Stocks to watchout for :
LIC housing is coming close to 210-220 zone which if breaks could crack badly if it doesnt expect yet another bounce. Bharti not ready to fall . Nalco also nearing tgts.
BHEL has reached the target zones and could be an investment buy closer to 1000-950 zones.
Aban Offshore seems to be bottoming around and could see a bounce if crosses 1170 could tgt 1300 after which 1500.
JSW steel seems oversold and could see a bounce back if sustains the recent low of 240 .Above 280 could see 310-350 levels also.
KOTAK Mahindra Bank below 390 could see a drop to 320-350 quickly.... Traders can keep a watch .. Above 500 could be a different thing altogether.
Sunday Thoughts :
RBI , Fed , Sebi , opec and many other bodies, govts from US,India , Europe have continued to take steps to avert the financial crisis surrounding the world. But in spite of the steps financial markets have continued to remain under pressure or rather gone down heavily. Although my economic understanding wont give me much idea on whether the steps are good or not but seem to be in right direction. There is one thing all technical analyst assume is " Markets are Supreme" . So we would prefer a price-disovery by markets themselves then by external means and that precisely could be the reason why markets have not responded positively to FED cuts, crr cuts , bailouts...
Similarly if we remember RBI tried to hike CRR all through 2007-2008 to reduce the pace. P-note ban by Sebi and other steps could not stop the running market. Also OPEC tried its best to stop crude price run but still it kept shooting. But after a gap of time market discovers the exact pricing and we saw Sensex breakdown quickly , Crude falling sharply.
Generally what happens is the first step may see a good pull but every next step may lead to uncertainty and much more fall. Like on p-note ban markets hit lower circuit but recovered and hit new highs. Similarly we saw a good pull up after say bailout CRR , fed cut etc but made a new low. There have been many steps being taken by fed, rbi , sebi and yet again i may not be a best juge but i believe they are running out of any more steps left.
Although many street people may be tensed that govts, rbi,sebi , fed are not having many lifelines or aces in their hand to stop the financial markets turmoil but i believe they are more focussed towards liquidity,inflation , money flow and other economic turmoils which are seeing some effect.
Somehow as an analogy to last so many critical events it seems markets could create a pullback when the external interventions stop or reduce. It does seem we have seen most of interventions in near term unless there is a much bigger problem which surfaces out of thin air . Price discovery by markets are always better and are not short-lived !!! and it doesnt seem far !!!
( RBI repo rate cut done so not much cuts left , FED cuts done maybe another stimulus package , SEBI only thing left is short-selling ban which every other govt has exhausted , Indian govt hasnt used bailouts which if not done would imply better economic strength ..... Data suggests we are nearing the end of major economic steps for the near term ! )
Balrampur Chini seems to have over corrected in the sugar sector and seems has come to a level where it could start consolidating for some time... Buy around 43-45 stop of 39 for long term targets of 58 -75 or more.
IFCI .
Nifty :: An insider day with positive bias. In bottom we see heavy volatility. As we say from last 3-4 days Nifty is in extremely oversold zone. In one level above 3140 momentum seems up, below 3100 momentum down. Our strategy for 21st Oct. Buy on deep sell at high.( it mean bias positive and we trade only for buying ..Wait for intraday small correction and when we see supports came at lower level we are going to buy only and we avoid shorting in today’s trade).. For up move our strong support zone 3230 to 3320 works as resistance .Close above 3320 give more thrust in upswing.. Watch resistance 3140/3230/3338/3380/3396/3430, Supports 3071/3050/3000/2900/2783/2678..
The Indian market opened on positive note and close in green zone. Nifty is forming falling wedge pattern as we had mention in weekly updates breaking below trend-line pattern will invalid still upper target will 3296-3354 with stop-loss of 3054
here's the much discussed falling wedge now developing on nifty chart, the volumes are declining and positive divergence showing on rsi indicator. it needs a bullish breakout with volume above the wedge upper tline, the upper tgt after a break out will be upto 3600. this if happens will probably mean our C-3-(4) and C-3-(5) completed and C-4 will be on with already given tgt that matches very well.
but a close with volume below recent low of 3047 and further will negate this. and the wedge/triangle then i will perhaps mark just as C-3-(4), as it fits in time reqd for its completion, with further waves C-3-(5) etc to follow thereafter.
pls refer to my ew chart posted earlier for reference.
so it seems the movement of nifty in next couple of days will be interesting and will provide the direction to trade.
elow table shows companies with low market cap than cash on books.
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