Sensex Technical View :
9700 has come finally ... But thats a fibonacci retracement and not a strict support . Fibonacci calculation suggests markets could correct to the extent of 61.8 % or nearabouts. The most strong technical support is placed around 8800/2600 for Sensex /Nifty.
On the short term we are seeing contraction of prices and maybe indices can start making a falling wedge pattern( will put up the chart in the weekend ) . But still such a pattern has been seen on hourly charts which suggest 9500 if holds the pattern remains but a breakout can happen only above 10500 which could give a small spike. We need to see some reversal patterns being made on daily charts which can develop in next couple of weeks when the index tries to stabilize between 8800-9700.
So continue to wait for some reversal signals and watch patiently ...
Stocks to watchout for :
Hindalco has come down to attractive levels technically ---
1998 low --- 40 levels
2001-2003 -- 48-51 levels
Currently quoting at 51-55 range.
Although i dont have any fundamental study on the stock but this is one of the blue chip cos which seems could stable out around these zones and can give a decent bounce back in medium term . Can buy in 3-4 parts starting 25 % now and be slow and keep a view of 3 mths to 2 years . Do your own research as this is a technical observation. Also TISCO could be good in the 185-150 zone similarly.
Stocks to watchout for :
All the short sell charts Bhel , Nalco , bharti airtel are nearing tgt zones. LIC has still not broken .
The other possible long trades have not crossed the levels so no initiation. Balrampur Chini and IFCI are nearing lower support levels to initiate small lots of buying but do your own research as there are many stocks which look cheap fundamentally ! .
Market Observations and Thoughts :
Price discovery by markets are always better then economy boosts and are not short-lived !!! and it doesnt seem far !!! ...
This is what i believe is needed for a good bottom formation in bear markets. There are lot many external interventions like crr , p-note selling considered to be good news which i felt could boost sentiments but have not boosted market levels and every news is being sold into. Purely with a technical view a bottom is well made by a price discovery mechanism of the markets itself. Also a good bottom indicator RSI is almost nearing a level which it was in 2001-2003 on monthly basis which suggests markets are getting into highly oversold zones. So its better to watch the markets for the signals then look towards any external interventions and reasons.
So ideally once there is a lull on external side followed by a price rise which is entirely due to markets could give more confidence then some economy boosters. Lets see how it pans out but just a brief and a quick thought.
9700 has come finally ... But thats a fibonacci retracement and not a strict support . Fibonacci calculation suggests markets could correct to the extent of 61.8 % or nearabouts. The most strong technical support is placed around 8800/2600 for Sensex /Nifty.
On the short term we are seeing contraction of prices and maybe indices can start making a falling wedge pattern( will put up the chart in the weekend ) . But still such a pattern has been seen on hourly charts which suggest 9500 if holds the pattern remains but a breakout can happen only above 10500 which could give a small spike. We need to see some reversal patterns being made on daily charts which can develop in next couple of weeks when the index tries to stabilize between 8800-9700.
So continue to wait for some reversal signals and watch patiently ...
Stocks to watchout for :
Hindalco has come down to attractive levels technically ---
1998 low --- 40 levels
2001-2003 -- 48-51 levels
Currently quoting at 51-55 range.
Although i dont have any fundamental study on the stock but this is one of the blue chip cos which seems could stable out around these zones and can give a decent bounce back in medium term . Can buy in 3-4 parts starting 25 % now and be slow and keep a view of 3 mths to 2 years . Do your own research as this is a technical observation. Also TISCO could be good in the 185-150 zone similarly.
Stocks to watchout for :
All the short sell charts Bhel , Nalco , bharti airtel are nearing tgt zones. LIC has still not broken .
The other possible long trades have not crossed the levels so no initiation. Balrampur Chini and IFCI are nearing lower support levels to initiate small lots of buying but do your own research as there are many stocks which look cheap fundamentally ! .
Market Observations and Thoughts :
Price discovery by markets are always better then economy boosts and are not short-lived !!! and it doesnt seem far !!! ...
This is what i believe is needed for a good bottom formation in bear markets. There are lot many external interventions like crr , p-note selling considered to be good news which i felt could boost sentiments but have not boosted market levels and every news is being sold into. Purely with a technical view a bottom is well made by a price discovery mechanism of the markets itself. Also a good bottom indicator RSI is almost nearing a level which it was in 2001-2003 on monthly basis which suggests markets are getting into highly oversold zones. So its better to watch the markets for the signals then look towards any external interventions and reasons.
So ideally once there is a lull on external side followed by a price rise which is entirely due to markets could give more confidence then some economy boosters. Lets see how it pans out but just a brief and a quick thought.
Comming back to nifty, 2780 levels looks an easy tgt, dont try to catch the bottom, and any longs should be only restricted to intraday only.
for any longs, we will have to watch in intraday only, so cant give any levels.
3012, 3078 are the resistence levels
(1) Gold Chart ::
GOLD; Last Sunday Post we are given path of corrective E leg in Gold chart at $ 786 And Today within 4 days Its achieved Low target of $ 698.30.. !!
Just see the ferocity of this crash : a. In one month we have lost 31 % on the Index - from around 4250 on Sept 22 we are now at 2934. b. Pullbacks aren't just working here as the slighest upmove throws us back down again to the lower Bollinger band - another proof of this is the difference between the Upper / lower bands; which now stands around a whooping 1470 points ! Jesus !
Nifty :: In early trade Nifty open too low and find strong support above 2900, gradually came up and turn green in mid section, In last hour once again selling pressure came at higher level and finally close in red due to global worry.. All Indices are in extremely oversold condition. And that’s why avoid short sell at lower level.. Still hold strong support 2890. Above 2890 or up to 2890 our strategies for 24th Oct. buy on deep sell at high. Below 2890 nest strong support at 2782/2678.. In one level above 2935 momentum seems up below 2935 down.. Resistance for up move at 2995/3046/3098/3196/3219/3280.. Supports at 2890/2854/2782/2695/
(1) Gold Chart ::
GOLD; Last Sunday Post we are given path of corrective E leg in Gold chart at $ 786 And Today within 4 days Its achieved Low target of $ 698.30.. !!
Just see the ferocity of this crash : a. In one month we have lost 31 % on the Index - from around 4250 on Sept 22 we are now at 2934. b. Pullbacks aren't just working here as the slighest upmove throws us back down again to the lower Bollinger band - another proof of this is the difference between the Upper / lower bands; which now stands around a whooping 1470 points ! Jesus !This is the first time ever since January that the difference is so high. What does all of this means ? Simple ! We are going to see much lower levels - pick your number 2600, 2400, whatever. Anything is possible. And to top it all, if short sales are banned then they sure are gonna screw up the whole market.
Lastly, the 5 day ATR is going down but still that's a helluva volatility for comfort as the 20 day ATR stands at 203.
The Indian market opened gap down on weak global cues and worsening credit crises .For coming session we can take support near 2878-2813 on the other side above 2981 it can test 3014-3056 levels
The Indian market opened gap down on weak global cues and worsening credit crises .For coming session we can take support near 2878-2813 on the other side above 2981 it can test 3014-3056 levelsOld hns big picture 1622-1562 broken supports
got retested now smaller picture hns breaks below 1368
Refer to old post:
http://fnocharts.blogspot.com/2008/06/just-charts-part-ii.html
Momentum will increase only below 1295
targets 1231-1165-1147-1100
panic low of july 1000 area ultimate target
P.S: Mind you I am bullish nifty 2950/2800/2600
These are humongous supports for nifty and we could get a 20-30% rally, I am bearish on sbi/tatapower.
Just be careful because a 'rising tide lifts all boats' to some extent anyway :)
got retested now smaller picture hns breaks below 1368
Refer to old post:
http://fnocharts.blogspot.com/2008/06/just-charts-part-ii.html
Momentum will increase only below 1295
targets 1231-1165-1147-1100
panic low of july 1000 area ultimate target
P.S: Mind you I am bullish nifty 2950/2800/2600
These are humongous supports for nifty and we could get a 20-30% rally, I am bearish on sbi/tatapower.
Just be careful because a 'rising tide lifts all boats' to some extent anyway :)
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Alert Criteria: Stocks (Any Indian Exchange); Price at least 5.00; Classic Patterns; Bearish; Daily Events; Pattern Duration at least 25 days. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
No comments:
Post a Comment