


Significant statistics:
1. Rupee is at 6-year low against dollar. Indian currency now touched June, 2002 levels while Sensex touched June, 2006 levels. Still there is so much negative sentiment towards both Sensex and rupee.
2. China’s foreign exchange reserves reached $1.91 trillion by September end. It has now World’s largest reserves. Why China is accumulating dollars? China will become new economic super power after this crisis and US will be at the mercy of China for loans. China needs US for its exports.
3. India GDP growth rate is at 7.4% in 2008 and at 7% in 2009 and it is still a healthy one from global perspective- Asian Development Bank (ADB).
4. Inflation will be at 6% by March, 2009- Planning Commission.
Most boring, careless and repeated statement:
1. “Indian economy will not be impacted by global financial crisis”- Indian Finance Minister P. Chidambaram.
2. Economy is still in boom phase and will continue to do so- Commerce Minister Kamal Nath. Is he taking Opium?
Strange news:
NHPC IPO: It will hit the market when BSE Sensex touches 14,000, according to Power ministry officials. NHPC was already postponed its IPO two times. When will BSE Sensex touch 14,000? Only NHPC people knew about it.
Significant dates:
1. United Phosphorus: October 31st is the record date for 1:1 bonus issue.
2. Areva T&D: October 29th is the record date for stock split.
3. AIA Engineering: October 18th is the record date for stock split.
4. RBI: October 24th is the date for mid-term policy review.
Positive news: I am finding it difficult to get more positive news.
1. IOL Netcom: Videocon promoters bought 14% stake in IOL Netcom from the open market. Shree Dhoot trading agencies bought 11.72% stake while Videocon Realty and Infrastructure bought 1.97% stake from open market. IOL Netcom provides IPTV and broadband solutions. This is good news after Larsen and Toubro bought stake Kalindee Rail Nirman.
2. NMDC is planning to hike its iron ore export price by up to 97%. It is really surprising news when all are thinking about price reduction. It is good news for the investors of iron ore mining companies like Sesa Goa. Is there still such a demand from Japan and Korea? I am still unable to believe this news which was published in the Financial Chronicle.
Bad news:
1. 2,500 RIL employees will go on strike from October 24 onwards.
2. OPEC is planning to cut oil production to keep crude oil prices above 470 per barrel.
3. DOT may not allow spectrum trading among Telecom Companies.
4. Uttar Pradesh Government raised minimum sugar cane price by 12%.
Recession news:
1. According to the Merrill Lynch survey, 68% of global mutual fund managers believe that economy is in recession.
2. 68% of Indian CEOs are restless due to economic meltdown- ASSOCHAM Survey.
3. India is now in Industrial recession- Government economic advisor M. Govind Rao.
4. Satyam will hire only 8,000-10,000 people against its earlier target of 14,000-15,000 people.
5. Russian economy went into deep economic crisis. Russian stock markets fell more than the markets of the other emerging countries.
6. United States and European Union unveiled plans to conduct series of meets to deal with global financial crisis.
7. South Korean government announced $100 billion guarantee for banks on its foreign borrowings.
8. If Bank of England will not cut interest rates, U.K will soon go into recession. Britain is going into the worst crisis than the 1990s crash.
9. Good article on the impact of financial crisis on Companies and businesses.
10. World Space Radio applied for bankruptcy protection.
Quarterly results: Negative news are gradually poring in the company results.
1. Reliance Industrial Infrastructure (RIIL): Squeezing of margins. RIILS declared 3% decline in net profit in September quarter results. Bottom lines are suffering as expected. Analysts are expecting disappointing results from Reliance Industries also. If it happens, there will be a severe fall in Sensex and Nifty due to RIL’s heavy weightage. RIIL and Elecon are out and some more to go.
2. Micro Inks: Company reported 44.5% increase in net profit despite rise in interest cost. Net sales rose by 29% in the September quarter. But Company needs to face heavy competition in the coming days but falling crude oil prices is a major advantage.
CMP: 121; P/E: 3.2; Book value: 310.
3. Chambal Fertilizers: Disappointing results. 20% decline in net profit despite good sales.
4. Ultra Tech Cement: Hopes on Cement sector revival will be delayed. Company reported 11% decline in net profit. We have to see how regional players like Shree Cement and Kesoram will perform. ACC and Gujarat Ambuja will also announce poor results in this quarter.
5. Banks: Allahabad Bank posted poor results with 82.6% decline in net profit while Indian Bank reported just 14% rise in net profit. State Bank of Patiala reported 192% increase in net profit and 37% rise in operating income. I am expecting very good results from State Bank of India. Bank of Rajasthan also announced bumper results.
6. Both Andhra Petro and Seshasayee Paper announced disappointing results. See the effect of interest on their net profit in balance sheets.
Request to ICICI Bank management:
Please send SMS like this “Dear investors, we have committed many mistakes in the last 3 years as we concentrated only on growth like American Investment banks. Unlike HDFC, we gave loans to many people who are not eligible for loans from other banks. We may be indirectly responsible for the upcoming Indian Credit crisis. We are now concentrating on savings accounts and fixed deposits. We will never repeat past mistakes. Sorry”. Read this article on ICICI Bank in Business Week.
Must read:
1. Telegraph: Indian economy is not shining so brightly now.
2. Guardian: What will happen after this economic meltdown? This article was written by Guardian columnist Julia Finch in the context of England economy but will apply to almost all countries.
3. Why a financial crisis of this magnitude occurred?
4. What are the past financial disasters and their outcomes?
5. Learn lessons: 10 biggest stock collapses in the U.K history.
Note: Many Indian Companies will be rerated negatively in the coming days. Use current results season to find good stocks. There should not be a single bad stock in anyone’s portfolio. Don’t think that falling stock price means it is a bad company. Even good companies fall in bear market. Stay away from sectors and Companies that will be impacted by global recession and decrease in global spending. Stay away from Companies which have high debt in their balance sheets. I am once again saying that there should not be a single bad stock in your portfolio.
If you are a long term investor, build a great portfolio gradually by tracking news, results and trends and give it 12-15 months time for great returns. This is not an ideal investment time for small investors who are new to stock markets. Small investors may find it difficult to bear this extreme pain and erosion in the value of portfolio. Current market is only suitable for patient investors who can able to accumulate in SIP manner on every fall.

Nifty :: Exactly close near strong support 3076.. May be more down side is there… Extended C of 5th still running. Now Nifty enter in strong support zone too many long term supports comes at down side. All indicators are in extremely oversold level. Avoid shorting at lower level.. Start buying small – small quantity again for short to mid term prospective at lower level.. Our strategy for 20th Oct. Buy on deep sell at high.. Watch strong support 3050/3000/2950/2900/2783/2676.. Resistance for up move at 3230/3290/ 3338/3436.. Strong support zone 3230 to 3320 works as strong resistance for up move..
15 min charts:- The Indian market broke the psychological level of 10000 and close in four figure. For coming session on 15 min chart is making falling wedge if we open flat and move upside above 3125 it can test upper level of channel breaking of 3053 it can test 2973 -2950 levels .
3d LMA- 3157, 3d HMA- 3396.3d SMA- 3227, 8d SMA- 3386, 34d SMA- 3982.
~BIAS – negative, MOMENTUM – negative, TREND – negative.
~STRATEGY-no new call generated. (Hold shorts with closing stop at 3396)
~stoploss for shorts at 3396.
~stoploss for longs stopped out.
I was getting to nervous with the markets and then a god sent opportunity came up … a weekend getaway to Goa with the kids! It was nice to soak in the sun and surf and tryin2keep my mind off the markets for a while. Now back refreshed albeit still confused about the whole issue regarding where’s the support? Normally these kinds of falls used to be termed as capitulation and were max for a day or two but this thing is turning into a slow and painful process. This reminds me of an example what Dr. Alexander Elder had mentioned in one of his books about how you can BOIL A FROG ALIVE!
Anyway moving on to the weekly chart below we can see Nifty has closed below the channel. The only support below is 2880 where as the first overhead resistance is at 3250. The MACD is still in triple bullish divergence and gets confirmed when Price closes above the previous week’s High (wishful thinking!)

The daily chart below is even more confusing with its Hammers and Tongs…. Tongs part is a bit of an exaggeration! And speaking of Hammers, the less said the better, off late they are providing false hope of reversal to the Bulls only to be hammered again by the Bears. The price is below the channel, we have two LL’s in place with a tennie weenie LH in between. Again I repeat we are trading too way down below the 20 period MA and a pullback to it so far has been very unsuccessful. Another LH will complete the pair for a new move down or if we close above the previous LH we can safely assume that trend for the short term has reversed ( I guess I am seeing mirages and illusions!) and I should be excused coz like I always say that Hope Lies Eternal In A Bulls Heart!

The intra day action summarized below in the hourly chart is a clearer picture of the LL’s and HL,s I have been talking about. This also shows how the price has been reacting to the falling 20 periods MA. We have a small divergence in MACD histogram, if we trade above 3100 for some time we can safely go long with a strict stop at 3050 to a target of 3225/3250 for starters.

"Action may not always bring happiness; but there is no happiness without action."
BSE Sensex(9975.35) and Nifty(3074.35) closed 5.2% and 6.3% down last week.Inflation was at 11.44 v/s 11.80 last week.Crude oil was at 71$.Mareket had fallen sharply during the week taking cue from global markets.Even CRR cut by Reserve Bank Of India was not able to prevent the free fall. Support for sensex is 9300 and for Nifty 2850.Resistance for Sensex is 10550 and Nifty is at 3250.Local fund buying will be visible against selling of FII.Nifty put-call ratio was 0.58.Nifty 3100 put option added open interest.SUZLON and IFCI added open interest while SAIL and NTPC sheded the open interest.
Strategy for Future Option players.
1)TATASTEEL(247.60) Lot Size-382 Shares.
Buy one call option of October month strike price 250@16.55 Rs.
Sell one call option of October month strike price 270@11.40 Rs.
Premium Paid=16.55*382=6322.10 Rs.
Premium Received=11.40*382=4354.80 Rs.
Net Premium Paid=6322.10-4354.80=1967.30 Rs.
Maximum Profit=270-250=20*382=7640.00-1967.30=5672.70 Rs.
Maximum Loss=1967.30 Rs.
Break-even=255.15 Rs.
2)RNRL(51.00) October month future-Lot Size 1788 shares.
Buy one lot of RNRL October month future@51.00
Sell one call option of Sail October month strike price55@3.10 Rs.
Premium Received=3.10*1788=5542.80 Rs.
Max Profit=55.00-51.00=4.00+3.10=7.10*1788==12694.80 Rs.
Max loss=Unlimited.
Trading Idea
1)ITC(158.90)Buy this stock in decline and trade.
2)SATYAM (265.80)Buy this stock in decline and trade.
What do all of the following items have in common?
a) A needle in a haystack
b) A diamond in the rough
c) A confident investor in the INDIAN stock market.
Answer: They’re all next to impossible to find.
This October month is by far worst month since 2003 where 1st wave started on monthly chart.
We have already lost 22% in NIFTY this month with still 7,8 trading days pending.
Stocks are falling like cards,No support looks solid enough to hold this avalanche.
The biggest stock RELIANCE which holds 12% weightage in Nifty fell 5-9% consistently for the last 2 weeks,Which ensured that any relief rally which came got fizzled out in few days.
A positive point here Bluechip falling signals bad days are numbered.
On chart RELIANCE looks like should give a corrective bounce within next 100-120 points fall.
Coming back to "NIFTY"
The monthly chart suggests we are in 4th wave
Since wave 2 was small in size and time expect 4th wave to be big in size(which it already is)
as well as time consuming,So thinking that we would be out of this soon would be futile.
This could be a nightmare for INVESTORS but delight for Traders.
INVESTORS would have to adapt to the present conditions,They cannot just buy and sleep.
once you get 20-50% take your profits or Trail them and wait for next opportunity.
New high looks elusive for next 1-2 years at least .
With this slowdown in place ,Companies would have to cut down on many expenditures.
And usually the scissor falls on marketing.
Due to which I feel online marketing + Advertising would be more viable.
Try to find companies which are directly or indirectly get influenced by this
Do let me know too :) write in comments.
Coming back to "NIFTY"
As we witnessed each rally got washed out in few days.
We end up making a new low every time a rally is fizzled.
In this process we are making lower highs and lower lows.
An ideal case for falling wedge.
So keep this in mind and lookout for such pattern.
As for the chart 2000 in NIFTY is the crude sl for this 4th wave as below that the whole assumption of our waves goes for a toss .
Before that 2550-2600 the 2006 june lows is a very good support level.
Even before that 3000-2800 band too looks promising . We will see in coming days how these levels react .
Short term trading is about momentum. In fact, even investing is a lot about long term momentum, but we will leave that issue for now.
If we assume that the Nifty is ready for a bounce (it is!), what are the resistance levels at which it can stop ?
All numbers discussed here are for Nifty October Futures. The first, most obvious resistance is at 3135 - 3155 zone. This is the zone that provided support on Wednesday, Oct 16. if this zone is taken out (meaning the Nifty continues higher), A-B-C targets for the Nifty are at 3208, 3306 and 3463.
The easiest way to catch this up move, is to use a trend indicator on an intra day chart. Keep the trend definition a bit wide to allow for the increased voaltility. For example, instead of using a 13 period average, use 34 period. If the futures approach any of the suggested resistance levels, switch over to the smaller period average to ensure tighter stops.
If our analysis is wrong, and, the Nifty continues to move down, then what ? Well, there is no support for the Nifty - a statement I have made many times. In case of a decline, traders should follow intra day charts to go with the downside trend. A change in trend will be a signal to exit.
Please remember that the Nifty cash index made 27 month lows on Friday October 18. This is NOT bullish. Yet, all markets will change their trend. If you are a short term trader, catch this change of trend with charts. If you wish to take positions, then the signals have not come in yet.
The SENSEX collapsed through some very strong support levels in the face of fundamentals which were dire in the extreme. It breezed through 12,500 and is now sitting close to the 61.8 pct Fibonacci retracement of its entire upmove since 2001/2002.
The short-term bearish technical indicators are still in place and the 2006 post sell-off low around 9,700 is acting as support as the chart shows. The 61.8 pct Fibonacci retracement level kicks in around the same area.
Short-term indicators like the Parabolic-SAR, MACD and Alpha-Beta trends are all still bearish. We need to watch both closely in the next few days in any case. It is from the MACD and Parabolic-SAR we will get our early signs of a bottoming out.
The current market declines are a symptom of the economic problems caused by the credit crunch rather than being purely market related. In as much, this is not like the 1987 stock market crash but more like the 1997 Asia crisis and the associated market declines. At the moment the markets may be overacting to the downside but they are struggling to discount economic developments a year or so down the line. Given the outlook is so hazy right now the markets are understandably volatile and incredibly jittery.
I covered the 1987 stock market crash when I was based in London and remember at the time that it seemed like the end of the world and things were never going to recover. The authorities reacted, as they have now, by throwing liquidity at the markets and frankly that is pretty much the only policy response that is effective in the near-term.

Gold Daily :: We plot here wave count in Gold daily chart. Corrective expanding triangle E leg under way in falling channel.. As per our CRB index posting all commodity are in oversold zone and may be we see bounce beck from here.. With all commodity stock may be we see small bounce beck also in Gold from here and again turn down in coming days to finish E leg of expending triangle

peta(pun not intended) chart analysis is something unique to my blog as described by many friends trading and analyzing mkts.
immediate support lvl by fibo seen near 12.62 p/e equivalent to 2950 on nifty. upperside if re-enters channel it will be likely to be resisted by the upper trend channel lines currently near 14 and 18 p/e respectively.
max projected downside if remains below trend channel is about 10 p/e or 2340 on nifty(its not necessary that it will get there).
As we wrote that, if big fall happen in the world market then this fall will come here also. Impact of Hang sang did show in our country. When fall start in the big share then bottom comes to near, after our warning, if you do not sell your shares on nifty 4500 then please now do not sell the shares near the bottom because 20% more fall can be possible from this level but don’t take any fear & keep continue your purchasing on good fundamental shares & don’t wait for the bottom out because no body can do the predication of bottom. If so many falls come then BSE should go at the level of 8100.
Warning: - If too much worst condition happen then BSE can go at the level of 5004 & Nifty 1500.
Monday if Nifty Future cross the level of 3122 then it can go up to the level of 3277 to 3472 but if Nifty Future trade below the level of 3122 then it can go below the level of 2963 to 2763.
Happy & Safe Trading
Daily Tips:-
1) Buy NF Above @ 3122 target 3158-3277 to 3472.
2) Buy GAIL Above @ 247 Target 269-294 to 353.
3) Buy PATNI Above @ 160 target 166-172 to 187.
4) Buy BOB Above @ 306 target 310-322 to 338.
5) Buy BPCL Above @ 354 Target 360-373 to 392.
6) Buy CORPBANK Above @ 229 Target 232-238 to 246.
7) Buy GRASIM Above @ 1288 Target 1320-1397 to 1503.
8) Buy RCOM Above @ 237 Target 243-258 to 281.
9) Sell ZEETELE Below @ 145 Target 140-132 to 114.
10) Sell STER Below @ 271 target 254234 to 188.
11) Sell RELCAPITAL Below @ 601 Target 540-473 to 317.
12) Sell ONGC Below @ 776 Target 748-716 to 644.
13) Sell MASTEK Below @ 216 target 210-201 to 183.
14) Sell ICICIBANK Below @ 189 target 369-345 to 291.
15) Sell HDFC Below @ 1779 Target 1732-1676 to 1551.






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