newsletter

(Nooresh Merani)

SENSEX TECHNICAL VIEW:

In my posts some monts back had discussed about the possibility of the rising wedge being similar to the one formed in January. CLICK LINK TO CHECK IT

If the current breakout above 16500 the rising wedge line then this move should not last above 16500 for another 2 weeks as generally a false move doesnot last long above the breakout line.

So there could be a possibility the current rising wedge may not give similar results as January ( thats what my heading says last time )

In that case we need to see a re-testing of the breakout and also how it reacts around to those levels will be a factor to watchout in days to come.

As was earlier mentioned 16500/17200 was the band and Sensex has made a high of 17196 exact to the level discussed. Crossing above 17200 would take it to 17700-18000 band. Ideally a testing of 16500/16100 is possible in weeks to come.

Simple calculation at the current level gives an upside of similar size so risk-reward suggests to do nothing and watchout !!! But yes couple of weeks will clear out the weak implications if it continues to stay above 16k.

Dow Jones :

In my previous post CLICK TO CHECK LINK had mentioned below 9650 the index could open up to 9500-9200 zone. Dow Jones did see a little dip to 9400-9500 and is subsequently seeing some pullback from the 50 dema/ trendline support.

Important support now placed around the 9200 mark. Only a weekly close below that could dampen the current upmove.

Pullback from here would see resistance around 9700-9770. The index can test 9200 odd levels in coming weeks.

Stocks to watchout for :

GAIL :

Mutliple tops seen around 365-368 zone. Buy on crossover above 368 with volumes or on close above 375 for a target of 400 + in short term.

Bajaj Financial Services

The stock has seen a huge volume surge. Investors can look to take 1/3rd exposure at 290-300 levels and buy on declines to 250 with a long term view. Insurance sector and has seen a good declines from top. Will require patience.

Sterlite Inds:

Stock has support around around 738-740. Possible trade buy around 745 stop of 738 tgt 760 or sell below 737 stop of 745 tgt 720.

Adhunik Metals, Elnet Technology for high risk traders with 1-3 sessions view and stop of 4% .

MY CHART

Nifty :: A Body gap down Belt hold line bear candle with bearish Evening star pattern after single top formation….As far as stay below 5110 momentum looks weak. As per technical terms corrective up move finish only 70% in larger time frame of last Jan 2008 to Oct 2008 entire fall and that’s why we are still bearish in this expand extreme overbought up move. And now overall bullish chart structure already damage.. Be careful at higher level. On 6th Oct watch strong support 4990/4977/4957/4939 for intraday swing buying.. Our strategy for 6th Oct watch first support 4990 if market hold 4990 buy in deep (S.L 4990) Sell at high (S.L 5110).. Resistance for up move at 5026/5041/5057/5064/5087/5110.. Supports at 4990/4977/4957/4939..
(If Nifty didn’t break 5110 within two day’s then we see sharp decline up to 4810 within six working day’s)

 

  BUY INDUSTIND BANK WEEKLY 10% UPSIDE

 

Evening Star Formation

Implication of Evening Star:
The Evening Star Pattern is a bearish reversal pattern, usually occuring at the top of an uptrend. The pattern consists of three candlesticks:

* Large Bullish Candle (Day 1)
* Small Bullish or Bearish Candle (Day 2)
* Large Bearish Candle (Day 3)
The first part of an Evening Star reversal pattern is a large bullish green candle. On the first day, bulls are definitely in charge, usually new highs were made.

The second day begins with a bullish gap up. It is clear from the opening of Day 2 that bulls are in control. However, bulls do not push prices much higher. The candlestick on Day 2 is quite small and can be bullish, bearish, or neutral (i.e. Doji).

Generally speaking, a bearish candle on Day 2 is a stronger sign of an impending reversal. But it is Day 3 that is the most significant candlestick.

Day 3 begins with a gap down, (a bearish signal) and bears are able to press prices even further downward, often eliminating the gains seen on Day

If 4971.4 Breaks Targets 4939.6 4887.3

Pivot Level:5023.7

Resistance:5055.5 ,5107.8,5139.6

 

 

ss)

The much awaited correction finally comes. A break of the recent pivot low of 4908 has to be watched for any further weakness.

 

FOR DATE 6-10-2009
SCRIP = JETAIRWAYS. (BSE),
SCRIP CODE = 532617,
PREVIOUS CLOSE = 377.6,
STOP LOSS = 354,
TARGET = 448.
FOR INTRADAY MOVEMENT OF THE STOCKFILTER PLEASE Click Here!
(OR CLICK THE LINK ABOVE LIVE SENSEX WATCH.)

CHART AS ON 5-10-2009

WITH A CONSIDERABLE RISE IN VOLUMES, THE STOCK HAS GIVEN A FRESH BREAKOUT IN THE LAST TRADING SESSION. THE STOCK WAS IN CONSOLIDATION SINCE LATE SEPTEMBER.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT SUGGESTS THIS COUNTER GOOD FOR A VERY SHORT TERM RANGE.
STRICTLY MAINTAIN AND FOLLOW THE STOP LOSS.