January low - 15332.
Absolute fall-- 27.7 %
may top - 17735
July low - 12514
Absolute fall :
29.4 %
Going by the previous falls markets will get highly oversold and bounceback should be very near.
So if we calculate 27.7% the level comes to 11270
if we take 30 % the level comes to 10900.
So ideally markets should give a bounce back from closer to these zones. If one cant buy then this is not the time to sell. Better to be patient and wait to get better days as companies continue to work and markets too.
so far no waves counts have been changed in my clear cut analysis.
C is running fast downward. today C-3-(3) is completed at 3331 with C-3-(3)-v being an extended wave. for today the nifty channel lvl on downside was 3307(see today's nifty and sensex channel post). it is to be noted that today's low 3331 was exact fibo lvl on my charts.
the C-3-(4) which started up from 3331 has a tgt of 3700 in coming days.
in my ew analysis nifty has to go further down, after C-3-(4) completes, C-3-(5) will open down, followed by C-4 up and C-5 down where the C wave structure will complete.
since further downwaves are still to go on, the probable tgts will be given later.
Indian stock market is down by 800 odd points in the last 2 days and is already at the 2006 levels.
SEBI has re-introduced the P-notes (participatory notes), which were banned in late 2007. These are instruments through which foreign investors can invest in Indian equity without registering themselves with SEBI. This move is supposed to bring in more foreign investments. Though these 2 announcements were made yesterday they did not help the market today. It was down by 100 odd points today.
FII's are net sellers overall and are expected to sell even more till the end of 2008. This has to be done to meet their credit obligation in the midst of once in a century financial crisis in the US. RBI has also injected 20000 crore rupees into the markets. This move comes after Australia has reduced interest rates and Bank of Japan has injected money into the markets. The re-introduction of P-notes is a bit too late and too little considering the global turmoil. Indian markets should expect more pain. This would be for Indian stock Market, growth of the economy and the inflation.
Though the measures employed by RBI and SEBI are on expected lines something else should be done at the same time. Something else, which is not in the hands of RBI. Something else, which has to be done by the government. That is leaving the price of the petrol products to the market. Do not subsidize it. Do not give oil bonds to the PSU's. Do not charge extra taxes for the imports.
If the price were left to the market wouldn't we all be cheering now that the barrel price has come down? If it goes up again (not likely) wouldn't everybody be using the public transportation instead of firing all 4 cylinders? I know its election year to make any unpopular reforms but does congress really think they are going to win the next elections? I don't. I don't see a reason for Congress to think otherwise. So why not make the most of it. Remove the oil subsidies.
Given these scenarios do you still think Sensex has reached the bottom? Some analysts say the worst for Indian Stock Market (Sensex) would be 9500. I have a hunch that it would bottom out at 9500. Not that I believe in those analysts. But because there is still a lot of pain left in the markets and 9500-10000 seems like a good level to enter the market. This is the year-end target.
watch for supports on channel lower tline.
Markets just melted away..the carnage continues..best is to sit back and let it unfold its frenzy. we are near supports so shorts can be covered and wait for longs to be initiated..some out of money calls say 3900-4000 type can be initiated later today ,stocks are at good valuations and some long positions can be initiated here for short to mid term for the pull backs (use own funds only which you can hold)....keep away from futures etc
All hourly & 5.Minute positive divergences vanished in a swift fall..Hold shorts if you have any..Close to 3000 levels or below expected.. Hourly that attempted a reversal yesterday in the last hour gave in to the larger daily & weekly downtrend. Now 3500 becomes a major resistance point during any rallies. With intermittent choppy rallies we should head to 3000 levels.
Though we have been in down trend since 6357 top with intermediate rallies and impulsive downmoves, for a day trader, there are only intra bounces to trade or in a flat opening a shorting opportunity and if any short term negative divergences, then there is a short positional trades.
I plan to just post the charts without much commentary unless absolutely warranted. The Tech. Table and charts are easy to read and I feel the commentary only kills your own perception of the market.
Friends,
These are time of turmoils.Everyone is passing through it.I am also no exception.
People who invested through borrowing is facing the worst time ever.Over leverage is should not be done at any cost.I have been writing this time and again here because I have passed through the same phase in my life.23 years in Indian stock market is no less an experinace.I have passed through everything. Lost my money , big money in stock market in past .I also made the mistake of borrowing money to invest in market and made the same mistake some of you are making now.I learned the hard way and seems you also will learn the hard way.
The main thing which one should learn is how to BOOK LOSS.
The whole world is seeing a capitulation.In recent times, means couple of days back, Brazil and Russian stock market were kept closed for 3 & 2 times each in 1 day.The fall was so big in one day that they have to be closed twice thrice in a day.
So from the BRIC nations, Brazil and Russia are almost gone.Now whose turn is it, is to be seen.Now left are India and China.Our market has still room to go down and that beware of A gr stocks which are of high price quoting at over rs 1000 levels like say Ril Ind,Grasim,L&T, Areva, etc etc.If the stock are 2 paid up or 1 paid up and if it is over rs 50 or 100 , means 500 or 1000 on 10 paidup will also be battered down in our market.Market has lost confidence.Even after the $700 bn bailout if US market is not showing sign of mercy how can we expect India to show resilience.When everyone wants to sell then there only one way and that is down.
I can't imagine how stocks can be available so cheap in just 9 months after a market makes a new high?Almost 70% of the stocks are available at half the BV or at 5 or below P/E.Maybe the P/E may contract more as the earnings may not come good but what about the BV?
Maybe there is still some poision left in A gr stocks and some cash gr stocks which are still high.So there is still room for our market to go down.
Well, someone asked me why I am not confessing or applauding Shankar Sharma about his downwards target he gave recently this year?They says I have critisized him.Now is the time to appreciate him.
Here is my answer:
I wants to know from him who advice me to appreciate SS that how many times SS went wrong in past?He went wrong in predicting the market more then 4-5 times.He was bearish since market crossed 7000 level.I remember seeing and hearing him.
I don't doubt his ability to see the things coming.He ofcourse is a great visioner but has failed to predict the market.His view is always good on some aspects.He brings new ideas and parametres as well and being a CA he is as good as RJ ,RA and likes.
But what I remember is he has proved wrong many times in this whole bull run right from 4000 to 21000.So has many others failed in past like Deepak and likes.
People have lost the opportunity to earn multiple returns when market was going up and they were sending bearish signals.Who is accountable for that?
In one of the interview at NDTV around 18th sep 08, which I see the most recent one, RJ says that 13700 is the bottom and market should take a good support from thereon.He was almost very confident that 12700 will never be breached.He went wrong in big way too.
Should I critiszie RJ? No! Why, because he has proved correct right from 5500 levels...about the bull market.....that unfolded upto 21k........and he still says that we have seen nothing.The mother of bull market is still to come and in that we may reach 40k.Shankar Sharma is still not telling that.He will never be able to tell because he is a BEAR.He never gives bullish target.He finds negatives and as soon as market goes up he will come out and give bearish views.
I can bet that.Just see what happen down the line 2-3 years.How many times he comes and gives view on market and of what type....
Well, coming back to market the easing of liquity due to infusion of $700 bn is going to create some confidence in US market.The hedge funds has lost money in Brazil and Russian markets, both are commodities market and they have tanked heavily.Hedge funds maybe shorting in US and India but they have lost billions in longs they created in Brazil, Russia and in Oils.
I remember SS came out with a bearish call on Oil at $110-115.That was no great.I gave a call much earlier about oil coming down.After the momentum breaks in bull cycle anyone can give the bearish call.
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