See the Power of Astrological calculation we will see fall in Indian Stock Market. Indian Stock Market will be more volatile between 20nd October 2009 and 23rd October 2009, exit all long position.
About The CompanyA part of the Dempo group, it is one of the leading manufacturers of calcined petroleum coke (CPC) in India. The company has a capacity to produce 2,40,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) of calcined petroleum coke, which is next only to Rain Commodity’s annual production capacity of around 6,00,000 tpa. The company supplies raw petroleum coke to Indian Oil Corporation, Baruni and Bangaigaon Refinery and Petrochemicals. The plants of the company situated at Goa, Bilaspur and Paradeep. It exports to Australia, Egypt, Dubai, France, Kuwait, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, South Africa, Russia, Wales and England.
The company has promoted a wholly owned subsidiary outside India to invest in a JV in China to manufacture CPC. The Board has also approved raising Rs.100 crore through a right issue for funding its China project, working capital & general corporate purposes.
The company, once again posts losses. Lower off take, both in the domestic and export markets, like in the previous quarter, has kept the company in the red. The company has had a very volatile time, oscillating between losses and profits. The company has been making losses since Q4FY09 and then into Q1FY10 and now in Q2FY10. Being dependent to a large extent on exports and given the overall slowdown, lack/postponement of orders is what has ailed the company.
For Q1FY10, net sales on a QoQ was up 58% at Rs.74.84 crore. It ended with a net loss of Rs.5.11 crore, as against a net loss of Rs.4.82 crore but better than the loss of Rs.7.05 crore in Q4FY09.
The company was unable to pass on the burden of increased costs to the customers as many postponed delivery. The costs have gone up due to imported raw materials and exchange rate fluctuations. Realisations were down. Also due to reduction of viable export & domestic orders, the plants were shut down during the quarter, where Goa plant was shut for 49 days and Bilaspur plant was closed for 10 days.
SATYAM COMPUTER closed up 0.300 at 107.850. Volume was 70% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 35% narrower than normal.
Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
- We would only look for a signal to sell.
- The momentum is downward.
- The downward momentum is slowing.
- This is an area to be cautious. If you are short, consider protecting your profits.
Many times users have asked me if they can buy SATYAM COMPUTERS and I have always refrained from making any comment. Our trading system gave a sell signal on the stock at 373.00 after which the stock moved down to 6.30. The stock has now given a buy signal for the mid-term at 108. Use any downside to buy the stock with a target of 130 > 180 > 270. We are not giving any stopLoss so do not take over-leaveraged position.
IRB, HDIL, LICHOUSING, MPHASIS, HEROHONDA, MARUTI, ICICIBANK, AXISBANK, IDBI, COL-PAL, BEML, BEL, CUMMINS, RECL, EXIDE, IDFC, LT and the list still big which has given excellent returns only in 2009( Investor in ANANDRATHI, Followers of Tamil Magazine NANAYA-VIKUDEN would remember) , with IGL/GDL/DHANBANK/SKUMAR/KALINDEE and TATACOMM pending list made public for 2year to buy in correction.
When you buy a stock an investor should know
· Why he brought the stock?
· Management and business profile of the Company
· Face value of the stock, public holding and institution holding in the stock.
· What is the growth prospect in next 3-5 years and demand and supply?
· What advantage in price, quality or any other criteria this company will have compared with peers.
· Entry level barrier and how much competition can come.
Many want to buy multi-bagger which I never believed in, as out of 100stock 4-5stocks have become multi-bagger and normally investor have failed to hold these stock as good profit would make them book profit and general mind set is to hold stock which are in loss.
Global interest rates are @ lowest levels so any investor investing from abroad would be looking to get something around 10% per annum and whenever Rupee appreciate they get double bonanza already they are 13% in the money in currency itself from the peak.
Indian investor from here on should understand Sensex which is 17000 can’t double in next year to make 34000 so never have high expectation Nifty P/E=22.80 and Sensex P/E=22.08 while BSE500 P/E=22.21 which is on a higher side. Earnings season has started results are coming as per analyst expectation in large Cap with no major surprise but Mid & Small Cap stocks performance has thrown many negative surprise.
Index to sustain higher level needs profit growth of more than 20% excluding other income so investor should stay with good growth stock for long term than to buy hear say or Market tipped stock.
Leading Indian brokerages have forecast that net profits for the Sensex companies would shrink or at best stay flat this September quarter, compared to the same period last year. The most optimistic of them expect total profits for the Sensex basket to inch up one per cent; the most pessimistic expect a 16.5% profit fall. http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2009/10/12/stories/2009101251700100.htm
Till now I haven’t given Buy on RNRL, R-POWER, UNITECH, EDUCOMP, EVERONN, EDSERVE, ISPATIND, ASHOKLEYLAND and this list is also big and there can be many reason attributed to that.
Many would ask why I didn’t recommend RNRL.
RNRL doesn’t have a business as of now and if even Supreme Court adjustment comes in their favor also the stock is fully priced for that.
Few businesses I never understand and educational software is one such business so I never recommend business which I don’t understand and Entry level barrier is very low so many would soon compete in this business if margin are high and capital cost is low.
Go for a business that any idiot can run - because sooner or later, any idiot probably is going to run it. ---- Peter Lynch
When all are greedy be fearful and when everyone is fearful be greedy. I wouldn't worry if stock markets are closed for few years I buy business not stocks. Mr. Market is a maniac sometimes it gives exorbitant valuation for my business that time I sell, I get business valuation at attractive prices where I would like to own, I buy. When the tide goes is when you will know who were swimming naked. Someone’s sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago.—Quotes of Warren buffet.
Warren Buffet in one of the interview said: there were 4000 companies manufacturing car in U.S, today hardly 3 and all 3 are finding it hard to survive, and many companies produced Television including GE now none
Quote: In Stock market there is never clarity, Media or someone won’t tell you this is the best time to buy, and at peak market looks attractive at bottom market looks to panic always take informed decision.
Now they hold Market?
http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINIndia-43089120091012 Ambani brothers truce seen unlikely; hurdles remain
http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/govt-audit-finds-rcom%5Cs-evasionlicense-fee-likely-revenue-inflation/75761/on A government appointed auditor is understood to have found inflation of revenues by Rs 2,915 crores by Anil Ambani group firm Reliance Communications in 2007-08, besides evasion of Rs 315 crore in licence fee — findings termed as "biased" by the company.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a5fad458-b759-11de-9812-00144feab49a.html?nclick_check=1
The search for oil in India started more than 150 years ago in Assam in the year 1866. As I recollect from my text books, the first discovery was made in Digboi in the year 1889. From then and until 1960s, Oil production in India was restricted to only Assam and Gujarat and this was the first phase in E & P space in India.The formation of ONGC in 1956 defined the second phase of the oil exploration industry in India. ONGC hit jacpot when the discovery at Mumbai High was made in around 1974. Until 1990’s the exploration and production of oil in India was confined only to Public sector units and that was almost the end of the second phase. The third and the current phase started in India with the introduction of NELP – National Exploration Licensing Policy in the year 1997.
NELP as the policy is known was instrumental in providing a level playing field for public and private sector companies. It also encouraged foreign entities to take part in the auction and to invest in the oil and gas blocks in India. The policy was quite successful and it served as a catalyst in oil and gas exploration space in India marking the third phase. However, the current auction – NELP 8 is marking a start contrast to happenings before and a new phase either positive or negative could start from here.
NELP 8 witnessed a total of 76 bids being thrown for just 36 blocks out of the 70 blocks that were on offer. It was 45 blocks for which the bids were received last time out of a total of 57 blocks that were on offer. NELP 7 was not a success but at the same time, it was not a disaster like the NELP 8. RIL abstained from bidding for the 70 blocks on offer while companies like BHP Billion, Cairn Energy and ONGC were the notable entities which participated in the auction.
Out of the 10 coal bed methande blocks on offer, only 8 of them received bids. RIL had placed its bid for just one block. Of the 24 deep water blocks that were placed on offer, only 8 received bids. 13 shallow water blocks received bids while 10 small onland block got 37 bids and 5 bigger onland blocks got 10 bods.
There is no clear reason that can be singled out which would say why the response has been poor. However, some of the reasons may include the reduction in incentives that the E and P companies were entitled to and the minimmum alternate tax and service tax that were imposed after NELP 7. The other reason could be lack of clear policy directives with respect to the 7 year tax holidays. One day, govt says that the tax holiday is only for Crude blocks and the next day it says it can be extended to Gas blocks as well and still the next day it would say the tax holidays are cancelled.
However today, no big impact was witnessed on the Exploration & Production based companies. Most of the companies like HOEC, Aban Offshore, Great Offshore managed to end in Green.
SCRIP = NILKAMAL LIMITED. (NSE),
SCRIP CODE = NILKAMAL,
PREVIOUS CLOSE = 152.65,
STOP LOSS = 144,
TARGET = 200.
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CHART AS ON 12-10-2009THE STOCHASTICS AND RSI SHOW A POSITIVE CROSSOVER.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT SUGGEST THIS STOCK GOOD FOR A SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM RANGE.
STRICTLY MAINTAIN AND FOLLOW THE STOP LOSS.
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