morning thoughts..
The markets turned tide on support levels but found resistance at higher levels.
Technically there looks some more upsides for the indices but some cooling and profit taking in the later half of the day is not ruled out.
Structurally the markets are still weak and intermittent bounces are a regular phenomenon.
However the markets could possible give a two sided move with bouts of volatility,
The supports for the nifty is at 3800 levels and resistance at 4050 levels
The supports for the sensex is at 12500 levels and resistance at 13400 levels
Stocks to watch
Bhel
Bharti airtel
Icici bank
As we move into the third quarter of the year, and herald in autumn in the northern hemisphere and spring in the southern, we have the opportunity to take advantage of strong cosmic energy to get things done.
October 14 brings a full Moon in Aries -- a time of heightened emotions. Count on feeling strongly about all that you want to do. Aries is courageous and pioneering, and you'll be able to move mountains if you use this bold energy in tandem with the passion of the full Moon to advance yourself and advocate for others. As usual, the full Moon is followed by a new Moon, on October 28, and the new Moon -- always a powerful time to start something new -- has more intensity than usual thanks to its Scorpio placement. Invest in something that you want to become important in your life, and you may see your plans come to fruition.
Mercury finally turns direct on October 15, signaling an end to disruptive communications and misunderstandings. Hopefully, you've used this introspective time well and can move forward with improved relationships and a better understanding of where you stand with others.
On October 18, lovely Venus enters freedom-oriented Sagittarius, as it does around this time each year. For those already in a committed relationship, this is a great time to get out together and go somewhere you've never been. Single? You have a great chance of meeting someone!
You can give it all you've got on October 22, when the Sun heads into passionate and emotionally driven Scorpio. This resourceful and determined sign gives you the power and stamina to improve any area of your life. Use the amazing strength of this transit to follow you passion -- whether it's to begin a new career, or find a spouse!
The month ends like it started -- with strong Martian energy! Mars sextiles Saturn on October 30 and trines Uranus on October 31, promising that you'll receive amazing support from likely -- and unlikely -- sources!
Vrushabha is lagna with Mars in 2nd in Mithuna, Sani and Ketu in 4th in Simha, Guru in own house in Dhanus, Rahu in Kumbha in 10th and Sun, Moon, Venus and Budha in 11th in Meena In these Sun, Moon and Sani are powerful in strengths while Budha and Guru are weak. The beneficial yogas in the charts are Nipuna, Gajakesari, Kedara, Guru Mangala. Kaahala, Parijata, Sarala, Vasumati and these in the absence of severe bad yogas should see though reasonably good year.
In the cabinet positions with Moon as King and Sun having lordships of Minister, Commander in Chief, Arghya and Megahadipatyas India will do very well in many matters including stability of Rupee, foreign exchange reserves, security and over all governing.
Lagna lord Venus in 11th in exaltation ensures over all prosperity and development. But its association with neecha Budha and 12th lord Mars being in Dhanasthana makes it that the benefits will not be reaching the targeted and the effectiveness will be lost with inflation raising in spite of development. With Sani in Sukha sthana and Kuja in Kutumba sthana general happiness also will be lacking and there may be drought conditions and consequent unhappiness and problems in many areas of the country. Sani being 9th and tenth lord, a prominent personality connected with ruling party may die due to cancerous conditions. Rahu in 10th will make the country vulnerable for hunakaraka ie the effect of foreign pressures possibly from Middle East and immediate neighbours. The developments in neighboring Pakistan will not be helpful or friendly towards India.
Guru in 8th while is good for longevity Mars aspect on Guru as 7th lord and 12th lord will make India loose a few prominent leaders both from ruling and opposition parties. Rahu in Karma sthana aspected by Sani is sure to increase political pressures and even political black mail from neighbours and Middle East. It may not be profitable to India to interfere with developments in Middle East which are likely to reach flash point. especially in Sep and Oct., 2008.
In the compressed year Budha period up to May 5, 2008 the stock market continues to play havoc with great weakness causing jitters for all - investors and controllers.
Ketu period from May 5 to 27 may see some epidemics rising, drought conditions and unhappiness on a large scale. Around May 20 there may be major accidents and even sabotage efforts in the Sani sub period of Ketu.
Venus period of 27 May to 29 July will be prosperous and there is very good chance of India having major international victories in disputes it is involved. The stock market especially IT sector will have its big gains.
Suns period from 29 July to 17 Aug will be happy and stable and victorious for the rulers. All internal bickering will be overcome and any differences in the alliance will be solved amicably.
Moon antar from 17 Aug to 17 sep 2008 will be prosperous with good results and peaceful conditions.
Mars period from 17 Sep to 9 Oct 2008 may see sudden jump in prices, scandals in finances, high expenditure and diseases. There will be internal problems and differences in the ruling alliance. Financial markets again may take a serious beating.
Rahu period from 9 Oct to Dec 5 is the worst period of the year with almost warlike conditions / blackmailing India by foreign powers. Ninth Oct to 4 Nov and 12 to 15 Nov are the real problematic periods of the year. The authorities have to exercise lots of patience and skill - this is neither a period to oppose and fight nor a period to succumb to pressure. It will be a tight rope walk - with Gulf being exposed to another warlike condition, diseases and disputes reaching the peak and India being put in a tight corner. There may be severe losses in many fronts including floods and resultant accidents and deaths of prominent leaders.
Guru dasa of Dec 5 2008 to 25 Jan 2009 will be good for many ways with finances and peace coming back to normal - still health of prominent persons will be a great worry.
Sani dasa from 25 Jan to 25 Mar 2009 will be again a problematic period affecting general public with accidents, lack of happiness, raise in prices and financial markets being hit again. Last week of Jan 2009 and First week of Mar 2009 will be the worse periods.
The markets turned tide on support levels but found resistance at higher levels.
Technically there looks some more upsides for the indices but some cooling and profit taking in the later half of the day is not ruled out.
Structurally the markets are still weak and intermittent bounces are a regular phenomenon.
However the markets could possible give a two sided move with bouts of volatility,
The supports for the nifty is at 3800 levels and resistance at 4050 levels
The supports for the sensex is at 12500 levels and resistance at 13400 levels
Stocks to watch
Bhel
Bharti airtel
Icici bank
As we move into the third quarter of the year, and herald in autumn in the northern hemisphere and spring in the southern, we have the opportunity to take advantage of strong cosmic energy to get things done.
October 14 brings a full Moon in Aries -- a time of heightened emotions. Count on feeling strongly about all that you want to do. Aries is courageous and pioneering, and you'll be able to move mountains if you use this bold energy in tandem with the passion of the full Moon to advance yourself and advocate for others. As usual, the full Moon is followed by a new Moon, on October 28, and the new Moon -- always a powerful time to start something new -- has more intensity than usual thanks to its Scorpio placement. Invest in something that you want to become important in your life, and you may see your plans come to fruition.
Mercury finally turns direct on October 15, signaling an end to disruptive communications and misunderstandings. Hopefully, you've used this introspective time well and can move forward with improved relationships and a better understanding of where you stand with others.
On October 18, lovely Venus enters freedom-oriented Sagittarius, as it does around this time each year. For those already in a committed relationship, this is a great time to get out together and go somewhere you've never been. Single? You have a great chance of meeting someone!
You can give it all you've got on October 22, when the Sun heads into passionate and emotionally driven Scorpio. This resourceful and determined sign gives you the power and stamina to improve any area of your life. Use the amazing strength of this transit to follow you passion -- whether it's to begin a new career, or find a spouse!
The month ends like it started -- with strong Martian energy! Mars sextiles Saturn on October 30 and trines Uranus on October 31, promising that you'll receive amazing support from likely -- and unlikely -- sources!
Vrushabha is lagna with Mars in 2nd in Mithuna, Sani and Ketu in 4th in Simha, Guru in own house in Dhanus, Rahu in Kumbha in 10th and Sun, Moon, Venus and Budha in 11th in Meena In these Sun, Moon and Sani are powerful in strengths while Budha and Guru are weak. The beneficial yogas in the charts are Nipuna, Gajakesari, Kedara, Guru Mangala. Kaahala, Parijata, Sarala, Vasumati and these in the absence of severe bad yogas should see though reasonably good year.
In the cabinet positions with Moon as King and Sun having lordships of Minister, Commander in Chief, Arghya and Megahadipatyas India will do very well in many matters including stability of Rupee, foreign exchange reserves, security and over all governing.
Lagna lord Venus in 11th in exaltation ensures over all prosperity and development. But its association with neecha Budha and 12th lord Mars being in Dhanasthana makes it that the benefits will not be reaching the targeted and the effectiveness will be lost with inflation raising in spite of development. With Sani in Sukha sthana and Kuja in Kutumba sthana general happiness also will be lacking and there may be drought conditions and consequent unhappiness and problems in many areas of the country. Sani being 9th and tenth lord, a prominent personality connected with ruling party may die due to cancerous conditions. Rahu in 10th will make the country vulnerable for hunakaraka ie the effect of foreign pressures possibly from Middle East and immediate neighbours. The developments in neighboring Pakistan will not be helpful or friendly towards India.
Guru in 8th while is good for longevity Mars aspect on Guru as 7th lord and 12th lord will make India loose a few prominent leaders both from ruling and opposition parties. Rahu in Karma sthana aspected by Sani is sure to increase political pressures and even political black mail from neighbours and Middle East. It may not be profitable to India to interfere with developments in Middle East which are likely to reach flash point. especially in Sep and Oct., 2008.
In the compressed year Budha period up to May 5, 2008 the stock market continues to play havoc with great weakness causing jitters for all - investors and controllers.
Ketu period from May 5 to 27 may see some epidemics rising, drought conditions and unhappiness on a large scale. Around May 20 there may be major accidents and even sabotage efforts in the Sani sub period of Ketu.
Venus period of 27 May to 29 July will be prosperous and there is very good chance of India having major international victories in disputes it is involved. The stock market especially IT sector will have its big gains.
Suns period from 29 July to 17 Aug will be happy and stable and victorious for the rulers. All internal bickering will be overcome and any differences in the alliance will be solved amicably.
Moon antar from 17 Aug to 17 sep 2008 will be prosperous with good results and peaceful conditions.
Mars period from 17 Sep to 9 Oct 2008 may see sudden jump in prices, scandals in finances, high expenditure and diseases. There will be internal problems and differences in the ruling alliance. Financial markets again may take a serious beating.
Rahu period from 9 Oct to Dec 5 is the worst period of the year with almost warlike conditions / blackmailing India by foreign powers. Ninth Oct to 4 Nov and 12 to 15 Nov are the real problematic periods of the year. The authorities have to exercise lots of patience and skill - this is neither a period to oppose and fight nor a period to succumb to pressure. It will be a tight rope walk - with Gulf being exposed to another warlike condition, diseases and disputes reaching the peak and India being put in a tight corner. There may be severe losses in many fronts including floods and resultant accidents and deaths of prominent leaders.
Guru dasa of Dec 5 2008 to 25 Jan 2009 will be good for many ways with finances and peace coming back to normal - still health of prominent persons will be a great worry.
Sani dasa from 25 Jan to 25 Mar 2009 will be again a problematic period affecting general public with accidents, lack of happiness, raise in prices and financial markets being hit again. Last week of Jan 2009 and First week of Mar 2009 will be the worse periods.
Just when I was sure in hell that the worst will be upon us - the markets rebounded with vigour. Where did they get their 'josh' from? I don't know neither do I care - all I know that this hope would have got many back from the bring of death. Was there something that was unknown? Afterall I saw the same channels that you do and there was fear - fear and fear all around us. Then what happened? If everyone was fearful then who bought into our rally? And is this rally for real? How long will it last? Are the bears done and over? Will the companies that are wholly dependant on US and Europe survive whatever is happening there? Infosys? Suzlon? anyone out there to answer my doubts?
Well the Asia was mixed with Nikkei down 4.12%, Hang Seng 0.76% in green. Europe started out red and ended unquestionably green. FTSe up 2.44%, Dax up 0.4% and Cac up 1.99%. US opened green and they recovered some of the all time high loses they had yesterday. The markets are up green. Dow up 2.6%, Nasdaq up 3.12% and S&P up 3.32%. They have still not reached mid session and there is a long day ahead of them. And on their day depends our times. Atleast they did till day before - and suddenly we were on our own showing our thumb to all.
As far as the candles are concerned - the pattern is "Harami" Harami means 'pregnant' and the long candle yesterday was the mother and the small white candle today its fetus or its baby. It is said that harami is usually not as much of a reversal pattern as hammer, hanging man or engulfing pattern but neverthless.... It is our hope. The bollinger bands are still expanding and the candles including today's candle is still hugging the lower band. The volumes were significantly higher. MACD has not started looking up yet. the divergence is the same as yesterday. Red line trails below the blue line. Mass Index is bad the reversal line is now in the critical band and we are about to get into a bearish reversal. RSI looked up but remains to be bearish. TRIX is still looking down. on Slow Stochastic there is another sign of hope as the red line has sharply moved - as if it wanted to go up and ride the blue line today itself. It is still trailing below the blue line.
I will take no second guesses. Markets will do what they intend to - so will wait for what happens to US tonight and where asia opens for guidance.
My question remains to all those who and make an attempt to answer. US is going down - whom all will they take along with them?
For those who are technically inclined: -
R3 4218
R2 4119
R1 4020
Pivot 3867
S1 3768
S2 3615
S3 3516
Projected high range 3944 to 4069
Projected low range 3863 to 3737
Fib projected high 4035
Fib projected low 3646
Well the Asia was mixed with Nikkei down 4.12%, Hang Seng 0.76% in green. Europe started out red and ended unquestionably green. FTSe up 2.44%, Dax up 0.4% and Cac up 1.99%. US opened green and they recovered some of the all time high loses they had yesterday. The markets are up green. Dow up 2.6%, Nasdaq up 3.12% and S&P up 3.32%. They have still not reached mid session and there is a long day ahead of them. And on their day depends our times. Atleast they did till day before - and suddenly we were on our own showing our thumb to all.
As far as the candles are concerned - the pattern is "Harami" Harami means 'pregnant' and the long candle yesterday was the mother and the small white candle today its fetus or its baby. It is said that harami is usually not as much of a reversal pattern as hammer, hanging man or engulfing pattern but neverthless.... It is our hope. The bollinger bands are still expanding and the candles including today's candle is still hugging the lower band. The volumes were significantly higher. MACD has not started looking up yet. the divergence is the same as yesterday. Red line trails below the blue line. Mass Index is bad the reversal line is now in the critical band and we are about to get into a bearish reversal. RSI looked up but remains to be bearish. TRIX is still looking down. on Slow Stochastic there is another sign of hope as the red line has sharply moved - as if it wanted to go up and ride the blue line today itself. It is still trailing below the blue line.
I will take no second guesses. Markets will do what they intend to - so will wait for what happens to US tonight and where asia opens for guidance.
My question remains to all those who and make an attempt to answer. US is going down - whom all will they take along with them?
For those who are technically inclined: -
R3 4218
R2 4119
R1 4020
Pivot 3867
S1 3768
S2 3615
S3 3516
Projected high range 3944 to 4069
Projected low range 3863 to 3737
Fib projected high 4035
Fib projected low 3646
Morning Update:- (This space will be updated in the morning based on world mkt cues):
1.Bailout plan :- Bail out process continues, next meet on Thursday.
2.Asian markets :- Up about 1.5% to 2.0% (at 7.15 A.M)
3.The rally likely to continue with bouts of selling and the likely range is(If gaps up) 3925/3950 to 4025/4060...Trade accordingly..
4.Tomorrow being a holiday, and the bailout meeting too scheduled tomorrow....overnight positions can be risky/rewarding..
***********************************************************************************
Nifty came off the lows as expected and gave away some of the gains during the last hour. There is no change in daily technical set up...in downtrend only..A close above 4050 is required for reversal and a close above 4125 is required for a break out.Hourly have turned up and the macd is travelling up in the negative area. Expect resistances around 3985 to 4010 area & at 4050. Fall below 3900(Increases as the day progresses), will lead to more weakness.
Above chart shows how Sensex divergence gave a buy signal at newer lows. Although there are more studies done before we initiate a buy but above chart would be a good reference for all techies.
Although i may not be a great fan of indicators and we use combinations of many technical observations but above analysis was part of technical methodology through which we were buyers at the lows !! to gain a quick 15-25 % bounce in specific stocks and 8-10 % index bounce , whereas the market-men went short.
Technically a bounce to 13500-14200 is possible but we would be looking to book partially on stock specific levels closer to upper range. A bounce from 12200-12500 to 13200-13500 is a 10 % index jump! if it comes.
On Monday when markets just broke below 12500 the usual market consensus was to go short while our view was to go long late in the evening when nifty was at 3830. We saw an intraday bounce to 3890 where large leverage positions were advised to be booked and carry rest. The technical reasons remained for the bounce but the US global cues did give a huge scare to the stoploss but the technical reasons to remain bought were still in place and markets not breaking 3750 gave confidence to add position. Markets and technicals may not always go with the general market consensus but markets are supreme and they continue to move as their supposed to although the participants may go wrong in their view. The bounce back was strong and Nifty reached our tgt of 3950 !. Would update more tonight if possible.
1.Bailout plan :- Bail out process continues, next meet on Thursday.
2.Asian markets :- Up about 1.5% to 2.0% (at 7.15 A.M)
3.The rally likely to continue with bouts of selling and the likely range is(If gaps up) 3925/3950 to 4025/4060...Trade accordingly..
4.Tomorrow being a holiday, and the bailout meeting too scheduled tomorrow....overnight positions can be risky/rewarding..
***********************************************************************************
Nifty came off the lows as expected and gave away some of the gains during the last hour. There is no change in daily technical set up...in downtrend only..A close above 4050 is required for reversal and a close above 4125 is required for a break out.Hourly have turned up and the macd is travelling up in the negative area. Expect resistances around 3985 to 4010 area & at 4050. Fall below 3900(Increases as the day progresses), will lead to more weakness.
Sensex Technical View :
A delayed post arnd 9 am in the morning, busy as festival time.
Above chart shows how Sensex divergence gave a buy signal at newer lows. Although there are more studies done before we initiate a buy but above chart would be a good reference for all techies.
Although i may not be a great fan of indicators and we use combinations of many technical observations but above analysis was part of technical methodology through which we were buyers at the lows !! to gain a quick 15-25 % bounce in specific stocks and 8-10 % index bounce , whereas the market-men went short.
Technically a bounce to 13500-14200 is possible but we would be looking to book partially on stock specific levels closer to upper range. A bounce from 12200-12500 to 13200-13500 is a 10 % index jump! if it comes.
On Monday when markets just broke below 12500 the usual market consensus was to go short while our view was to go long late in the evening when nifty was at 3830. We saw an intraday bounce to 3890 where large leverage positions were advised to be booked and carry rest. The technical reasons remained for the bounce but the US global cues did give a huge scare to the stoploss but the technical reasons to remain bought were still in place and markets not breaking 3750 gave confidence to add position. Markets and technicals may not always go with the general market consensus but markets are supreme and they continue to move as their supposed to although the participants may go wrong in their view. The bounce back was strong and Nifty reached our tgt of 3950 !. Would update more tonight if possible.
IF NIFTY SPOT DO NOT CROSS 4284 AND 4379 THEN.....
Ready for a big correction......up to 3621 & 3219.
Warning: --Our ultimate target is , so please also keep this target in your mind.
Please do not take this recovery as a bull run which came in the market. Market has been gone very badly. This game is only going to play for the daily traders. Selling pressure will continuously make on higher level in the market, so if any relief rally come then please come out from the market. This time much more fall remains to come in the market.
Today if Nifty Future go to cross the level of 3935 then it can go up to the level of 4030, 4120 to 4169 but if Nifty Future trade below the level of 3935 then it can go below the level of 3805, 3670 to 3445.
Happy & Safe Trading
Daily Target:-
1) Buy NF Above @ 3935 Target 4030-4120 to 4345.
2) Buy BOMDYING Above @ 373 Target 395-416 to 468.
3) Buy CMC Above @ 454 Target 472-500 to 559.
4) Buy GRASIM Above @ 1692 Target 1765-1836 to 2011.
5) Buy HDFC Above @ 2150 Target 2259-2368 to 2633.
6) Buy NTPC Above @ 172 Target 179-185 to 201.
7) Buy ONGC Above @ 1047 Target 1070-1101 to 1172.
8) Buy ROLTA Above @ 242 Target 254-270 to 305.
9) Buy RPL Above @ 144 Target 149-153 to 165.
10) Buy SIEMENS Above @ 406 Target 423-445 to 494.
11) Sell TATAMOTOR Below @ 343 Target 337-329 to 311.
12) Sell SCI Below @ 145 Target 141-137 to 126.
13) Sell RANBAXY Below @ 245 Target 238-229 to 209.
14) Sell M&M Below @ 499 Target 490-469 to 429.
15) Sell ITC Below @ 187 target 185-180 to 172.
Note--- If market open green then buy our buying tips and If market open red then sell our sell tips.
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main Target level nifty--- 4033, 3484 & 2604 sensex-- 13538, 11727 & 9071.( date -21-03-2008)
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