newsletter

(Nooresh Merani)

In the last few interactions in various seminars/exhibitions and meetings with people have been recommending few stocks which may not have been discussed on the blog in similar manner.

Mumbai Seminar 1: FSL at 27/31 did 38 , Hind Oil Exp 200 to 400.

Ahmedabad Seminar : IDBI at 105 did 135 , Prakash Inds 140 did 170.

Pune Seminar : Mahindra Ugine , Rishi Laser , Satyam gave good moves

Mumbai Exhibition : Prakash Inds 152 to 180 , Core Projects 170 and still on.

Mumbai Seminar 2 : Prakash Inds , Rishi Laser , Core Projects , Clutch Auto

So now i would like to list out the detailed analysis on why we are so bullish on the above stocks with technical and fundamental reasons.

Core Projects :

Already recommended at 173-175 previously and maintain the short term technical call on the stock. The stock can outperform also in the months to come.
RISHI LASER :

With a market-cap of 35 crores and presence in the industry with various installations all over India seems and interesting turnaround story.

Already recommended to clients at 40 with a detailed report.

PRAKASH INDS :

PRAKASH Industries, think steel, power, mining, ferro alloys, pvc pipes & wind energy!! Its financials are good enough and are still set to grow exponentially in next few years to come. Prakash industries is a next mini Jindal Steel & Power in the making.

Have been initiating short term trades ever since 110/135/154. Last had sent a sms to all Blog readers who registered at 154. Also Clutch Auto was messaged with booking on prakash Inds at 170-180.

Technically one can expect a tgt of 195/220 in next 1-3 months.

CLUTCH AUTO :

A company in the business for 3-4 decades with major sales towards commercial vehicles in the domestic segment.

At a market cap of 70 crores and a book value of 86 it gives a good amount of safety over the long term.

Technical views posted on the chart. Buy on current levels and declines till 40. A sustained closing above 48 could take the stock to higher targets in quick time.

(Nooresh Merani)

SENSEX TECHNICAL VIEW :

Things to note :

--- > Multiple Tops were seen around 17300-17350. It also seems a like a rounding top but its too small a period to confirm it.

--- > In the near term we had lots of bottoms around 16500-16600 zone in the last few months.

--- > The new momentum trendline from March Bottoms has been broken. One important thing to note is we have seen minor breakdowns ever since March to trap shorts. So we will not make any quick conclusions here !!!!

--- > The shorter term trendline comes to around 16300 levels.

--- > The recent bottom around Dubai fiasco was at 16200. So simply put an extreme short term trend change happens only on sustained closing below 16200.

-- > Volumes have been very low as well as price magnitude also is small. This indicates lots of indecision on the index.

-- > 50%/61% retracement of last moves come at 16300/16150 roughly.

-- > BSE Midcap and BSE Small cap Index have not broken the lows of the last few days. This indicates the selling is more towards the index and broader market is making their own moves.

-- > Many other sectoral indices have not given a crack.

CONCLUSIONS :

-- > There remains a disconnect in the moves on the index and broader market. So one should not consider the index as a criteria for stock selection.

--- > In the near term strong supports at 16600-16500 and 16200-16300 range.

-- > Short term outlook becomes weak only sustaining below 16200.

-- > Major trend decider is 14700 for the medium to long term outlook

-- > There is still lot more to come in the broader markets --- Click here to read the pos WHY

MY CHART

Nifty :: Body gap down bear candle with low volume.. As per yesterday post Nifty break and important support 4965 and close below 4978.. After multiple top 2^nd conformation of bearish chart structure.. Now any up move gives selling opportunity at higher level with stop loss 5129 (maximum S.L 5182)… For 22^nd Dec watch support 4935/4910, due to short term oversold indicator may be bounce possible within one or two day’s.. And that’s why our strategy for 22^nd Dec. buy in deep (S.L 4910) sell at high (S.L 5091).. Resistance for up move at 4978/4996/5008/5043/5060/5091.. Supports at 4935/4910/ 4900/ 4880..

 Bluechips 4 U)

LARSEN & TOUBRO --- Motilal Oswal

L&T’s order intake during YTD FY10 has been disappointing in most business segments. The power equipment segment, which has witnessed strong traction (expect ~30% contribution to overall order intake in FY10), is an exception. However, as power equipment projects entail long gestation and L&T recognizes margins only on achievement of 25% project completion, we expect initial margins on these projects to be accounted only from FY13. The increased order intake in FY10 is unlikely to result in higher revenues and margin recognition in FY11/FY12.

ORCHID CHEMICALS --- Angel Broking

Orchid Chemicals has sold its high-Margin generic injectable business to Hospira for US $400mn

(Rs1,840cr). The company proposes to utilize the proceeds thereof to lower its burgeoning debt by Rs1,400cr and retain the balance for future acquisitions. However, in its pursuit to reduce its debt burden, the company has sold off its only growth engine and is now left with the plain vanilla low-Margin API and oral dosage Formulation business. The loss on the Earnings front is unlikely to be compensated from the savings on the Interest cost front.

INDIAN FINANCIALS --- IDFC

RBI sounding distinctly hawkish as policy sance shifts from accommodative to neutral. We

believe the best is behind; PSU bank performance inversly correlated to G-sec yields. Under performance evident during busy seasons (typically Jan-Apr).

WEALTH CREATORS --- Motilal Oswal

Wealth creating companies tend to initially trade ata discount to market valuation. With superior earnings growth over time, they get re-rated and endup at a premium to market valuation, leading to out performance.

KEY SURPRISES --- Morgan Stanley

The key debate is whether the tight correlations between Indian equity returns and the rest of the world could break down in 2010 and whether this could lead to a significant correction in Indian equities. The prevailing consensus view on the debate is that, if correlations no longer hold, this would be negative for Indian equities.

 

Market Outlook: Indian markets may open flat to positive opening today on account of mixed global cues. Nifty has supports at 4930-4950 and resistances are at 5050-5070.

Global events to watch for today:

• No major events to eye
• 4-Week Bill Announcement
• 3-Month Bill Auction
• 6-Month Bill Auction

Global indices Update @ 9:

Dow Jones : 10328 (+20.63)

Nasdaq : 2211 (+31.64)

Nikkei 225 : 10205 (+63.09)

Hang seng : 21073 (-102.69)

SGX CNX Nifty : 4988 (+4.50)

INR / 1 USD : 46.85

On the global counter: Wall Street ends higher; tech stocks push Nasdaq up 1.5% while Asian trading mixed; Hang Seng down, Nikkei up. The US markets ended with moderate gains on Friday. The Nasdaq, which consists mostly of technology stocks, rallied post better quarterly performance from Oracle and Research in Motion (RIM). The gains in Dow and S&P got curbed by rise in the dollar index. Technology stocks witnessed buying interest post the news. Oracle jumped 6.4% to USD 24.34; its Q2FY10 net profit went up 12.31% to USD 1.46 billion from USD 1.3 billion in the same quarter of previous year. Its sales increased to USD 5.9 billion from USD 5.6 billion YoY).

Stocks in action for the day: RIL, REC, Welspun, Prime Focus, ONGC, DRL
JSL CDR update: -Talks between JSL lenders & promoters inconclusive -Bankers want promoters to pledge entire 55% holding while promoters want to decrease pledge to 5-7% -Promoters want banks to fund 50- 75% debt in foreign currency JSL total exposure stands at Rs 7,000 crore
RIL – RNRL update -Arguments in RIL-RNRL D6 gas case conclude at SC (Supreme Court) Solicitor General Says: -Government property being used for mergers-demergers -EGoM (Empowered Group of Minister) decided pricing, allocation can't be challenged -Govt has been subject to trial by ambush -Surprised that RIL claimed RNRL allocated gas by EGoM -RIL no more than an agent for selling gas
MRF FY09 results today
IFCI still in NSE F&O curb
SEBI asks govt to mull action against RIL for allegedly routing funds to dummy cos for buying large quantity of its shares in 2000:
Telangana impact: KCR warns that illegal lands acquired by Dr Reddy's and IMAX will be confiscated once Telangana is formed
Lilly wins British drug patent case versus Dr Reddy's
REC FPO to hit markets in January-February 2010: Power Ministry
ONGC declares 2 gas finds, Rs 18 per share dividend
Bright Brothers open offer at Rs 50 (CMP 43)
Golden Tobacco board meet to consider development of properties
Indiabulls Financials, Societe General sever ties for life insurance JV – FE
Petroleum Ministry has asked Finance Ministry to give infra status to E&P, also extend subsidy of LPG and Kerosene beyond March 2010 – FE
Welspun to merge 3 investment firms to unlock value, raise funds – Mint
Prime Focus earned $18 million for providing visual effects in Avatar – BS
Indian ADR: Tata Communications up 6.4%
Asian Hotels: Demerger to unlock value for shareholders: Delhi-based Asian Hotels (AHL), one of the largest players in the hospitality business, has got its shareholders’ approval to demerge the company into three independent entities. The three undertakings will own one property each in Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata. 

(Ilango)

I do not wish to change the "Conservative Trade" recommendation during intraday. As this is mainly for the benefit of traders who do not monitor the market live and also not visit the blog during the day, "Entry & Exits" will be indicated only in the Pre-Market Views and no changes will be made during market hours. However, the levels for trading will continue as well as "Intraday updates".

SCRIP = INFOTECH ENTERPRISES LTD. (NSE),
SCRIP CODE = INFOTECENT,
PREVIOUS CLOSE = 313.1,
STOP LOSS = 305,
TARGET = 360.
FOR INTRADAY MOVEMENT OF THE STOCKFILTER PLEASE Click Here!
(OR CLICK THE LINK ABOVE LIVE SENSEX WATCH.)

chart as on 21-12-2009

WITH A CONSIDERABLE RISE IN VOLUMES, THE STOCK HAS GIVEN A FRESH BREAKOUT IN THE LAST TRADING SESSION. THE STOCK WAS IN CONSOLIDATION SINCE NOVEMBER.
THE STOCHASTICS, RSI AND MACD SHOW A POSITIVE CROSSOVER.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT SUGGESTS THIS COUNTER GOOD FOR A SHORT TERM RANGE.
STRICTLY MAINTAIN AND FOLLOW THE STOP LOSS.