Impulsive Wave Pattern
| Wave Name | Construction | Termination |
| Wave 1 | 5175 | 5194.02 |
| Wave 2 | 5194.02 | 5182.26 |
| Wave 3 | 5182.26 | 5206.46 |
| Wave 4 | 5206.46 | 5191.51 |
| Wave 5 | 5191.51 | 5222.29 |
Corrective Wave Pattern
| Wave Name | Construction | Termination |
| Wave -A | 5224.8 | 5194.02 |
| Wave- B | 5194.02 | 5213.04 |
| Wave- C | 5213.04 | 5188.85 |
Current Price is In the Corrective Cycle.Currective cycle will Fail if price rise to 5199.9
Selling is Advisable at 5213.04 with stoploss 5224.8 for Target 5188.85
Nifty :: Mix bias, High Wave Bullish Inverted Hammer with Bearish Shooting Star Three Gaps up bear candle pattern.. Volume is quite low compare to last two day’s.. Even after breakout Nifty unable to move up sharply.. Be careful at higher level… For 30th Dec. watch strong resistance zone 5215 to 5231 for shorting. Today’s low 5175 works as important level for 30th Dec....Below 5175 momentum slightly turns bearish for intraday. Our strategy for 30th Dec. if Nifty break 5175 after open, sell at high (S.L 5231) buy in deep, if hold support 5175 change strategy as buy in deep (S.L 5175) sell at high. As far as Nifty hold support 5119 nothing to worry for bulls... Resistance for up move at 5215/5222/5231/5244/5292.. Supports at 5175/5161/5152/5124/5119..
Freinds,
I am trying to give my view on what one should do now at sensex 17k....
My thinking maybe totally wrong and there can be big difference in what I will write or what people will think, including my readers as well as experts........I am no match to those experts as I am not in contact of what FII's thinks or what DII's thinks or what HNI's think or for that matter what Fund manager thinks be it Indian for Foriegn.....So those who find views different then me should opt for what they think is correct.There is no bounding from me.It is yours money and you should know what needs to be done.....
I sometimes also feels that as one of the reader wrote me recently that majority of my picks which I gave in 2008 , the prices are way down from there.So have I am good enough to write at my blog?Well, it is ofcourse my blog and I can write whatever I think, but the question arises is if my picks do not do well then whether it is worth writing here......
He also ask me that he wants to learn from me how I pick up the stock.But I ask him, if I am not able to give proper picks , which are laggards and gives negative returns then why he should try to learn my way of picking stock......
He also once asked me that isn't it so that as market is running ,hence my picks are also doing good?Now when that is the case then where is the need to follow my blog?
He ask me if Luck is playing that much important role then why this boasting?Yes, I agree, that Luck plays important role but then in that case one needs to close the eye and put a fingure on any stock quote in ET or any business paper and buy it and if you have LUCK, you are always going to get great returns from that stock.......It is that simple....
He also tells me that I was never pessimist in whole 2008.Well, who was?Rakesh Jhunjhunwala
has said in an interview that he never thought that market will break 16k.We never saw him selling stocks in 2008.Did we?What that says?Did we saw Warren Buffet selling stocks in 2008?
Market broke 16k and even went down by 50% from there at 8k .......but RJ holding was still there.....
I have been adviced that the rule has changed.One need to sell fast and buy fast.Means take 10-20% profit and move to other stock.But according to me the rules has not changed.People holding stocks for LT has been rewarded by the market immensly and that has been proved again except the stock is proper.....
Now coming back to what one should do.........at 17,000 sensex....
Well, one should go ahead and BUY stocks if one sees value ......that is the most important thing one should understand......
As one of the reader pasted me an article of Dalal Street journal magazine ,in which it was written that many are still sceptic about the market and there are pockets who are waiting for correction.....
Value ,one will always find anytime.Was Burlington North cheap when Buffet decided to buy at 20-30% premium of market price?It was already $70-$73 and Buffet bougt at 20-25% premium....No one was ever able to see that before Buffet?Where were Marc Faber,Jim Rogers and likes ......or is it so that Buffet decision is wrong?He overly paid for Burlington North?Was Buffet thinking was wrong?
What one can see as a mistake can become a very great investment in future...I am sure many people were thinking that investment in HOEC was a blunder that RJ made but see where it is now and if one will see the latest annoucement , HOEC has all the ingrediants to go for 4 figure mark.
What is important in market is what one is able to read in future of any Co.Looking at present performance on earnings, one will say it is fully priced or overly priced but I can say that HOEC has the ability to touch 1000-1200 in due course time....I can read it from the news that are coming from HOEC .
HOEC remained dorment for almost 5 yrs and never ran in the last bull run.Instead it went on increasing capital through right issue, I think the right issue came twice......now what that will lead to.....Co is doing nothing and spending money and increasing the Eq.....and now see, before market makes new HIGH, HOEC is making new HIGHS......Analyst will always says that HOEC is overpriced.....Aree ,HOEC to kain lavato hase?Ema shun che......and those who didn't buy missed a multibagger.....
So the thing is , how you can FORESEE......how you can judge what is coming up.....that is the bottomline.....
So according to some experts if Bull market is when sensex crosses 21k...then we have a very long way to go and if one is thinking that India can grow much higher then this then one should stay invested as the peak has not come yet.
The euphoria is still not there.My way to seeing the euphoria will be when we will again see the column of 52 week high in ET becoming bigger and bigger....that has not yet comein.....I have seen some experts saying that all stocks has started running, cats and dogs ,and hence time to be catious, then I don't believe them as not all cats and dogs are running, Only those who have some story brewing up are running...At 17k, we are just 4k behind at all time high of sensex and hence cash gr stock has to matchup with it....this is not euphoria...there are many who are sitting in sidelines waiting for more correction....waiting for 13k or 12k.....as once Shankar Sharma categorically said that he sees 12k first before 21k comes......Untill those sitting on sidelines waiting for correction becomes desperate and start investing, thinking that they will now definately miss the bus...as market never gives the price at the rate you wants to enter and untill market gives that chance , it is not euphoria.....stocks that goes up is still coming back to give chance to buy at lower rate...the day the previous price stops coming back...market will starts its journey towards peaking out....
I am trying to give my view on what one should do now at sensex 17k....
My thinking maybe totally wrong and there can be big difference in what I will write or what people will think, including my readers as well as experts........I am no match to those experts as I am not in contact of what FII's thinks or what DII's thinks or what HNI's think or for that matter what Fund manager thinks be it Indian for Foriegn.....So those who find views different then me should opt for what they think is correct.There is no bounding from me.It is yours money and you should know what needs to be done.....
I sometimes also feels that as one of the reader wrote me recently that majority of my picks which I gave in 2008 , the prices are way down from there.So have I am good enough to write at my blog?Well, it is ofcourse my blog and I can write whatever I think, but the question arises is if my picks do not do well then whether it is worth writing here......
He also ask me that he wants to learn from me how I pick up the stock.But I ask him, if I am not able to give proper picks , which are laggards and gives negative returns then why he should try to learn my way of picking stock......
He also once asked me that isn't it so that as market is running ,hence my picks are also doing good?Now when that is the case then where is the need to follow my blog?
He ask me if Luck is playing that much important role then why this boasting?Yes, I agree, that Luck plays important role but then in that case one needs to close the eye and put a fingure on any stock quote in ET or any business paper and buy it and if you have LUCK, you are always going to get great returns from that stock.......It is that simple....
He also tells me that I was never pessimist in whole 2008.Well, who was?Rakesh Jhunjhunwala
has said in an interview that he never thought that market will break 16k.We never saw him selling stocks in 2008.Did we?What that says?Did we saw Warren Buffet selling stocks in 2008?
Market broke 16k and even went down by 50% from there at 8k .......but RJ holding was still there.....
I have been adviced that the rule has changed.One need to sell fast and buy fast.Means take 10-20% profit and move to other stock.But according to me the rules has not changed.People holding stocks for LT has been rewarded by the market immensly and that has been proved again except the stock is proper.....
Now coming back to what one should do.........at 17,000 sensex....
Well, one should go ahead and BUY stocks if one sees value ......that is the most important thing one should understand......
As one of the reader pasted me an article of Dalal Street journal magazine ,in which it was written that many are still sceptic about the market and there are pockets who are waiting for correction.....
Value ,one will always find anytime.Was Burlington North cheap when Buffet decided to buy at 20-30% premium of market price?It was already $70-$73 and Buffet bougt at 20-25% premium....No one was ever able to see that before Buffet?Where were Marc Faber,Jim Rogers and likes ......or is it so that Buffet decision is wrong?He overly paid for Burlington North?Was Buffet thinking was wrong?
What one can see as a mistake can become a very great investment in future...I am sure many people were thinking that investment in HOEC was a blunder that RJ made but see where it is now and if one will see the latest annoucement , HOEC has all the ingrediants to go for 4 figure mark.
What is important in market is what one is able to read in future of any Co.Looking at present performance on earnings, one will say it is fully priced or overly priced but I can say that HOEC has the ability to touch 1000-1200 in due course time....I can read it from the news that are coming from HOEC .
HOEC remained dorment for almost 5 yrs and never ran in the last bull run.Instead it went on increasing capital through right issue, I think the right issue came twice......now what that will lead to.....Co is doing nothing and spending money and increasing the Eq.....and now see, before market makes new HIGH, HOEC is making new HIGHS......Analyst will always says that HOEC is overpriced.....Aree ,HOEC to kain lavato hase?Ema shun che......and those who didn't buy missed a multibagger.....
So the thing is , how you can FORESEE......how you can judge what is coming up.....that is the bottomline.....
So according to some experts if Bull market is when sensex crosses 21k...then we have a very long way to go and if one is thinking that India can grow much higher then this then one should stay invested as the peak has not come yet.
The euphoria is still not there.My way to seeing the euphoria will be when we will again see the column of 52 week high in ET becoming bigger and bigger....that has not yet comein.....I have seen some experts saying that all stocks has started running, cats and dogs ,and hence time to be catious, then I don't believe them as not all cats and dogs are running, Only those who have some story brewing up are running...At 17k, we are just 4k behind at all time high of sensex and hence cash gr stock has to matchup with it....this is not euphoria...there are many who are sitting in sidelines waiting for more correction....waiting for 13k or 12k.....as once Shankar Sharma categorically said that he sees 12k first before 21k comes......Untill those sitting on sidelines waiting for correction becomes desperate and start investing, thinking that they will now definately miss the bus...as market never gives the price at the rate you wants to enter and untill market gives that chance , it is not euphoria.....stocks that goes up is still coming back to give chance to buy at lower rate...the day the previous price stops coming back...market will starts its journey towards peaking out....
Page industries is an Indian Textile manufacturer with a strong presence in the undergarment segment. The company is the only Indian licensee of the US based leisure and innerwear brand – Jockey. It has become a common scene where a customer asks for a Jockey, instead of some briefs. The brand has such a strong recall especially among the college going and professionals. The company has a strong presence in underwear segment for both men and women and in a medium to premium pricing range.
Though there is a risk that the company is dependent on a single brand only, there seems to be a good rapport. Jockey International Inc had selected the company as the best International Licensee of the Year 2009. The company has also secured a license to manufacture and market the brand line in countries like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal. However, the exports have not taken off in a big yet, though it is likely that they will get better at it. The company is an integrated player and has facilities to produce yarn, fabric production and to convert fabric into garments. The company has been constantly upgrading its capacity from 56 million pieces to 74 million in FY 09.
The key positives with the product offerings other than the strong brand recall is that they offer them on several price points and across categories like inner wear, leisure wear, sportswear and thermal wear for both men and women. The company has a strong footing in both premium and medium segment. Women’s inner wear current contribute to about 16% in revenues while the leisure wear contribute for around 18%. However, with the growing number of entry level professionals among the women, the women segment has a lot of potential.
The company other than having its own exclusive stores, sells them through tie ups with various retailers like Lifestyle and Shoppers’ stop. Currently, the company boasts of around 50 exclusive outlets, while having a target of 100 store in another 2 years. Other than the exclusive outlets, the products of the company are sold in around 16,200 retail outlets. The company has managed a strong and constant growth rates over the years and this can be attributed to the reason that the products are non discretionary. However, there is always a possibility that a customer will downgrade his brand in times of difficulty.
Ones looking for a stable business with a robust and steady growth rates can invest in this counter. Btw, the company is a strong dividend payer. The company has paid out 120% and 140% on the face value as dividends in the last 2 financial years.
Though there is a risk that the company is dependent on a single brand only, there seems to be a good rapport. Jockey International Inc had selected the company as the best International Licensee of the Year 2009. The company has also secured a license to manufacture and market the brand line in countries like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal. However, the exports have not taken off in a big yet, though it is likely that they will get better at it. The company is an integrated player and has facilities to produce yarn, fabric production and to convert fabric into garments. The company has been constantly upgrading its capacity from 56 million pieces to 74 million in FY 09.
The key positives with the product offerings other than the strong brand recall is that they offer them on several price points and across categories like inner wear, leisure wear, sportswear and thermal wear for both men and women. The company has a strong footing in both premium and medium segment. Women’s inner wear current contribute to about 16% in revenues while the leisure wear contribute for around 18%. However, with the growing number of entry level professionals among the women, the women segment has a lot of potential.
The company other than having its own exclusive stores, sells them through tie ups with various retailers like Lifestyle and Shoppers’ stop. Currently, the company boasts of around 50 exclusive outlets, while having a target of 100 store in another 2 years. Other than the exclusive outlets, the products of the company are sold in around 16,200 retail outlets. The company has managed a strong and constant growth rates over the years and this can be attributed to the reason that the products are non discretionary. However, there is always a possibility that a customer will downgrade his brand in times of difficulty.
Ones looking for a stable business with a robust and steady growth rates can invest in this counter. Btw, the company is a strong dividend payer. The company has paid out 120% and 140% on the face value as dividends in the last 2 financial years.
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