Nifty :: Last candle made A Long Lower Shadow ,a bullish signal near oversold-lower level .. Nifty try to hold long channel bottom support and close above it.. Now from here may be we see Nifty consolidation at lower level for up swing really.. Watch first strong support for 10th Oct. near 3476/3470, below it next support 3416 and strong support zone in between 3320 to 3230.. Resistance for up move at 3537/3581/3651/3667/3790.. Our strategy for 10th Oct. sell at high (at resistance) buy on dip (at support).. If breaks 3470 in early trade change your strategy as sell at high buy on dip. Avoid short selling near strong support zone 3476/3470(3320 to 3230)..(Above 3651 Buy on dip Sell at high)
In the last couple of years or more i have been updating my views mainly on technicals,markets,fundamentals,ideas and thoughts related to markets without being biased and devoid of personal indecisions or thoughts.
Now at this juncture seeing 675 points down on Dow Jones does send lot of shivers down my spine as it does for others. Personally i am not an avid trader and neither a focussed investor but as a disclosure am definitely buying at sub 11900 levels although the main focus is towards clients value which needs to be highly unbiased. And at this point of time i would like to put in a few of my personal thoughts at this crucial inflection point.
Few days back on September 30th when i had come out with a list of stocks when Dow Jones fell 700 + points in a day and Sensex was about to break below 12k and some capitulation which got delayed and it reversed from 12150, then i had mentioned that after so many months since January finally my comfort level is increasing for the long term and i still maintain that.
Maybe in next few weeks or months market may test the 9500-9700 mark. And i dont expect the markets to go below 8800 on weekly/monthly closing in next few months or even in years and if it does so then maybe the whole 13 year cycle which Indian markets were getting into goes into a toss which i dont see COMING . Now this maybe a highly optimistic statement to be made when the whole world is crashing, corporates , economists are all stunned , but i will continue to stick to my analysis and thoughts which are to invest at 9500-11900 with a long term view of 1-3-5 years for superlative returns in the 13 yr cycle.
Well worldover we are seeing a catastrophe of sorts with a major liquidity crunch which is crippling financial markets everywhere and India maybe insulated to an extent but is still not isolated and is definitely getting affected. But i continue to remain highly bullish on the long term and i see 9500-9700 as a great opportunity if it comes in coming months and i dont see 8800 being broken on weekly/monthly basis any time.
The last time i had used such harsh words , unusual optimism and clear views and highly contrarian was when markets were at 8800 and 12300 which were crucial junctures for a bear phase ---- click to read the links
8800----
12300 ----
So yet again i make myself clear in the similar style that times maybe tough and worse but i dont see Sensex breaking below 8800 on a weekly/monthly basis and expect 9500-9700 as the bottom zone ideally. If Sensex breaks below 8800 then it would no more be about equity markets which i would be worried of but about the economy which i live in , the assets (property , cash , etc etc ) as it may never come up and Sensex may go to 3k-6k.
Major Bearish scenario Indian markets will only creep if we give a weekly close below 8800 levels... If that happens it implies india is no more shining and i m out of Indian equities or assets to do anything else or any other country or any other job ,...If u believe india story then forget u can see sub 8k or 8800 levels if u do then shut shop on equities go off for better opportunities or secure places to survive .......
Repeating in the same style as i wrote at 12300 after which index touched 21k in less then a year .
" INVESTORS DONT SELL IN LOSS THEY SELL IN PANICS "
" Many investments become LONG TERM coz PRICES have dropped, BUT SUPERLATIVE Gaining Long term investments are created by buying when SENTIMENTS have DROPPED "
No takers even at 2 year Lows, Global crisis looms large
The Blood bath continues globally and Indian stock markets are no exceptions. From this year's high of 21000, the sensex has tasted the realities of 10,700 levels. This has left a large number of Investors mere spectators to the shocking depletion of their hard earned savings invested in stock markets to earn a reasonably good return. The outlook on Sensex and Nifty remains weak as the credit crisis unfolds further and the bailout package fails to impress the Investors. The current situation in global markets is not expected to reverse in short term and the markets would take a fairly long time to revive to respectable levels. The International monetary fund (IMF) has already issued a warning that the world economy is entering a major downturn in the face of the most dangerous financial shock in mature financial markets since the 1930s.
Understanding the Current Credit Crisis
If you think that the credit crisis started in the month of September with Lehman brothers declaring Bankruptcy, think again! The current global crisis had started giving signals of the impending danger as early as late 2006 when the US real estate markets started to tumble down. So far, it is estimated that banks worldwide have had to write-down more than $550 billion in assets. Let me tell you that this crisis is very deep rooted and it is just the beginning. There are many more banks in line to announce their failures and investors are losing trust over the measures announce to revive the economies. the general feeling is that this relief is just a temporary support and the loss of faith in the whole system cannot be regained with these measures. People are fearing that the worst is not over and the US and other big economies are moving into deep shit. Of course the impact will be felt globally.
Just check the chronology of events that unfolded this crisis and then we will talk about the impact of this crisis on India
March/April 2007: New Century Financial corporation stops making new loans as the practice of giving high risk mortgage loans to people with bad credit histories becomes a problem. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns of risks to global financial markets from weakened US home mortgage market.
June 2007: Alarm bells ring on Wall Street as two hedge funds of New York investment bank Bear Stearns lurch to the brink of collapse because of their extensive investments in mortgage-backed securities.
July/August 2007: German banks with bad investments in the US real estate market are caught up in the crisis, including IKB Deutsche Industrie bank, Sachsen LB (Saxony State Bank) and BayernLB (Bavaria State Bank).
US President George W Bush rejects government intervention to ease the crisis in the home mortgage market and says he wants the market to work. He later pledges help for struggling homeowners to help ease the mortgage crisis.
Foreclosures of US homes in July were up 93 percent from a year earlier, to 180,000 owners.
September 2007: British bank Northern Rock is besieged by worried savers; British government and Bank of England guarantee the deposits; the bank is nationalized. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) starts series of interest rate drops to ease impact of housing slump and mortgage crisis.
October 2007: Profits at US financial giant Citi group drop sharply. IMF lowers 2008 growth forecast for the euro area to 2.1 percent from 2.5 percent, in part because of spillover from the US sub-prime mortgage crisis and credit market crunch.
December 2007: Bush unveils plan to help up to 1.2 million homeowners pay their loans.
January 2008: Swiss banking giant UBS reports more than $18 billion in write-downs due to exposure to US real estate market. In the US, Bank of America acquires Countrywide Financial, the country's biggest mortgage lender. Fed slashes interest rate by three quarters of a percentage point to 3.5 percent following sell-off on global markets. Another cut at month's end lowers it to 3 percent.
February 2008: Fannie Mae, the largest source of money for US home loans, reports a $3.55-billion loss for the fourth quarter of 2007, three times what had been expected.
March 2008: On the verge of collapse and under pressure by the Fed, Bear Stearns is forced to accept a buyout by US investment bank JP Morgan Chase. The deal is backed by Fed loans of $30 billion.
In Germany, Deutsche Bank reports a loss of 141 million euros for the first quarter of 2008, its first quarterly loss in five years. Fed spearheads coordinated push by world central banks to bolster global economic confidence by announcing moves to pump $200-billion liquidity into markets.
Carlyle Capital falls victim to US credit crisis as it defaults on $16.6 billion of indebtedness. US frees up another $200 billion to back troubled Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
April 2008: IMF projects $945-billion losses from financial crisis. G7 ministers agree to new wave of financial regulation to combat protracted financial crisis.
June 2008: Home repossessions more than double as US housing crisis deepens. Bear Stearns execs join 400 charged with mortgage fraud.
July 2008: California mortgage lender IndyMac collapses. Troubles for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continue to grow. US Treasury, Fed move to guarantee debts of Fannie, Freddie. Bush defends move, telling Americans to take a "deep breath" and have "confidence in the mortgage markets."
US Congress gives final passage to multi-billion-dollar program to address mortgage and foreclosure crisis. Spain's largest property developer, Martinsa-Fadesa, declares insolvency.
September 7: US government seizes control of Fannie, Freddie in $200-billion bailout.
September 15: Lehman Brothers investment bank declares $600-billion bankruptcy. Merrill Lynch acquired by Bank of America.
September 17: US bails out AIG insurance giant for $85 billion.
September 19: White House requests $700-billion bailout plan from Congress for all financial firms with bad mortgage securities to free up tightening credit flow.
September 22: Last two standing investment banks, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, convert to bank holding companies.
September 26: Feds seize Washington Mutual in largest-ever US bank failure.
September 29: US House of Representatives rejects mammoth $700-billion bailout plan.
September 29: Governmental bail-outs announced for key banks in Britain, the Benelux and Germany as well as a state takeover of a bank in Iceland. British government intervenes to save major mortgage lender Bradford & Bingley. Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg to take over substantial parts of Belgian-Dutch banking and insurance company Fortis.
German Finance Ministry announces that government and top banks were moving to inject billions of euros into troubled mortgage lender Hypo Real Estate. Iceland government and Glitnir bank announce state takeover of 75-percent stake in Glitnir.
September 30: Wachovia Bank teeters on collapse, starts negotiating with Citi group for takeover deal.
October 1: US Senate adopts massive bail-out plan, adding sweeteners to get House acceptance.
October 3:The House passes the bailout bill. The House of Representatives approves the $700 billion economic rescue package by a vote of 263 to 171. President Bush signs the bill into law.
Wachovia snubs Citi group and agrees to be bought by Wells Fargo for $15.1 billion in stock. Citi group had offered to buy only Wachovia's banking business for $2.2 billion.
U.S. employers shed 159,000 jobs in September, the most in more than five years. The unemployment rate holds steady at 6.1 percent.
October 6:The Dow plunges almost 800 points before staging a late-day rally to close down 370 points, falling below 10,000 for the first time in four years
Bank of America agrees to rework the mortgage terms of up to 400,000 distressed borrowers to settle lawsuits pending against Countrywide Financial, the defunct mortgage lender it purchased in July.
Over the weekend, Germany says it will guarantee all private bank accounts after a $50 billion plan to rescue Hypo Real Estate collapses.
October 7:European finance ministers more than double the guarantee on bank deposits to 50,000 Euros.
October 8:The Federal Reserve and European Central banks simultaneously order emergency rate cuts of a half a percentage point early in the morning.
The International Monetary Fund predicts a major global economic downturn
Japan's Nikkei index falls 9.4 percent, its largest one-day loss since 1987. The British government promises to inject tens of billions of dollars in capital into U.K. banks after two consecutive days of dramatic stock market losses. (Source - Deutsche Welle & Washington Post)
Impact of Global Credit Crisis in India ?
So far we have heard of US and European Banks announcing failures. So back home in India, Are we safe and immune to the credit crisis ? Well, I would say that as of now Yes. There are three main reasons for saying so
1. Indian has a Saving oriented culture as against US and European countries which has a spending culture. They factor their future earnings and borrowing accordingly. Hence they enjoy their present at the cost of their future. In India, people sacrifice a part of their present enjoyment to enjoy in future. So our basics are in place and this foundation has so far kept India out of this failure.
2. The major trigger for the credit crisis was the downturn in US Housing markets. This is not the case with India. The real estate prices in India are stable and the probability of a sharp fall is ruled out.
3. The public sectors banks in India have stringent norms for providing loans and hence the quality of loans in India is comparatively much better.
Having said so, let me tell you that India is not averse to a credit crisis given the growth of 25-30 % credit growth we have seen in past few years. The private sector banks have been involved in a mad race to sell loans to individuals and if something of this sort happens in India Private sectors banks like ICICI bank, Citibank and other private sector plays will be in the forefront of this mess. Even then, the maximum impact I see is the erosion of the profitability of such banks and not a total failure, thanks to the stringent Banking regulations in India.
However Indian stock markets are not immune to the global crisis, and as more and more banks globally announce the failures, the markets are going to reflect the same in the indices. Since India has sizeable presence in the global markets, any global downtrend is sure to impact India and hence investors should keep this in mind. Since India has sizeable Foreign Institution Investment in Stock markets, any global downtrend will seriously impact the stock markets as the huge rise in sensex last year was majorly attributed to ample liquidity in the system which was brought by the FII Investments.
The Liquidity Game
The biggest concern for the Indian markets are that FII are fleeing from the scene. While FII's have pulled out nearly $10 billion from the Indian stock markets, the taps of liquidity have dried up. Mutual funds are seeing huge redemption pressure and individual investors who are already stuck with their money invested at higher levels in markets have lost confidence and are not ready to invest further. As I write this post Dow Jones and Nasdaq are down by more than 4% and it shows that investors do not confidence on the bailout package offered by the government. Dow has seen 5 year low today !
I feel that this is not the end of the whole drama and I expect further pullout by the FII's and hedge funds from the Indian markets as they face difficulties back at their homes.
Crude and Inflation become lesser evils
When the stock markets in India started falling in the month of March, the blame was squarely put on the rising Crude Oil and staggering rise in inflation. However, Crude has come off its high of $140 per barrel to $84 per barrel on fears of lower demand due to ongoing crisis. Inflation has also started drifting downwards and the huge fall in Crude oil prices as well as commodity prices is expected to bring it down further. However, both of these factors have taken a backseat now given the bigger evil of global slowdown concerns.
How much can sensex fall from here ?
The sensex is near the 11,000 levels and has already tested the 10,700 levels. Given the concern that the current crisis is not yet over and the relief measures are not working, I expect the markets to fell further. The extent of further fall will depend on the how the crisis unfolds going forward, but a primarily it looks that the sensex may even touch 9,000 levels if the global situation is not brought under control. So we still have a risk of couple of thousand points from here. You can wait before buying into the stocks and you will find better prices to enter from a long term perspective. Don't get carried away by small bouts of up-moves and use them to get rid of some bad positions. Don't try to trade for short term as the markets would be very volatile. Any long term Investment should only be made from at least 2 Years perspective.
In the chart shown below, it is evident that Nifty is in a downward channel. I had shown this quite early when the whole world was hell bound on 5000 and above levels in How Will The Bear Market Saga Unfold? Markets have been religiously following it since then and will continue to do so for sometime.
Now for some technical analysis ( actually I feel it is more of logical reasoning). We are almost at the end of the downward channel and here is the important part. If some level has to form an intermediate bottom, it is important that it is tested as seen in last intermediate bottom of 3790. This means that coming few days it will be very volatile. Nifty VIX is currently at 39.30, however to form a bottom it should ideally be somewhere around 50 or above which is due. The levels I have got from 360 degree analysis for an intermediate bottom are 3332,3315,3293 and 3255. I am proceeding with the worst case scenario. After forming such bottom Nifty should correct ( meaning rise ) to around 4000 levels. 4000 odd levels should be the level at which new shorting activity should take place and which will give 1000 odd points. Slow stoch and RSi also indicate formation of intermediate bottom. So guys this will be another chance to get rid of long position or it will be only pain.
Some basis for my analysis ( and mind you this is indicative and not firm for the predicted values or date) which will be updated as time passes
Here is some interesting statistics for you. It is now very clear that Us and other developed countries indulged in some big time profit making without caring a lot about good practices. The basic problem is that US financial institution developed some exotic instruments called CDS or Credit Default Swaps. Wikipedia explains it as below
"A credit default swap (CDS) is a contract in which a buyer pays a series of payments to a seller, and in exchange receives the right to a payoff if a credit instrument goes into default or on the occurrence of a specified credit event, for example bankruptcy or restructuring. The associated instrument does not need to be associated with the buyer or the seller of this contract."
This instrument was something which US financial industry thought was the best way to make money and that too big time. The reason that US is in turmoil because everyone thought that housing market would always rise and they kept on increasing the exposure. Unfortunately because of slowdown in growth the housing markets crashed and this was followed with payments related to CDS. Just to give a ballpark figure, Bank for International Settlements has figure of approx 60 Trillion of outstanding CDS contracts. Just imagine 700 Billion compared to 60 Trillion or 60,000 Billion. It is impossible to clear this mess. Any amount of co-ordinated attempt will not be successful. AIG is one such behemoth where this is taking a toll. God save the Americans and other developed nations whre this has been followed. Unfortunately the FII's( american one) are now short of capital and they will take it out from where they can. China is down alomost 70% from 52 week highs and India is only 40% odd. I don't think Chinese economy is doing bad and neither are we. If China can go down 70% so can we.
I am not trying to scare but telling the truth which is hidden from us by the Business channels which only shows rosy pictures. Think on this and speculate where we can reach. 2000 for Nifty. Does it look probable now?
Down and out. The pullback to 1150+ might never happen. Welcome the bear markets of 2009.
(1) Smart money knows the end of world stock market Bull Run within 2-3 month. They enter in September..
(2) Smart money book profit at high on February (after 5 month& at that time we given bearish Wolfe wave pattern at high)..
(3 )Is they again enter in last August (After 6 month & we generate buy signal in gold with our spacial Sunday chart ) for next 3-5 month..??
(4) If they enter for next 3-5 month, Gold break $ 925 (last high) for target of 1100 to 1200.. And may be stock market pull beck end within 1-2 month.. .
..OR..
If Gold break $ 825 stock market pull beck stretch up to 3-5 month…
(Here we try predict stock market cycle without any indicator or without any deep calculation of Elliott wave…. !!! )
IDFC ( weekly, 3 years)IDFC has been beaten down by the bears relentlessly. This stock has been the poster boy of last bull run. See how on weekly charts the MACD and ADX crossover had indicated its bull run and now bear mauling.Fundamentally though I feel these levels are good to consider investing in IDFC. It has been through a downtrend since January 08. Prices have fallen from the highs of 220 to 57 today. FIIs who held substantial quantities of IDFC have exited in good amount. When IDFC listed at 72 three years back, I thought I had missed this stock. But today it is flying low enough for all of us who want to add more. Technically though there may be a risk of further downfall. But one must watch this stock carefully for a possible reversal soon.
As a company this stock has been doing pretty well. They have the right pedigree, right businesses, right vision. They have been buying stake in small infrastructure companies for future growth. Investors must do their own analysis and evaluate. I shall be adding here with a five year perspective though.
rgds
The Indian market opened weak not and slide more further as day progress fell more than 7%But after sun outage nifty saw sharp pull back and close above 3500 levels .For coming session if nifty open above 3551 it can test 3617-3698 on the lower side 3310 will act support zone .Short- term pullback rally can touch 3800-3930 levels stop-loss 3310.
HOT RANBAXY
Hello,Nifty Chart indicates a short term technical bounce from current levels. As updated by sms & previous posts that if we break below 3800 then we may even test 3600 - 3400 levels. Nifty made intra day low of 3329 & managed to close above 3500.
If Nifty consolidates at current levels for few days then it may gather more momemtum for sharp run up. In markets we can see now that Distress selling has been happening as lack of buyers available, so the stocks are more hammered as due to losses made by foreign cos they need to sell holding's in India to generate liquidty. So worldwide selling is happening in all major markets.
Many world markets hace reached important levels from where they can get some bounce after so much hammers. Recently many World banks have cut Interest rates to boost liquidity in the system & some Central banks have even come up with some bail out packages before anything happens to their money markets.
Basically this is good sign in the near for many financial markets, before few months we have lot many -ve news in the markets like Crude rising, Inflation rising, Subprime etccccc But all these -ve news are being discounted now in the markets & also Crude has fallen, inflation easing, Bailout packages out , N deal signed, so all this are +ve signs for the markets in the days & months to come. It will take some time but things wil be normal soon.
Standard Chartered Bank, the second largest foreign bank in India after Citigroup, has held back disbursement of loans sanctioned to DLF and Unitech. The bank declined to comment on the development. Spokespersons of the two real estate developers also did not want to comment on the issue.
Industry sources said Standard Chartered's decision against increasing their exposure to the real estate sector is in view of a slowdown in home sales as property prices have reached unaffordable levels, particularly in the metros.
StanChart is not the only one pulling out of financing real estate developers.
Almost all banks have withdrawn from funding real estate developers, a segment considered as "sensitive" by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
Banks want to limit or reduce their exposure to real estate developers because this sector could be in severe trouble in the event of a prolonged slowdown in home sales. All the financial crises in the last 30-odd years have had their origins either in the equity markets or the real estate sector. The current financial crisis too had its origin in the crash of the US housing market.
The total exposure of banks to real estate developers at the end of March 2008 was Rs 62,276 crore. The growth in these loans in 2007-08 had dropped to 37 per cent from 69 per cent in 2006-07.
The increase in housing loans extended by commercial banks too slowed significantly in 2007-08. During the year, the increase in home loans was just 10.7 per cent against 24.7 per cent in 2006-07.
Thanks
'Too little, too late' for rate cuts
Interest rate reductions fail to boost confidence; investors worry
central banks are losing powers to sway markets
October 9, 2008
WASHINGTON -- A rare dose of co-ordinated interest rate relief from
central banks around the world has failed to allay fears of recession,
deflation and a more severe financial meltdown.
Digging deep into a depleted store of options, Canadian, U.S. and
European central banks cut their benchmark lending rates by a half
percentage point yesterday.
But after a historic series of bailouts, cash infusions and now
interest rate cuts, concern is mounting that authorities are running
out of ideas - and time - as the credit crisis drags the world's
leading economies into recession.
The rates cuts are necessary, but "too little, too late," warned New
York University economist Nouriel Roubini.
"European central banks should have cut rates many months ago - before
the recession and financial crisis became so virulent," he said.
The moves left many investors unimpressed, and craving more.
After a brief rally following the first co-ordinated rate cut since
9/11, stocks ended sharply lower across North America and Europe,
highlighted by a 189-point drop in the Dow Jones industrial average to
9258 - a sixth consecutive day of steep losses.
The Bank of Canada's half-point cut to 2.5 per cent was quickly
undermined by the five major commercial banks, which cut their prime
lending rate by only a quarter of a percentage point.
Global credit markets remain dysfunctional as banks continue to be
fearful of lending to consumers, businesses and each other, preferring
instead to hoard their cash. And it's not clear how rate cuts will
change that.
"The advanced economies will experience an ugly recession and an ugly
financial crisis regardless of what we do from now on," Mr. Roubini
said, reflecting the pessimism of many investors.
The U.S. Federal Reserve Board, which cut its key federal funds rate
to 1.5 per cent from 2 per cent, doesn't have much more room to cut.
Still, many economists expect the Fed to cut again when its interest-
rate-setting committee meets in late October.
"The pace of economic activity has slowed markedly in recent months,"
the Fed said in its announcement. "Moreover, the intensification of
financial market turmoil is likely to exert additional restraint on
spending, partly by further reducing the ability of households and
businesses to obtain credit."
The early morning announcement came amid a rapid decline on stock
markets in Asia, where the Japanese Nikkei 225 closed down more than 9
per cent before the rate announcement.
The Bank of Japan would have joined the global effort, but its rates
are already near zero - a scenario that is of growing concern in the
West as it could spark the sort of deflationary spiral not seen since
the Great Depression.
Yesterday's official rate cuts could be a prelude to more co-ordinated
action over the weekend, when finance ministers and central bankers
from Canada and the other G7 economies meet in Washington.
Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the International
Monetary Fund, said he welcomed the rate cuts, but urged member
countries to do more, including injecting capital directly into
troubled banks - as Britain did yesterday - and providing credit
directly to households and businesses.
"This is the right course of action in the face of the deflationary
impact of the major financial shock in mature markets and against a
background of declining inflation pressures," Mr. Strauss-Kahn said.
"Additional co-ordinated actions would be warranted to address key
remaining challenges."
The IMF warned yesterday that the U.S. and most other industrialized
countries are poised to slip into recession in the face of the worst
financial conditions since the 1930s. And the IMF raised its estimate
of global banking industry losses in the U.S. to $1.4-trillion, up
from a previous estimate of $945-billion in April.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson refused to hint at what the G7
might do. But he rejected Britain's suggestion that the G7 countries
get together and guarantee interbank lending. He told reporters that
while international co-ordination is helpful, pursuing identical
responses to the crisis doesn't make sense given the different
circumstances of member countries.
Mr. Paulson urged patience, warning it will take time for the
government's initiatives to work, including a $700-billion (U.S.) plan
to scoop up banks' toxic mortgage assets. And he said more banks will
fail before the dust settles.
"It's too early to look for encouraging signs in credit markets," Mr.
Paulson said. "It's going to take a whole lot to work through the
problems."
Experts said G7 countries must do much more before the credit turmoil
eases.
"We need to see the recent U.K. bank recapitalization announcement
spread to other countries before we can conclude that the worst is
over," BCA Research Inc. said in a research report yesterday. "The
major countries may also be forced to provide a blanket guarantee for
all bank liabilities before the crisis ends."
BCA said U.S. authorities should raise the size of the bank bailout
and temporarily abandon mark-to-market accounting rules, which have
eroded the capital of banks.
New York University's Mr. Roubini said the government should inject
capital directly into banks, launch a massive public works spending
program and temporarily guarantee all bank deposits. Congress recently
approved an increase in the deposit insurance cap to $250,000 from
$100,000.
The British government announced a partial privatization of its
banking sector yesterday. "This is not a time for conventional
thinking or outdated dogma but for the fresh and innovative
intervention that gets to the heart of the problem," said British
Prime Minister Gordon Brown.
Global co-ordination
Six central banks cut their key rates yesterday hoping to ease the
economic effects of a financial crisis.
Britain: 4.5%
Sweden: 4.25%
Euro zone: 3.75%
Canada: 2.5%
Switzerland: 2.5%
U.S.: 1.5%
10-10-2008 Friday
DATE INDICATOR GREEN- BULLISH RED - BEARISH YELLOW- WAIT & WATCH
IF NIFTY SPOT DO NOT CROSS 4284 AND 4379 THEN.....
Ready for a big correction......up to 3621(Achieved) & 3219 Open.
NEWS LETTER COMING SOON........
Happy & Safe Trading
Daily Tips:-
1) Buy ACC Above @ 576 Target 591-609 to 651.
2) Buy BOB Above @ 283 Target 292-302 to 324.
3) Buy BHEL Above @ 1470 Target 1517-1561 to 1671.
4) Buy GAIL Above @ 251 Target 263-278 to 312.
5) Buy HEROHONDA Above @ 877 Target 908-941 to 1021.
6) Buy HINDALCO Above @ 92 Target 95-99 to 109.
7) Buy ONGC Above @ 969 Target 983-1000 to 1039.
8) Buy SATYAM Above @ 265 Target 282-298 to 337.
9) Buy VSNL Above @ 468 Target 476-488 to 515.
10) Sell NF Below @ 3515 Target 3404-3259 to 3038.
11) Sell TATAELEXSI Below @ 104 Target 95-85 to 64.
12) Sell SIEMENS Below @ 327 Target 314-300 to 267.
13) Sell L&T Below @ 955 Target 927-884 to 793.
14) Sell HLL Below @ 237 Target 231-222 to 204.
15) Sell CMC Below @ 366 Target 351-329 to 283.
Note--- If market open green then buy our buying tips and If market open red then sell our sell tips.
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The Monthly Nifty Charts show the downward sloping channel..the touch down was app.3290-3300 , markets moved fast furiuos yesterday towards it , but stopped short at 3329.45..,turned and covered ground fast despite continuos selling & kept recovering till the close.The speed lines show the 3rd final supports around 3100 area..(i have 3140-3150 as a value of nifty for final support )below which could be a free fall..last we tested this support line was MAY'04...If this bottom holds , we can expect a bounce to 4100 area as per speed lines and any turn of trend can take us to top of the channel which today is .. 4300 area ..The Monthly Stochastics & RSI are fast nearing the oversold territory( from January'08 tops) but still pointing downwards due to relentless selling of last 1 week. As and when they turn , the market can look upwards..for a while , will the relief rally come , surely why not as everything is grossly overdone..MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHEN..??????The best thing we can do here is start to look for signs like, higher bottoms /higher tops...& see that the bottoms made are not breached .Do keep in mind that the last one weeks fall put in a huge STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO ALL STOCK/FINANCIAL MARKETS OF THE WORLD. And recovery will be a bit slow and over time..Hope this helps all friends visiting here.. cheers..
PS: Monthly charts are used for finding future footprints from the past for longterm.
The salvation army is back - this time cutting rates all over across the globe. Do you think this is gonna help? No! There is a limit to printing money like this.Wishing everyone a happy Dassera.
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