coupled with stiffer qualification norms and higher complexity of projects involved would warrant relatively smaller companies to go for tie-ups in order to qualify for bids.
Maytas has therefore adopted the joint venture/consortium route for projects where it lacks the technical expertise or financial strength. We view this as a positive as such partnerships would not only provide technical qualification to Maytas but more importantly diversify the risks involved in public private ventures in new sectors.
The company's order book of over Rs 5,600 crore as of March 2008 is about three times its FY08 revenues. More recently, the company bagged the Rs 12,000-crore Hyderabad Metro through a consortium; the `design, build, finance, operate and transfer' project has an initial concession period of 35 years. With a basket of construction projects and BOT projects, Maytas' portfolio lends itself to strong medium and long-term earnings visibility.
Maytas has further strengthened its balance sheet post its IPO in 2007. The company has demonstrated efficiency in utilising capital with a return on equity (20 per cent) that is superior to most other infrastructure players in the industry. Operating profit margins, hovering in the 12-15 per cent range, although superior, may take a hit in the event of a continued spike in raw material costs.
Network expansions by telecom service providers and the move to share infrastructure could result in increased demand for batteries, which support telecom tower and exchange infrastructure.
Bulk of the growth in the industrial batteries division is expected from telecom and UPS battery segments.
Parvatha Vardhini C
The stock of Amara Raja Batteries (ARB) has shown resilience during market turbulences in the past. The stock managed to rally despite the steep correction in January this year to reach its 52-week high of Rs 275 in February. However, a 16 per cent decline in net profits(despite a strong growth in sales) due to foreign exchange losses in the first quarter coupled with broader market volatility has seen the stock dip to new lows recently.
The current market price of Rs 101 is an attractive entry point for investors with a long-term perspective. At this price, the stock trades at a P/E of about 10 times its annualised per share earnings of FY-09 (annualised June quarter earnings). The company's growing market share, capacity expansions, successful entry into the two-wheeler batteries segment and plans to cater to demand for battery powered cars buttress our buy recommendation.
Telecom and UPS demand buoyantARB has about 26 per cent market share in the industrial batteries business. Bulk of the growth in this division is expected from the telecom and UPS battery segments.
Network expansions by telecom service providers and the move to share infrastructure could result in increased demand for batteries, which support telecom tower and exchange infrastructure. This year, the company will introduce Front-Access Terminal (FAT) back-up batteries for telecom players to be used at their base stations. Compared to the 2-volt cells currently used, FAT batteries (used the world over), carry the advantage of convenience and cost-efficiency.
UPS battery sales are likely to be propelled by growth in the IT and ITES industry, which requires back-up power, as well as demand from households and offices due to the continued power shortage situation.
To cater to the demand, ARB is expanding the capacity of both large VRLA (valve regulated lead-acid) batteries and smaller batteries used in telecom and UPS applications respectively. A further investment of Rs 52 crore is to be made this year.
Two-wheeler batteriesIn May, the company launched the 'Amaron Pro Bike Rider' battery for two-wheelers, with technology from its US- based collaborator, Johnson Controls. With this launch, ARB expects to cash in on the shift in demand to higher-end, premium bikes and other two-wheelers based on 'self-start' mechanism for which battery technology would be crucial. While the company has a combined capacity of one million units for manufacturing two-wheeler and small VRLA batteries for UPS, it expects to scale it up to 3.2 million units by 2010.
This plant is also designed to produce batteries that power electric motor cycles for which considerable demand is expected in the coming years.
Batteries for hybridsGiven the increasing thrust on alternatives to petrol and diesel, ARB is also foreseeing a demand for hybrids in India, which in turn need batteries. Partner Johnson Controls, through a joint venture with the French battery producer, Saft, has the technology for lithium ion batteries. Both companies are working on developing next-generation batteries that are lighter and reduce petrol consumption. ARB expects to have access to this technology based on which it will develop a product for the Indian OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers). Although this venture is still a few years away, it could prove to be lucrative in the long-term.
FinancialsFor the quarter ended June 2009, sales grew by 46 per cent to Rs 314 crore year on year. An exchange loss of Rs 9 crore on foreign currency loans, however, dragged the net profits down by 16 per cent to about Rs 15 crore.
ConcernsLead accounts for 70 per cent of the raw material used by ARB. Rising lead prices during a major part of FY 2008 had taken a toll on the margins. Lead prices appear to have stabilised currently but declining inventories and lower exports from China may again keep prices on the higher side. Like Exide, the market leader, ARB has been able to pass on the increase to its customers periodically. But Exide may score over ARB in shielding itself from volatilities in lead prices as it has acquired two smelting companies from where it would partly source lead over the next three years to save on raw material costs
Hisotrical Weekly Charts
The Chart shown above is a historical chart between 2002-2005 and there is a
clear info from the 200 day weekly EMA(red line) that one can identify the
bull market if we are manage to close above 200 day weekly EMA
Look at where the stock is on Friday:
A drop to 145 is now halfway, in a month and a half. No more insider selling noted after that post, but someone's been pulling the plug. No F&O - so no shorting - so it's investors pulling out.
The chart 1 is a daily chart and looking at the MACD , one can see that during the falls in january the MACD went to -220 NS @ 4448 , in july -204 NS at 3790, and now at -114 NS at app.3800 level . The MACD is improving gaining strenght with the passage of time despite NS going lower, that shows a POSITIVE DIVERGENCE..as of today..also pls. note that the red line in macd( above zero line) is a strong resistance point from where it keeps falling.. this is showing signs of bottoming out some time in the near future.For the past three months
we tested 4200 for four times
we tested 4000 for thrice
we tested 3800 for four times......
No problem where the nifty go... If the test is gonna failure then you are going to benifit
Simply i just want to trade the volatility this time.
The current volatility as indicated by the Average True Range (ATR) of Nifty, looks like peanuts compared to the levels we saw in Jan and Feb this year. Currently, the 20 day ATR (below) is at 156 and the Jan - Feb peak was at 285. Compare this with the 10 day ATR (above). Imagine what's gonna happen if we reach the previous peak - a doubling of volatility from these levels is sure gonna drive people very very crazy. Jesus!
The dance of death gathers momentum as Reliance Futures (above) closes way below its July low and makes a series of classic lower lows and lower highs (blue spots) on this weekly chart. Now, it is only a feeble hope that 3750 holds on Nifty Futures (below) as a break of this level will open the gates below. This week I was hoping to get a pullback to 4100 but all we could manage was 4016. Personally I feel that the support 3750 will not hold and we are going to see much lower levels. There is going to be a complete shake out.
while i have given various lvls on the downside for nifty arrived at by various techniques it is only for academic purposes.
predicting the exact targets or picking the mkt bottom or top is difficult, more so in a bear phase. hence for someone who is following the markets as a trader or as an investor, it is best to follow the prevailing trend(which is pointing down currently) and not worry too much about the actual targets.
trend channel study on nifty yearly gives a tgt of 3090. previous yearly lows may act as intermediate support lvls.
We retraced from 4500 to 5200+ (15.5%)
We retraced from 3790 to 4600+ (21.3%)
Now if we make an intermediate low of around 3600, then it's very likely that we will retrace in the region of 4200 (14%)
Therefore I recommend the Nifty strangle:
Nifty PE 3700 (Rs. 73.6) + Nifty CE 4200 (Rs. 70)
About the companyThe Company is an infrastructure holding company formed to fund the capital requirements of the GMR Group's initiatives in the infrastructure sector. GIL is engaged in development of various infrastructure projects in Power, Road and Airport Business through several special purpose vehicles.The company has got the orders of building world class airports at several metropolitan cities of India.The company is performing well in the infrastructure sector.
About the Financials
Gmr infra have a market cap of about 16176.55 crore. The sale has been increased from 33.39 crores to 102.77 crore for the year ending march 2008.The P.A.T has paradoxically shown a remarkable growth from 2.88 crores to 62.70 crores.
The other essential financial ratios has been good like OPM stood at 79.40% , while Return on asset has been recorded as 4.73% while the return on capital employed has been 1.03%. The net profit margin has been 60.21% being showing a gradual growth.
Regarding stock
About 73.28% of the total equity remain in the hands of the promoters.The stock has touched a 52 week high of 268.70 on 06/12/07 while it recorded a 52 week low of 76.50 recently on 01/07/2008 currently trading at Rs 83.The stock has been butchered in the strong fall in the market from Jan 2008. Though the stock has been deteriorated and the fundamentals remains strong the present valuations become attractive for fresh investment.
(6TH OCT TO 11TH COT 2008)
Hello friends hope all are fine and ur week would be vary surprising with market as market behave against mostly against the usa and other Asian market-that’s happen and u should prepare ur self for that.
For this week we are having three positive news if market consider that-
Indo –us nuke deal
Lower inflation
Bailout package
First two are most positive for Indian market while rest one is also important for global market and economy-though after announcing the package Dow get hammered Fridays but we expect little bit mild recovery in Dow and other market from hear.
Lest come to the points
DERAVATIVE ANALYSIS-derivatives analysis suggest that future and options call –put ratio is at 0.63 which is in the highly oversold zone-from many week it is in the oversold zone if market takes mild recovery then it will be vary health-one surprising thing which we come to know is that fii were selling the 3700 and 3650 puts on Friday so what does mean that? The simple means that fii don’t expect that market will slide to soon 3700 or even to 3650 so what does market wants is that mild recovery as they are not interested to buy call options they just wants to shorts at higher levels to earn more .so be cautious.
NIFTY FUTURE-last time given 3775 as a great support for the index and on Tuesday index recover exactly from 3775 and on the next day Dow get hammered by 777 points and index made open and low of 3772.90 and smartly recover 125 points in intra day itself -that’s why we always suggest that read our nifty fu levels vary carefully it will give u the real sense of the market when most fails to get the market trend .
For the coming days index has strong support at 3775 below that levels we have great support at 3700 and 3660-we expect market will recover between 3775-3700 levels.
While on the upper side it has lots of resistance at 3963-4084-4112.
On daily and weekly charts rsi is forming bullish divergence so that will also help in mild recovery from current levels.
This month index will remain in this range 3454 to 4245
This week index will remain in this range 3682 to 3928
If bulls keep the index above 3928 on closing basis then market will make u turn on upward and short covering will be seen.
SENSEX-last time support given of 12514 and two time index shrink below that level in intra day and close above that support level –that is positive.
Only support for the index comes of head and shoulder and triangle pattern target is 11875.
While resistance at 12878 and 13458.
ASTROLOGICAL AND TIME SERIES ANALYSIS-
This part is only for our paid member of our service we will send this message to them on their mobile.
GLOBAL MARKET –
Dow Jones-after bail out package falling wedge will help to bulls for some time now we expect mild recovery as of now in this recovery index can test 11191-11478 while on the down side support at 10000 and 9733.
FTSC-before 3 month we have written that index has broken head shoulder and triangle of 963 points and target given 4551 and it has already correct to 4671.
CURRENCY ANALYSIS
Remember we were writing that dollar would touch 43.44 under the headline of “the height of possibility” from 39
If dollar close above 47.65 for two consecutive week then it will fire to 49.14 we advise to short at this levels and our lower target is 43.25 –don’t shock by reading this levels u all will surprise when it comes.
Some target of reliance Group Company as per our technical theory projections –which is rarely used in India
SCRIP NAME TARGET PRICE
Reliance ind 1410
Reliance petro 73
Reliance natural 44
SCRIP SPECIFIC-
Assam co-having presences in tea, oil and gas, civil construction in which mr anil ambani and billionar investor george soros has invest –our inside sources suggest that we will have god news form the company and it will hit upper freeze those who are high risk trader can take delivery based position with target of 25
RESURGER MININGS-on the web and to all free member we have recommends on Tuesday on lower freeze and last day market plunge by 500 points and it make upper freeze big name of market is currently buying this counter it will hit two three upper freeze from hear.
AVON ORGANICS-co is making loss and one big investor name amit kamath has taken stake of 44 % through arch pharmalab ltd –this co do what lakshmi mittal does they buy closed or loss making co and make it to run so our insider sources suggest that in this counter we will have open offer or buy back in year –this could be multi bagger risk of 5 and reward of 15 rupees.
No comments:
Post a Comment