Sensex Technical View :
Technically a new high signifies a continuation of trend. On the upside 17200 and 17700 are resistances to watchout for.
Moves above 17k do seem a little stretched and speculative in nature although it can even go to 17.7k-18k in a very optimistic scenario for extreme near term. But at this point of time the upsides do seem to be capped and not a great place to go for longs as risk-reward is no more favorable.
Market Observations and Thoughts :
OPTIMISM , SPECULATION, QUICK MONEY , BUY long term , 6k on Nifty, NEW HIGHS nOW , INVEST soon etc etc and many such words to describe the current mood of investors/traders.
The market sentiment has not been so bullish since Jan 2008. At the same time in Feb/March 09 or even in May 09 the sentiment was still very cautious with people asking for Nifty puts/Shorts etc as hedge to portfolio or should i sell of everything !!!!
And now at 17k i get more requests for Long term investments!! whereas at 9k people asked shud i sell all and re-enter at 6k :P .....................Nothing wrong with it this is how the market is.
The simpler view now is remain hedged/increase cash if you are a medium term investor. Yes the index may go to 18k also in near term but discipline is what one should keep forever.
Had u been disciplined last year then u would have digested the pessimism in October-March 09 and if you are disciplined now you should not have problem seeing the excessive Optimism Now :)
By all means i do remain a very strong believer of the BIG BULL market in India but in short term i would like to just sit n watch more :) .... This is the best time to review personal portfolio/life and learn more !!
The current upmove has been purely on the back of banking stocks like ICICI AXIS and SBI.
Although another 5-10% is possible in them but they do look a little stretched for now.
On the other hand other heavies are on a crucial stage of whether they will be able to break the range made in last few months or crumble below support levels. So we need to wait and watch till the index heavies decide and give a clear indication.
So just for the reference posting the charts with important levels !!!
Nifty :: Body gap up bullish candle with volume.. One by one Nifty break all strong resistance and close above 5070..As per our wave count Nifty enter in last zone of Ending Diagonal 4950 to 5150 level, with last leg C extreme target ..Be careful at higher level and use strictly stop loss in intraday buying.. Sensex PE enter in extreme zone at 22.19...As per Elliott wave we count too many type of bullish count and all first target meet in between 5154 to 5193.. Still mid term momentum up and for mid term investor buying stop loss remain same as yesterday 4900.. (Short term aggressive trader S.L hit today at breakout of 5036) .. Our strategy for 1st Oct. If Nifty open gap up above 5100 sell at high (S.L 5160) buy in deep (S.L 5050).. If open down watch support 5050/5003 and buy in deep (S.L 5003) Sell at high.. Resistance for up move 5108/5121/5140/5160.. Supports at 5050/5013/5003/4960/4900..
3iinfotech
Holding 250 shares @ Rs 88.5. Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 83.25
Holding 250 shares @ Rs 88.5. Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 83.25
6 mnth tgt- 135, 1 yr tgt- 172
You should plan to exit the scrip with no profit no loss. You should re- enter the scrip at 70 and keep accumulating till level of 60.
Alembic Ltd
Holding 250 shares @ Rs 49 . Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 52.3
6 mnth tgt- 72, 1 yr tgt- 100
Alembic can run up to 65 so keep holding till at least 62. Exit there and be ready to pick up the scrip again between 45 and 50. You can than look forward to sell your holdings at one year's target of 100.
Apollo Tyres
Holding 100 shares @ Rs 39.5 . Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 46.2
6 mnth tgt- 55, 1 yr tgt- 85
Book your profit in Apollo Tyres at current market price. Wait for correction and buy it again at 30 level for 1 year's target.
Crompton Greaves
Holding 15 shares @ Rs 300. Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 311.7
6 mnth tgt- 440, 1 yr tgt- 560
Play safe and exit your position from Crompton Greaves at current market price. Close below 300 will be disastrous for the scrip. It can find support at 260 level but at that point if market shows consistent weakness it may even revisit 180 level. So its better not to take any chance since you are still not in loss by exiting at CMP. You can start buying from 220 till 180 and then hold the scrip for one year's target of 560.
Ess Dee Aluminium
Holding 60 shares @ Rs 359 . Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 352.8
6 mnth tgt-550 , 1 yr tgt- 700
Ess Dee Aluminium can touch 385 in current run-up or even higher. But on the flip side it may even drop down to 250 during market correction. But if you are not hard pressed for capital then you can cling on to it for one year's target of 700.
Exide Industries
Holding 100 shares @ Rs 88.5 . Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 89.9
1 yr tgt- 160
You should consider off loading this scrip at current market price. You may like to pick it up again at level of 65 for its one year target of 160.
KSK Energy Ventures
Holding 100 shares @ Rs 210. Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 203.4
Frankly speaking there can be explosive move either way in this stock. Below 195 it can tumble to a zone between 110 to 140. Above 210 it can race to 280. Since the probability to move southwards is more, exiting the stock at CMP will be more prudent play.
Mahindra Lifespace
Holding 50 shares @ Rs 373 . Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 385.1
6 mnth tgt- 500, 1 yr tgt- 650, 2 yr tgt- 900
Mahindra Lifespace can move up to 400 but you may be better off to exit the scrip while still in green. You will then have the option to re- enter at 225/250.
Nava Bharat Venture
Holding 15 shares @ Rs 433 . Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 380.7
1 yr tgt- 850
Though Nava Bharat Venture can correct a great deal, but in my opinion you should keep holding the scrip and plan to double your holding at 260/280. Then you can profitably exit your complete position at one year's target of 850.
NHPC
Holding 785 shares @ Rs 36 . Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 34.6
1 yr tgt- 42
NHPC can fall down to 22. Keep accumulating from the level of 30 right up to 22. By averaging so you can plan to exit from the scrip in one year's time with a decent profit.
Noida Toll
Holding 300 shares @ Rs 44.3 . Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 41.9
6 mnth tgt- 60, 1 yr tgt- 85
Noida Toll should correct from here up to 32. Double your position at around 32 level and hold for one year til the target of 85 is achieved.
Praj Industries
Holding 150 shares @ Rs 107 . Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 102.1
1 yr tgt- 180
Praj Industries can witness serious selling below 96 which may take it all the way down to the zone between 60 and 70. Plan to accumulate the scrip at that level and book profit at its one year target of 180, which may even stretch up to 200.
Tinplate
Holding 200 shares @ Rs 69 . Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 55.25
1 yr tgt- 145
Keep picking up the scrip from 50 right up to 45 , and just in case it falls further down to 40 do add some more to your portfolio. You can then plan to sell your complete holding at one year's target of 145.
1. Sujana Towers breaks out and clears the buy point of 41.60 on higher than average volume
2. An opportunity is still available to open a long position as the stock closed just 1% above the buy point yesterday
Also check out previous technical analysis for Sujana Towers posted on Thursday, May 28, 2009: Sujana Towers Clears Major Resistance Zone
2. An opportunity is still available to open a long position as the stock closed just 1% above the buy point yesterday
Sujana Towers - 30/09/2009 Daily Chart
Also check out previous technical analysis for Sujana Towers posted on Thursday, May 28, 2009: Sujana Towers Clears Major Resistance Zone
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