Nifty :: After an counter attack type candle pattern Nifty made outside day bearish candle. Exactly came down from high of various type of Elliott wave target on turning date.. As we say in last post once again a-c line works as strong resistance.. Now on 21st Oct. watch 5102 once Nifty break 5102 next strong support zone in between 5058 to 5047 and final support 5013.. Our midterm buying S.L slightly revise as 5013 as closing basis.. May be bulls forcefully try to hold all this support above 5000.. And that’s why our strategy for 21st Oct up to 5053 buy in deep (S.L 5047) Sell at high (S.L 5200) ..If Nifty open gap down in morning and break 5102 try to catch it only near 5073 with strictly S.L 5047.. If Nifty move up then watch strong resistance zone in between 5175 to 5200 and change your strategy as sell at high (S.L 5200) buy in deep.. Resistance for up move at 5145/5075/5082/5200.. Supports at 5102/5081/5073/5053/5013..
I have been going through some stock which I feel looking extremly good.I am listing it here with some comments on that....
1)Investment Precision and CastingLtd...cmp rs 134.....
This is one co which is in Casting sector with a very low eq and am seeing some movement and buying from informed circles......a la Lumax Ind type....of stock...
2)Alfa Laval Ltd..cmp Rs .1243.00
A MNC co which went for a buyback at Rs 1000 this year and promoters has increased the holding by over 10% and now hold almost over 88%.....It is another wonderful co with great fundamentals.Procure an order for BioFuel plant from Vietnam.....at Rs 1250 is going damn cheap...
3) APW President Ltd....cmp Rs 122.00...
This is one co which I am tracking so long but never able to recomend it here but am rectifying my previous error before it runs more .This is another co which can come in Power sector like Thermax......Great results and great management.
4)Patel Airtemps Ltd...cmp Rs...64.00
Promoters has constantly increasing the holding through open market deal.Great future....
SRF Ltd has crossed 200 mark and long way to go still.Tinplate after the right issue came down to below 50 and now at 66.....great co to buy still.....Gayatri Pro ltd recomended at 166 is now at rs 379 and lots of steam still left..there are score of stock which I have recomended which has gone through the roof......I hope readers must be benifitting from them......
My latest pick KPIT Cummins has jumped from 77 to 85....but I am seeing that some of the readers are taking advantage of my call to buy and exit with small profit after it has been recomended here and stock runup immidiately.
I have no problem with that but then they need not come and ask me whether the stock is still good to hold......it is their decision to sell at whatever profit they had and hence there is nothing left to be asked......as I have always written here that my call will give above average return then market.......
Sanghvi movers limited is the flagship company of the Sanghvi Group, which is one of the largest crane hiring company in India. It has been ranked as the 4th largest in Asia and 12th largest in the world by Cranes International. The company contains a fleet of 300 medium sized heavy duty hydraulic and crawler cranes with capacities ranging from 20 to 800 tons.
For the financial year FY 09, we have seen most of the real estate companies, oil and gas companies and construction players reporting huge drop in sales and earnings. However, Sanghvi due to it's leadership position has managed to come out unscathed. For the financial year FY 09, the company reported a Sales turnover of 357 crore and a net profit of 101 crore. The growth was around 40% in the top line and 40% in the bottom line. These numbers are really impressive considering the slowdown that we were witnessing in real estate and construction spaces.
The company undertakes implementation of turnkey projects, including providing of well maintained equipments, expert technical services and skilled manpower. The company has a very good track record in terms of the work that they do and the client list contains some of the most reputed names. The clients include Reliance, Suzlon, Tata power, NTPC, ONGC, L & T, BHEL ....
The visible advantage that the company would derive looking at its client list is the diversity of the clients they have. Sanghvi movers is exposed to spaces like Real Estate, Engineering, Power, Infra, Petro chemicals...
The company has bee aggressively increasing its capacities over the last 2 to 3 years and it currently contains more than 300 cranes at various capacity requirements. However, going forward the company is planning to spend less on Capex plans and is planning to reducing the debts on the books, which is very prudent. The company has actually reported that they are planning to remove the debt off its books in another 3 years time.
The company had recently come out as the sole bidder for many of the the tenders that BHEL had floated. Also, the company would be big beneficiary from the various Ultra Mega Power projects that have been planned. The company is currently the front runner for the tenders floated for the Sasan UMPP.
The company being a leader in the Crane leasing and operating space commands some very impressive margins. The Company can boast of an OPM of around 77% with a net profit margin of around 28%. With a recovery in spaces that Sanghvi operates on, this leader is a stock worth looking at.
For the financial year FY 09, we have seen most of the real estate companies, oil and gas companies and construction players reporting huge drop in sales and earnings. However, Sanghvi due to it's leadership position has managed to come out unscathed. For the financial year FY 09, the company reported a Sales turnover of 357 crore and a net profit of 101 crore. The growth was around 40% in the top line and 40% in the bottom line. These numbers are really impressive considering the slowdown that we were witnessing in real estate and construction spaces.
The company undertakes implementation of turnkey projects, including providing of well maintained equipments, expert technical services and skilled manpower. The company has a very good track record in terms of the work that they do and the client list contains some of the most reputed names. The clients include Reliance, Suzlon, Tata power, NTPC, ONGC, L & T, BHEL ....
The visible advantage that the company would derive looking at its client list is the diversity of the clients they have. Sanghvi movers is exposed to spaces like Real Estate, Engineering, Power, Infra, Petro chemicals...
The company has bee aggressively increasing its capacities over the last 2 to 3 years and it currently contains more than 300 cranes at various capacity requirements. However, going forward the company is planning to spend less on Capex plans and is planning to reducing the debts on the books, which is very prudent. The company has actually reported that they are planning to remove the debt off its books in another 3 years time.
The company had recently come out as the sole bidder for many of the the tenders that BHEL had floated. Also, the company would be big beneficiary from the various Ultra Mega Power projects that have been planned. The company is currently the front runner for the tenders floated for the Sasan UMPP.
The company being a leader in the Crane leasing and operating space commands some very impressive margins. The Company can boast of an OPM of around 77% with a net profit margin of around 28%. With a recovery in spaces that Sanghvi operates on, this leader is a stock worth looking at.
Radha Madhav Corporation Limited, is a company into manufacturing of multi product packaging solutions, and is now transforming itself from being only a manufacturer of packaging materials and is emerging as a packaging consultant capable of providing customized packaging and printing solutions.
RMCL is a good and dedicated company, with very impressive results till 2008. The company definitely has good earning potential as shown in past, and also it does not depend on just one kind of packaging, it has on offer all kind of packaging solutions.
RMCL is a good and dedicated company, with very impressive results till 2008. The company definitely has good earning potential as shown in past, and also it does not depend on just one kind of packaging, it has on offer all kind of packaging solutions.
FOR DATE 21-10-2009
SCRIP = LIC HOUSING FINANCE LTD. (NSE),
SCRIP CODE = LICHSGFIN,
PREVIOUS CLOSE = 840.15,
STOP LOSS = 819,
TARGET = 1001.
FOR INTRADAY MOVEMENT OF THE STOCKFILTER PLEASE Click Here!
(OR CLICK THE LINK ABOVE LIVE SENSEX WATCH.)
CHART AS ON 20-10-2009
WITH A CONSIDERABLE RISE IN VOLUMES, THE STOCK HAS GIVEN A FRESH BREAKOUT IN THE LAST TRADING SESSION. THE STOCK IS IN A VERY STRONG UP TREND FROM MARCH AND WAS IN CONSOLIDATION SINCE SEPTEMBER.
THE STOCHASTICS, RSI AND MACD SHOW A POSITIVE CROSSOVER.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT SUGGESTS THIS COUNTER GOOD FOR A SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM RANGE.
STRICTLY MAINTAIN AND FOLLOW THE STOP LOSS.
STOCKS TO WATCH:(BUY ON DIPS)
GVKPIL,
TRIVENI,
HCL TECH,
POLARIS,
APIL,
BANG O,
AURBINDO PH,
ISPAT,
RAYMOND
LIC HSG FIN,
GE SHIP,
STC INDIA,
NTPC,
DENA BANK
INTRADAY
HCL TECH BUY ABV 319 SL 305 TGT 325/SELL BLW 292 SL 297 TGT 285
R.COM BUY ABV 239 SL 233 TGT 245/SELL BLW 224 SL 228 TGT 218
Stock Watch- Xpro India Limited (Short term target - 50)
APIL SL 540 TGT 650
EKC SL 199 TGT 230
TOMM NIFTY MAY OPEN WITH -VE BIAS & MAY C SUPP NEAR 5077-5066
LVLS,MAY C SHARP UPMOVE THR
Above 5145 no short
Below 5097 no long
Sell NF Below @ 5097 and 5089 Target 5074-5027 to 4932.SSL-5136.
Main support level 5085-5061-5034
Buy NF Above @ 5120 and 5136 Target 5169-5216 to 5227.SSL-5089.
Main resistance 5151-5171-5388.
Some More Recommendation
Bartronics India Ltd: - CMP: - 169
Bartronics had a sharp rally from 53 to 192, which recovered
near about 61.80% of the fall from 294 to 47. After the sharp
rally, stock started to trade in the range of 141 to 199, which
indicates consolidation in Wave B. Bartronics is trading in a
channel wherein upper end of the channel is acting as resistances
and lower end of the channel as
support. Currently, Stock is trading near lower end of the channel
so closes below lower end of channel would indicate further weakness.
However, if it holds above Lower end of the channel, it would target
upper end of the channel.
We recommend BUY o Bartronics above 187 with a stop loss of 154 on
closing basis for the price target of 219, 241 and 273 in short term.
Birla Corporation Ltd: CMP: - 300
Birla Corp. has formed a good support at Blue Trend Line. As we
can see from above chart, stock has rallied from 70 to 326 thereafter
it has corrected till 23.60% of the rally (i.e. 265). After forming
a Double Bottom at 267 Birla Corp. has started showing some strength
. For the Short term, until Birla Corp. sustains above Blue trend
line downside looks remote.
We recommend BUY on Birla Corp. above 326 with a stop loss of 311
on closing basis for the price target of 339, 348 and 362 in near
term. For Short term or long traders use decline as an opportunity
for BUY for the price target of 386, 423 and 484.
Cairn India Ltd: - CMP: - 279
In last trading session, Cairn has given a breakout by closing
above Red Trend Line, which has proved as a strong resistance in past trading sessions. Multiple times Cairn managed to break above Red Trend line but failed. If it gives a close above Red Trend Line with huge volumes, it’ll indicate bullishness.
We recommend BUY on Cairn India with a stop loss of 252 on
closing basis for the price target of 291, 302 and 319 in near term.
Garware Offshore Services Ltd: - CMP: - 160
Recent Top (i.e. 200) is accurately marked at 61.80% of
the fall. This means stock has fall from 294 to 51 thereafter
recovering 61.80% of the fall. Thus 201 will act as major hurdle.
After forming a top at 200 Stock has developed Wave B i.e.
corrective wave wherein downside can test till 143 (38.20%)
or 126 (i.e. 50 % of the rally).
We recommend BUY on Garware offshore above 201 with a stop
loss of 164 on closing basis for the price target of 236,
258 and 292 in Short term.
ICSA (India) Ltd: - CMP: - 203
ICSA has fallen from 650 to 47. After forming a bottom at
47 ICSA recovered 28% (i.e. 216) of the fall now, which is
acting as a hurdle. As we can see from above chart, ICSA
has rallied from 47 to 215 which is marked as Wave A after
that Wave B has emerged and corrected nearby 50% of the
rally (i.e. 141). ICSA many a times crossed over Red Trend
Line but failed to give a close that proved the resistance
at Wave A top (i.e. 215) on closing basis.
We recommend to BUY ICSA India above 215 with a stop-loss
of 175 on closing basis for the target of 254, 279 and 318.
IVRCL Infrastructures & Projects Ltd: - CMP: - 412
IVRCL Infra has fallen from 627 to 57, which is 91% cut
from top. After placing a bottom at 57, IVRCL with last
trading session recovered 61.80% of the fall (i.e. 409).
As per the retracement theory, if IVRCL crosses over 409
then upside can see till 505 (i.e. 78.60%) and 564
(89% of the fall). However, IVRCL has a hurdle at
Red Trend Line crossover, which will see further upside.
We recommend BUY on IVRCL Infra on decline with a stop-loss
of 340 on closing basis for the target of 461, 492 and 564
in short term.
Jaiprakash Associates Ltd: - CMP: - 252
As we can see from above chart, JP Assoc. has a formed
a good support at Blue Trend Line and in last trading
session given a break out of by closing above Red Trend
Line with decent volume. Thus, two more closings above
Red Trend Line will see more upside till 272 to 284.
Since JP Assoc. has sustained above 219 (38.20% of fall)
it has opened an upside till 50% and 61.80% of fall.
We recommend BUY on Jaiprakash Assoc. with a stop-loss
of 239 on closing basis for the target of 265, 273 and
285 in short term. Long-term traders can see upside till
325 and 391 as long as the stock sustain above 219 on
closing basis.
Jyoti Structures Ltd: - CMP: - 154
Jyoti Structures has formed a Zig-Zag Pattern with higher
bottom. In past trading, stock has shown a good support
at Blue Trend Line. As we can see from above chart, Jyoti
structures has many times taken support at Blue Trend Line
and moved till RedTrend Line. Since Jyoti Structures is
trading near Blue trend line, upside till Red Trend Line
can be seen in coming days.
We recommend BUY in Jyoti Structures with a stop-loss of
122 on closing basis for the target of 177, 194 and 222 in short term.
Techno Electric & Engineering Company Ltd: - CMP: - 150
Techno has fallen from 370 to 51. Thereafter with recent
top i.e. 202 Techno has recovered almost 50% of fall.
So the rally from 51 to 202 is marked as wave A thereafter
stock is under Wave B wherein it has already corrected
38.20% of rally. Any further decline would take the
stock towards 50% of rally (i.e. 126). Thus, traders
should adopt wait n watch strategy.
As per the retracement theory, upside would develop
in Techno only above 211.
Voltamp Transformers Ltd: - CMP: - 814
As we can see form above chart, Voltamp is oscillating
in a channel and forming higher top and higher bottom.
With current trading pattern Voltamp has a resistance
at 846. Voltamp had fallen from 1910 to 260. Voltamp
faces a hurdle at 891 on closing basis, which is 38.20%
of fall. Thus, Voltamp closing above 891 will open up
higher levels till 1080 to 1280.
We recommend BUY on Voltamp above 846 with a stop-loss
of 808 on closing basis for the target of 881, 904
and 940 in near term. For long term trader keep an
eye above 948 on closing basis wherein above 948
will see 1110, 1211 and 1373.
GNFC
GNFC is likely to show an EPS of Rs. 19.7/Share in
FY2010. At CMP Rs. 98, it trades at 5 times forward
EPS. Given the Govt focus to output in RABI season
and demand growth in Chemicals user industries,
Investors may BUY in Rs.90-97 range for a target
of Rs.120 in mid term.
Adhunik Metaliks
Valuation
At the current price of 116, the stock is discounting
its FY11E BV by 1.9x, FY11E EV/EBITDA by 6.85x and
FY11EPS by 10.6x. We value the company on its FY10E
consolidated BV. Taking into account the stable business
outlook, high quality mining reserves and the prospects
ahead with foray into merchant power, we are assigning
a multiple of 2.4x
FY11E BV of Rs 62.1 to the stock and revising our
target price to Rs 149.
Technical Outlook
• The stock has formed a rounding bottom pattern on the
weekly chart. The price rise with huge volume during
last week’s trade suggests bullishness in the stock •
On the weekly chart, it has formed a bullish Engulfing
candlestick pattern and closed above the trading range
(90-109) of the last two months
• On the lower side, the stock has strong support at
Rs 102 levels from the long tern trend line joining
the low of March 6 2009 (Rs 24) and June 19 2009 (61.60)
Bharti Airtel
Valuation
We value the company using the SOTP method. Ascribing
a value of Rs 393 to the core businesses, Rs 24.2 to
Infratel and Rs 37.5 to Indus contribution, we have
arrived at a target price of Rs 455/share. Our target
price for Airtel discounts the FY10E EPS of Rs 29.2
by 15.5x implying a 38% premium to RCom and more or
ess in line with the multiple assigned to Idea.
Technical Outlook
• The stock is recently being hammered and approaches
supports around Rs 325 levels. Weekly charts continue to form higher top and higher bottoms
• The weekly trend line joining the lows of October 31
(241.50) and March 13 2009 (270.55) offer support near
Rs 325 where we expect fresh buying interest to emerge
• Despite recent declines, the weekly RSI remains above
40 levels and may support the bullish argument
Dena bank
Valuation
At the CMP of 68, the stock is trading at 0.9x FY11E ABV.
The bank is expected to report RoA of close to 1% and RoE
in the range of 17-18% in the coming two years. The asset
quality of the bank is expected to stay stable. We feel
the bank should be re-rated from current levels owing to
stable performance in the past few quarters. We,
therefore, value the stock at 1.1x FY11E ABV to arrive
at a fair value of Rs 86 for the stock.
Technical Outlook
• Dena Bank continues to form higher top and higher
bottom on the weekly chart indicating positive intermediate trend
• The stock recently broke out of a longer consolidation
pattern above Rs 60 and is forming “Inverse Head and
Shoulder” bullish pattern
• Further, 21 and 34 days exponential moving averages
(EMA) suggest continuation of an uptrend on the daily charts
Dishman Pharma
Valuation
At the CMP, Dishman is trading at 8.3x its FY10E EPS
of Rs 27 and 7.1x FY10E EV/EBITDA. The capex cycle
is almost over with Rs 100 crore being planned for
FY10E and FY11E. The China facility is expected to
go on-stream in the next two quarters. The management
is guiding 15% growth in acquired business from Solvay
in FY09-10. We expect
Dishman’s revenue and profits to grow 21% and 53%,
respectively, through FY10E. We are assigning a
target price of Rs 325 on the stock.
Technical Outlook
• The stock after consolidating in the range of
185-220 for the last three months has given a
positive breakout with a surge in volumes signalling
bullishness in the stock
• It has taken support at 196 levels, which is
the 50% retracement level of the recent rally
from 158 to 236 levels and has bounced back to form
a higher top in the daily chart
• Among oscillators, the RSI is currently at 58
levels and is in buy mode showing positive momentum
Dhampur Sugar
Valuation
At the current price of Rs 97, the stock is trading
at 9.0x its SY09E EPS of Rs 10.8 and 3.8x its SY10E
EPS of Rs 25.2. Given Dhampur’s large inventory holdings
and large quantity of raw sugar imports, we believe the
company is well set to benefit from rising sugar prices.
We value the stock at 5x its SY10E EPS of Rs 25.2 to
arrive at a target price of Rs 126.
Technical Outlook
• The stock has broken out of the bullish “Inverse
Head and Shoulder” pattern above Rs 78 levels during
early August 2009. Then it rallied up to Rs 108 and
now is consolidating for the past six weeks
• Pattern implication gives us targets of Rs 130-140
during an intermediate term
• Although prices pulling back to the breakout area
may not be ruled out, it could be seen as a buying
opportunity
GVK Power
Valuation
At the current market price of Rs 44, the stock is
trading at a P/BV of 2.2x in FY10E and 2.0x in FY11E.
We have adopted an SOTP-based methodology by valuing
each segment distinctly. Improving visibility of growth
for their projects and allaying balance sheet concerns
will help them scout for growth opportunities further.
Thus, we recommend the
stock with a price target of Rs 54.
Technical Outlook
• The stock continues to form higher top and higher
bottom on the weekly charts
• The weekly trend line joining lows of December 31 2008 (10.40)
and March 13 2009 (17.60) is likely to lend the support around Rs 40
• The weekly RSI is sustaining above the 50 mark and
supports the bullish argument
Indian Hotels Company Ltd
Valuation
We are revising our earnings estimates and valuation
multiples upwards to take in to account the improved
economic scenario and exclusion of hotel sector from
real estate classification. We value the stock
at 12x FY11 EV/EBITDA (earlier 11.5x) and raise
our target price to Rs 103 from Rs 77.
Technical Outlook
• The stock resumed a fresh up move after 18 weeks
of consolidation and seems poised for a breakout
above the Rs-80 mark
• Recent high volume activity along with positive
crossover of RSI oscillator on the weekly charts suggest fresh buying interest in the stock
• Break out above Rs 80 would complete the
bullish “Cup and Handle” pattern. Such a pattern has
a potential of throwing the stock into the higher orbit.
The stock may see substantial upsides in the coming months
JK Lakshmi Cement
Valuation
At the CMP of Rs 135, JKL is trading at 3.1x and 4.2x
its FY10E and FY11E earnings, respectively. On an EV per
tonne basis, it is trading at $48 and $45 at its FY10E
and FY11E capacities, respectively.
Technical Outlook
• The stock has formed a rounding bottom formation in
the weekly chart and taken support at the 50 days simple
moving average (SMA) that is placed at 130 during every
correction signalling the uptrend is intact
• The stock is currently trading near the high of April
2008 (Rs 130). Sustaining above this will be positive
• Among oscillators, the MACD is in buy mode and RSI is
at 50 levels indicating strength in the current uptrend
NTPC
Valuation
At the current market price of Rs 210, the stock is
trading at P/BV of 2.7x in FY10E and 2.5x in FY11E.
We believe a solid outlook to the growth of the sector
and additional capacity coming up at a faster pace will
lead to a rerating of the stock on the upside. We maintain
our price target of Rs 245 over the next 12 months.
Technical Outlook
• The stock has been trading in an upward rising channel
for the last few months and is showing signs of bullishness
• The stock is currently trading above the 200 days
simple moving average (SMA) that is at 195 levels
and can act as a strong support at every downtrend
• The MACD oscillator has given a positive crossover
near the base line that supports the positive momentum in the stock
Shiv Vani Oil & Gas
Valuation
Shiv Vani’s current order book of ~Rs 3900 crore to
be executed over the next ~2.5 years has improved
its visibility, going forward. Traction in execution
has also improved the fundamentals of the company.
Shiv-Vani has bid for tenders worth Rs ~3,000 crore
and it would consider equity dilution for capital
expansion if it bags orders for some of the above tenders.
The stock is currently trading at 5.5x FY11E EPS of Rs 61.6
and at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.1x FY11E. We have valued
Shiv-Vani at 6x FY11E EV/EBITDA with a price target Rs 456.
Technical Outlook
• The stock made a lifetime high of Rs 738 in January
2009 and then faced a sharp decline up to around Rs 100
levels where it made a good base during the early part
of 2009. The stock then resumed its upward rally along
with good volumes
• It continues to form higher top and higher bottom on
the weekly charts indicating a strong intermediate up
trend. After consolidation between Rs 330 and Rs 250
levels for about six weeks, recently it broke above
the Rs 330 mark. Pattern implication suggests fresh
targets up to Rs 450 and Rs 486
• Momentum oscillators such as 14 period RSI remain
in buy mode and support the bullish argument
South Indian Bank
Valuation
At the CMP of Rs 132, the stock is trading at
1x and 0.9x its FY10E and FY11E ABV, respectively.
We believe that with such business credential and
consistency in generating reasonable return ratios,
the stock deserves a higher investment multiple vis-à-vis
its peers. We are assigning a target of Rs 172 (1.2x FY11E ABV)
to the stock representing a
30% upside over twelve months.
Technical Outlook
• On the daily chart the stock continues its up trend, with
higher top and higher bottom formation. Also, the 50 day
simple moving average (SMA) at 118.50 continues to act as
a strong support
• The stock has taken support at Rs 108, which is the 38.2%
retracement level of the last rally from 84 to 124
• Among momentum oscillators, the RSI and stochastic has given
a positive cross over and is signalling strength and positive
momentum in the coming week
NIFTY LEVELS - BUY NIFTY 5050 SL- 5029 TARGET- 5088… IF CROSS 5088 WITH VOLUME THEN 5125-5148. …. SELL NIFTY ONLY BELOW 4980 SL- 5001 TARGET- 4950. OR SELL AROUND 5147-5148 WITH SL OF JUST 5160 . ( ALL LEVELS NIFTY SPOT LEVELS )
TRADING TIPS - BUY THERMAX ABOVE 560 SL- 549 TARGET- 585-600 ( 1-5 DAYS )
BUY HDFC BANK ABOVE 1665 SL- 1654 TARGET- 1680-1699 -1740 ( 2-5 DAYS )
BUY ONGC ABOVE 1190 SL- 1179 TARGET- 1210-1235-1250 ( 2-5 DAYS )
BUY L & T ABOVE 1688 SL- 1675 TARGET- 1710-1740 ( 1-5 DAYS )
ONTHER STRONG STOCK - TITAN , ROLTA , ADUNIK METAL , APIL .
SCRIP = LIC HOUSING FINANCE LTD. (NSE),
SCRIP CODE = LICHSGFIN,
PREVIOUS CLOSE = 840.15,
STOP LOSS = 819,
TARGET = 1001.
FOR INTRADAY MOVEMENT OF THE STOCKFILTER PLEASE Click Here!
(OR CLICK THE LINK ABOVE LIVE SENSEX WATCH.)
CHART AS ON 20-10-2009THE STOCHASTICS, RSI AND MACD SHOW A POSITIVE CROSSOVER.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT SUGGESTS THIS COUNTER GOOD FOR A SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM RANGE.
STRICTLY MAINTAIN AND FOLLOW THE STOP LOSS.
STOCKS TO WATCH:(BUY ON DIPS)
GVKPIL,
TRIVENI,
HCL TECH,
POLARIS,
APIL,
BANG O,
AURBINDO PH,
ISPAT,
RAYMOND
LIC HSG FIN,
GE SHIP,
STC INDIA,
NTPC,
DENA BANK
INTRADAY
HCL TECH BUY ABV 319 SL 305 TGT 325/SELL BLW 292 SL 297 TGT 285
R.COM BUY ABV 239 SL 233 TGT 245/SELL BLW 224 SL 228 TGT 218
Stock Watch- Xpro India Limited (Short term target - 50)
APIL SL 540 TGT 650
EKC SL 199 TGT 230
TOMM NIFTY MAY OPEN WITH -VE BIAS & MAY C SUPP NEAR 5077-5066
LVLS,MAY C SHARP UPMOVE THR
Above 5145 no short
Below 5097 no long
Sell NF Below @ 5097 and 5089 Target 5074-5027 to 4932.SSL-5136.
Main support level 5085-5061-5034
Buy NF Above @ 5120 and 5136 Target 5169-5216 to 5227.SSL-5089.
Main resistance 5151-5171-5388.
Some More Recommendation
Bartronics India Ltd: - CMP: - 169
Bartronics had a sharp rally from 53 to 192, which recovered
near about 61.80% of the fall from 294 to 47. After the sharp
rally, stock started to trade in the range of 141 to 199, which
indicates consolidation in Wave B. Bartronics is trading in a
channel wherein upper end of the channel is acting as resistances
and lower end of the channel as
support. Currently, Stock is trading near lower end of the channel
so closes below lower end of channel would indicate further weakness.
However, if it holds above Lower end of the channel, it would target
upper end of the channel.
We recommend BUY o Bartronics above 187 with a stop loss of 154 on
closing basis for the price target of 219, 241 and 273 in short term.
Birla Corporation Ltd: CMP: - 300
Birla Corp. has formed a good support at Blue Trend Line. As we
can see from above chart, stock has rallied from 70 to 326 thereafter
it has corrected till 23.60% of the rally (i.e. 265). After forming
a Double Bottom at 267 Birla Corp. has started showing some strength
. For the Short term, until Birla Corp. sustains above Blue trend
line downside looks remote.
We recommend BUY on Birla Corp. above 326 with a stop loss of 311
on closing basis for the price target of 339, 348 and 362 in near
term. For Short term or long traders use decline as an opportunity
for BUY for the price target of 386, 423 and 484.
Cairn India Ltd: - CMP: - 279
In last trading session, Cairn has given a breakout by closing
above Red Trend Line, which has proved as a strong resistance in past trading sessions. Multiple times Cairn managed to break above Red Trend line but failed. If it gives a close above Red Trend Line with huge volumes, it’ll indicate bullishness.
We recommend BUY on Cairn India with a stop loss of 252 on
closing basis for the price target of 291, 302 and 319 in near term.
Garware Offshore Services Ltd: - CMP: - 160
Recent Top (i.e. 200) is accurately marked at 61.80% of
the fall. This means stock has fall from 294 to 51 thereafter
recovering 61.80% of the fall. Thus 201 will act as major hurdle.
After forming a top at 200 Stock has developed Wave B i.e.
corrective wave wherein downside can test till 143 (38.20%)
or 126 (i.e. 50 % of the rally).
We recommend BUY on Garware offshore above 201 with a stop
loss of 164 on closing basis for the price target of 236,
258 and 292 in Short term.
ICSA (India) Ltd: - CMP: - 203
ICSA has fallen from 650 to 47. After forming a bottom at
47 ICSA recovered 28% (i.e. 216) of the fall now, which is
acting as a hurdle. As we can see from above chart, ICSA
has rallied from 47 to 215 which is marked as Wave A after
that Wave B has emerged and corrected nearby 50% of the
rally (i.e. 141). ICSA many a times crossed over Red Trend
Line but failed to give a close that proved the resistance
at Wave A top (i.e. 215) on closing basis.
We recommend to BUY ICSA India above 215 with a stop-loss
of 175 on closing basis for the target of 254, 279 and 318.
IVRCL Infrastructures & Projects Ltd: - CMP: - 412
IVRCL Infra has fallen from 627 to 57, which is 91% cut
from top. After placing a bottom at 57, IVRCL with last
trading session recovered 61.80% of the fall (i.e. 409).
As per the retracement theory, if IVRCL crosses over 409
then upside can see till 505 (i.e. 78.60%) and 564
(89% of the fall). However, IVRCL has a hurdle at
Red Trend Line crossover, which will see further upside.
We recommend BUY on IVRCL Infra on decline with a stop-loss
of 340 on closing basis for the target of 461, 492 and 564
in short term.
Jaiprakash Associates Ltd: - CMP: - 252
As we can see from above chart, JP Assoc. has a formed
a good support at Blue Trend Line and in last trading
session given a break out of by closing above Red Trend
Line with decent volume. Thus, two more closings above
Red Trend Line will see more upside till 272 to 284.
Since JP Assoc. has sustained above 219 (38.20% of fall)
it has opened an upside till 50% and 61.80% of fall.
We recommend BUY on Jaiprakash Assoc. with a stop-loss
of 239 on closing basis for the target of 265, 273 and
285 in short term. Long-term traders can see upside till
325 and 391 as long as the stock sustain above 219 on
closing basis.
Jyoti Structures Ltd: - CMP: - 154
Jyoti Structures has formed a Zig-Zag Pattern with higher
bottom. In past trading, stock has shown a good support
at Blue Trend Line. As we can see from above chart, Jyoti
structures has many times taken support at Blue Trend Line
and moved till RedTrend Line. Since Jyoti Structures is
trading near Blue trend line, upside till Red Trend Line
can be seen in coming days.
We recommend BUY in Jyoti Structures with a stop-loss of
122 on closing basis for the target of 177, 194 and 222 in short term.
Techno Electric & Engineering Company Ltd: - CMP: - 150
Techno has fallen from 370 to 51. Thereafter with recent
top i.e. 202 Techno has recovered almost 50% of fall.
So the rally from 51 to 202 is marked as wave A thereafter
stock is under Wave B wherein it has already corrected
38.20% of rally. Any further decline would take the
stock towards 50% of rally (i.e. 126). Thus, traders
should adopt wait n watch strategy.
As per the retracement theory, upside would develop
in Techno only above 211.
Voltamp Transformers Ltd: - CMP: - 814
As we can see form above chart, Voltamp is oscillating
in a channel and forming higher top and higher bottom.
With current trading pattern Voltamp has a resistance
at 846. Voltamp had fallen from 1910 to 260. Voltamp
faces a hurdle at 891 on closing basis, which is 38.20%
of fall. Thus, Voltamp closing above 891 will open up
higher levels till 1080 to 1280.
We recommend BUY on Voltamp above 846 with a stop-loss
of 808 on closing basis for the target of 881, 904
and 940 in near term. For long term trader keep an
eye above 948 on closing basis wherein above 948
will see 1110, 1211 and 1373.
GNFC
GNFC is likely to show an EPS of Rs. 19.7/Share in
FY2010. At CMP Rs. 98, it trades at 5 times forward
EPS. Given the Govt focus to output in RABI season
and demand growth in Chemicals user industries,
Investors may BUY in Rs.90-97 range for a target
of Rs.120 in mid term.
Adhunik Metaliks
Valuation
At the current price of 116, the stock is discounting
its FY11E BV by 1.9x, FY11E EV/EBITDA by 6.85x and
FY11EPS by 10.6x. We value the company on its FY10E
consolidated BV. Taking into account the stable business
outlook, high quality mining reserves and the prospects
ahead with foray into merchant power, we are assigning
a multiple of 2.4x
FY11E BV of Rs 62.1 to the stock and revising our
target price to Rs 149.
Technical Outlook
• The stock has formed a rounding bottom pattern on the
weekly chart. The price rise with huge volume during
last week’s trade suggests bullishness in the stock •
On the weekly chart, it has formed a bullish Engulfing
candlestick pattern and closed above the trading range
(90-109) of the last two months
• On the lower side, the stock has strong support at
Rs 102 levels from the long tern trend line joining
the low of March 6 2009 (Rs 24) and June 19 2009 (61.60)
Bharti Airtel
Valuation
We value the company using the SOTP method. Ascribing
a value of Rs 393 to the core businesses, Rs 24.2 to
Infratel and Rs 37.5 to Indus contribution, we have
arrived at a target price of Rs 455/share. Our target
price for Airtel discounts the FY10E EPS of Rs 29.2
by 15.5x implying a 38% premium to RCom and more or
ess in line with the multiple assigned to Idea.
Technical Outlook
• The stock is recently being hammered and approaches
supports around Rs 325 levels. Weekly charts continue to form higher top and higher bottoms
• The weekly trend line joining the lows of October 31
(241.50) and March 13 2009 (270.55) offer support near
Rs 325 where we expect fresh buying interest to emerge
• Despite recent declines, the weekly RSI remains above
40 levels and may support the bullish argument
Dena bank
Valuation
At the CMP of 68, the stock is trading at 0.9x FY11E ABV.
The bank is expected to report RoA of close to 1% and RoE
in the range of 17-18% in the coming two years. The asset
quality of the bank is expected to stay stable. We feel
the bank should be re-rated from current levels owing to
stable performance in the past few quarters. We,
therefore, value the stock at 1.1x FY11E ABV to arrive
at a fair value of Rs 86 for the stock.
Technical Outlook
• Dena Bank continues to form higher top and higher
bottom on the weekly chart indicating positive intermediate trend
• The stock recently broke out of a longer consolidation
pattern above Rs 60 and is forming “Inverse Head and
Shoulder” bullish pattern
• Further, 21 and 34 days exponential moving averages
(EMA) suggest continuation of an uptrend on the daily charts
Dishman Pharma
Valuation
At the CMP, Dishman is trading at 8.3x its FY10E EPS
of Rs 27 and 7.1x FY10E EV/EBITDA. The capex cycle
is almost over with Rs 100 crore being planned for
FY10E and FY11E. The China facility is expected to
go on-stream in the next two quarters. The management
is guiding 15% growth in acquired business from Solvay
in FY09-10. We expect
Dishman’s revenue and profits to grow 21% and 53%,
respectively, through FY10E. We are assigning a
target price of Rs 325 on the stock.
Technical Outlook
• The stock after consolidating in the range of
185-220 for the last three months has given a
positive breakout with a surge in volumes signalling
bullishness in the stock
• It has taken support at 196 levels, which is
the 50% retracement level of the recent rally
from 158 to 236 levels and has bounced back to form
a higher top in the daily chart
• Among oscillators, the RSI is currently at 58
levels and is in buy mode showing positive momentum
Dhampur Sugar
Valuation
At the current price of Rs 97, the stock is trading
at 9.0x its SY09E EPS of Rs 10.8 and 3.8x its SY10E
EPS of Rs 25.2. Given Dhampur’s large inventory holdings
and large quantity of raw sugar imports, we believe the
company is well set to benefit from rising sugar prices.
We value the stock at 5x its SY10E EPS of Rs 25.2 to
arrive at a target price of Rs 126.
Technical Outlook
• The stock has broken out of the bullish “Inverse
Head and Shoulder” pattern above Rs 78 levels during
early August 2009. Then it rallied up to Rs 108 and
now is consolidating for the past six weeks
• Pattern implication gives us targets of Rs 130-140
during an intermediate term
• Although prices pulling back to the breakout area
may not be ruled out, it could be seen as a buying
opportunity
GVK Power
Valuation
At the current market price of Rs 44, the stock is
trading at a P/BV of 2.2x in FY10E and 2.0x in FY11E.
We have adopted an SOTP-based methodology by valuing
each segment distinctly. Improving visibility of growth
for their projects and allaying balance sheet concerns
will help them scout for growth opportunities further.
Thus, we recommend the
stock with a price target of Rs 54.
Technical Outlook
• The stock continues to form higher top and higher
bottom on the weekly charts
• The weekly trend line joining lows of December 31 2008 (10.40)
and March 13 2009 (17.60) is likely to lend the support around Rs 40
• The weekly RSI is sustaining above the 50 mark and
supports the bullish argument
Indian Hotels Company Ltd
Valuation
We are revising our earnings estimates and valuation
multiples upwards to take in to account the improved
economic scenario and exclusion of hotel sector from
real estate classification. We value the stock
at 12x FY11 EV/EBITDA (earlier 11.5x) and raise
our target price to Rs 103 from Rs 77.
Technical Outlook
• The stock resumed a fresh up move after 18 weeks
of consolidation and seems poised for a breakout
above the Rs-80 mark
• Recent high volume activity along with positive
crossover of RSI oscillator on the weekly charts suggest fresh buying interest in the stock
• Break out above Rs 80 would complete the
bullish “Cup and Handle” pattern. Such a pattern has
a potential of throwing the stock into the higher orbit.
The stock may see substantial upsides in the coming months
JK Lakshmi Cement
Valuation
At the CMP of Rs 135, JKL is trading at 3.1x and 4.2x
its FY10E and FY11E earnings, respectively. On an EV per
tonne basis, it is trading at $48 and $45 at its FY10E
and FY11E capacities, respectively.
Technical Outlook
• The stock has formed a rounding bottom formation in
the weekly chart and taken support at the 50 days simple
moving average (SMA) that is placed at 130 during every
correction signalling the uptrend is intact
• The stock is currently trading near the high of April
2008 (Rs 130). Sustaining above this will be positive
• Among oscillators, the MACD is in buy mode and RSI is
at 50 levels indicating strength in the current uptrend
NTPC
Valuation
At the current market price of Rs 210, the stock is
trading at P/BV of 2.7x in FY10E and 2.5x in FY11E.
We believe a solid outlook to the growth of the sector
and additional capacity coming up at a faster pace will
lead to a rerating of the stock on the upside. We maintain
our price target of Rs 245 over the next 12 months.
Technical Outlook
• The stock has been trading in an upward rising channel
for the last few months and is showing signs of bullishness
• The stock is currently trading above the 200 days
simple moving average (SMA) that is at 195 levels
and can act as a strong support at every downtrend
• The MACD oscillator has given a positive crossover
near the base line that supports the positive momentum in the stock
Shiv Vani Oil & Gas
Valuation
Shiv Vani’s current order book of ~Rs 3900 crore to
be executed over the next ~2.5 years has improved
its visibility, going forward. Traction in execution
has also improved the fundamentals of the company.
Shiv-Vani has bid for tenders worth Rs ~3,000 crore
and it would consider equity dilution for capital
expansion if it bags orders for some of the above tenders.
The stock is currently trading at 5.5x FY11E EPS of Rs 61.6
and at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.1x FY11E. We have valued
Shiv-Vani at 6x FY11E EV/EBITDA with a price target Rs 456.
Technical Outlook
• The stock made a lifetime high of Rs 738 in January
2009 and then faced a sharp decline up to around Rs 100
levels where it made a good base during the early part
of 2009. The stock then resumed its upward rally along
with good volumes
• It continues to form higher top and higher bottom on
the weekly charts indicating a strong intermediate up
trend. After consolidation between Rs 330 and Rs 250
levels for about six weeks, recently it broke above
the Rs 330 mark. Pattern implication suggests fresh
targets up to Rs 450 and Rs 486
• Momentum oscillators such as 14 period RSI remain
in buy mode and support the bullish argument
South Indian Bank
Valuation
At the CMP of Rs 132, the stock is trading at
1x and 0.9x its FY10E and FY11E ABV, respectively.
We believe that with such business credential and
consistency in generating reasonable return ratios,
the stock deserves a higher investment multiple vis-à-vis
its peers. We are assigning a target of Rs 172 (1.2x FY11E ABV)
to the stock representing a
30% upside over twelve months.
Technical Outlook
• On the daily chart the stock continues its up trend, with
higher top and higher bottom formation. Also, the 50 day
simple moving average (SMA) at 118.50 continues to act as
a strong support
• The stock has taken support at Rs 108, which is the 38.2%
retracement level of the last rally from 84 to 124
• Among momentum oscillators, the RSI and stochastic has given
a positive cross over and is signalling strength and positive
momentum in the coming week
NIFTY LEVELS - BUY NIFTY 5050 SL- 5029 TARGET- 5088… IF CROSS 5088 WITH VOLUME THEN 5125-5148. …. SELL NIFTY ONLY BELOW 4980 SL- 5001 TARGET- 4950. OR SELL AROUND 5147-5148 WITH SL OF JUST 5160 . ( ALL LEVELS NIFTY SPOT LEVELS )
TRADING TIPS - BUY THERMAX ABOVE 560 SL- 549 TARGET- 585-600 ( 1-5 DAYS )
BUY HDFC BANK ABOVE 1665 SL- 1654 TARGET- 1680-1699 -1740 ( 2-5 DAYS )
BUY ONGC ABOVE 1190 SL- 1179 TARGET- 1210-1235-1250 ( 2-5 DAYS )
BUY L & T ABOVE 1688 SL- 1675 TARGET- 1710-1740 ( 1-5 DAYS )
ONTHER STRONG STOCK - TITAN , ROLTA , ADUNIK METAL , APIL .
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