Wednesday, December 9, 2009

newsletter



Sensex :

Nothing much has changed here. 16500 and 17300 remains the range. Be stock specific. For more go through the posts below.

Disclosure: KFA recommended to clients recently at 55 and booked at 60 may again look for entry.generally a high risk stock so dont go leveraged.
RICE Stocks seem to be back in favour.

Lakshmi Over seas a better bet only if it gives a breakout in coming days.

Speculative call on Kalindee
IDBI remains a long term favorite. Buy only on intra dips.
Chamble keep a watch for next few sessions.
 
 
Friends,
I discussed about Coal Mines when we read the news that Warren Buffet is buying Burlington Northern at 27% premium.This co is engaged in the freight rail transportation business .I wrote at that time that Coal will become very dear commodity and international investors need to buy stocks of Coal Mines like Rio Tinto , BHP Biliton to name a few.
The effect seems to have started......

HIGHGLOBALCOAL PRICES TO HIT POWER PROJECTS

DEVJYOT GHOSHAL Kolkata, 7 December
After a sedate year, rising coal prices could hit the coffers of importbased domestic power generators in the next year. Spot prices for the fuel at Australia’s Newcastle port, a benchmark for Asia, have appreciated almost 10 per cent in November and rates at China’s Qinhuangdao port, a standard for the world’s largest coal consumer, have also seen a steady increase over the last two months.

Harried by the supply-demand mismatch in Indian coal production, anumber of private sector power companies have pegged their portbased projects on overseas coal, with aspecific dependence on the Indonesian variety. These include Reliance Power, which intends on using Krishnapatnam port, Essar Power, through Salaya port, and Tata Power as well as Adani Power, both of who will use Mundra Port.

“With Indian coal mining companies being unable to provide service to power producers such as NTPC, there is a huge dependence on the international market which is expected to increase as the volumes required are just not available in the country. Although long-term arrangements are being worked out, substantial amount of coal comes through the import route at present,” an analyst with InfralineEnergy Reseach and Information said.

However, with Indonesia’s thermal coal export growth likely to see amarked slowdown, importing the fuel will become more expensive for Indian firms.

Although Indonesian exports account for over 35 per cent of the global sea-borne coal market, the ability of Indonesian producers to ramp up production for sustaining export growth could be constrained by delay and regulatory uncertainties. Also, rising demand from Indonesian power producers and cautious capex programmes by major miners there, due to the global crisis, could see the prices of Indonesian coal rising in the coming months, according to a research by Citigroup.

Supply tightness is also expected to persist globally as export growth in both Australia and South Africa will be restricted due to port and rail infrastructure development. In the latter market, growing domestic demand, too, is likely to have an impact on thermal coal prices, an analysis by AME Mineral Economics suggested.

Moreover, thermal coal prices will also lent a degree of robustness as China, a study by Barclays Capital says, is likely to remain a major importer next year on the back of mine consolidation, expectation of a strong economic growth and possibility of higher taxes. In recent weeks, an increase in heating demand in China, triggered by the harshest winter in almost six decades, have spiked coal prices at Qinhuangdao port.

“Considering almost half of the coal requirement for the new coastal power projects is to be brought in from abroad, there will definitely be an impact on power companies. Although the cost of generation will increase, passing on the burden to the consumer will be tough and it will have to be absorbed by the generators themselves,” Angel Broking analyst Rupesh Sankhe said.

Although power companies have been allocated coal blocks for captive use, exploration and production from these might not happen immediately. Also, with many firms scouting for coal assets overseas, there is a dependence on spot purchases in the short-term.

“Larger players who have already secured assets abroad are unlikely to be affected and their consumers will not be hit if global coal prices rise. However, those firms who don’t have their own mines and are dependent on the market will have to bear the brunt,” Visa Group Chairman Vishambhar Saran said.

Although India has substantial non-coking coal reserves, in the range of 230 billion tonnes, there has been an increased reliance on imported coal. In 2007-08, the country imported about 28 million tonnes of non-coking coal as compared to 8.69 million tonnes in 2003-04. However, according to Citigroup estimates, India could have a combined import demand for thermal and coking coal to the tune of 140 million tonnes per year by 2013-14.

Spot prices for the fuel have appreciated almost 10% in November

Harried by the supply-demand mismatch in Indian coal production, a number of private sector power companies have pegged their portbased projects on overseas coal, with a specific dependence on the Indonesian variety

Tata does a Nano in water purifiers

BS REPORTER Mumbai, 7 December
The Tata group has done yet another Nano — this time in the water purifier segment. Group company Tata Chemicals today launched acompact water purifier, called ‘Swach’, which means clean in Hindi.

Two variants of the purifier, priced at Rs 749 and Rs 999, will be available by the end of this month. Four other models would also be launched in the next six to 12 months.

“This opens up a completely new market,” Tata Chemicals MD R Mukundan said here today, after Tata Group Chairman Ratan Tata launched the product. He added the intention is to sell a million units over the next 12 months.

The total water purification market, including industrial, municipal and households, is pegged at around Rs 10,000 crore. However, the share of household water purifiers in this is minimal. The cheapest water purifier in the market at present is HUL’s Pureit and Eureka Forbes’ Aquasure, which cost Rs 2,000 each.

Competitors declined to comment on the issue, saying they need time to study the product before taking aview. Tata Chemicals said

Swach complies with US Environmental Protection Agency standards and does not require running water, power or boiling. Each filter for the Tata Swach , which is packaged as a 19litre, teal and white plastic box, has a lifespan of 3,000 litres — about enough to provide a family of five drinking water for a year.

The filter uses paddy husk ash as a matrix, bound with microscopic particles of silver to kill the bacteria that cause 80 per cent of waterborne diseases, executives said. Paddy husk ash has long been known for its cleansing properties, and India produces about 20 million tonnes of it a year.

The filter was designed in aTata Consultancy Services lab, while the silver nanotechnology was added by Tata Chemicals. Titan, Tata’s watch subsidiary, made the precision machine tools to manufacture the filter.

The group’s agrochemical firm, Rallis India, will distribute the product. The farm services business, Tata Kisan Sansar, will also be roped in. Mukundan said the company has set up a production unit in Haldia, West Bengal, which has an initial production capacity of one million units per annum.

Tata Chemicals has had test runs of the product in 600 households in Uttar Pradesh, Orissa, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra.

Nifty is poised to clear the previous intra high of 5182. However, it has closed at the highest(5148) by closing above the previous highest close of 5142. Holding 5100 only, new highs are possible. Besides Nifty has just entered into the previous resistance zone of 5150-5160. Positive global cues may help it climb higher.
How high this upmove will take Nifty to is debatable with many valid targets but it will be the "Last upmove" based on EW, weekly "OB" as well as Monthly OB. Play along the current trend till warning bells ring in the form of "Negative divergences" & Completed wave forms.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A redrawn Hourly channel gave a break out above the "Day's high till 1.30PM(5107).

"
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Day Low ema" gave a perfect support. By closing above "Day High ema", the momentum is back in Nifty to make new highs.Hour macd is back into +ve territory.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
FOR DATE 9-12-2009
SCRIP = JAI CORP LIMITED. (NSE),
SCRIP CODE = JAICORPLTD,
PREVIOUS CLOSE = 220.55,
STOP LOSS = 213,
TARGET = 300.
FOR INTRADAY MOVEMENT OF THE STOCKFILTER PLEASE Click Here!
(OR CLICK THE LINK ABOVE LIVE SENSEX WATCH.)
CHART AS ON  8-12-2009CHART AS ON 8-12-2009
WITH A CONSIDERABLE RISE IN VOLUMES, THE STOCK HAS GIVEN A FRESH BREAKOUT IN THE LAST TRADING SESSION. THE STOCK WAS IN CONSOLIDATION SINCE NOVEMBER.
THE MOVING AVERAGE, STOCHASTICS AND RSI SHOW A POSITIVE CROSSOVER.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT SUGGESTS THIS COUNTER GOOD FOR A SHORT TERM RANGE.
STRICTLY MAINTAIN AND FOLLOW THE STOP LOSS.


 

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