RELIANCE VIEW - PREPARING TO BREAKOUT OF SYMMETRICAL TRINGLE
RELIANCE chart has a very interesting classic symmetrical triangle pattern and the stock has been knocking at the upper line for past few weeks but unable to break it. But the chart looks quite bullish and sooner than later it should succeed. The breakout above 1111 should take it straight to immediate next level of 1265. The symmetrical triangle breakout target will be discussed in future when the breakout happens. However if it breaks below 1050 some short term weakness can be expected.
BUY IB SEC SL 31 TGT 38-41.
BUY INDIABULLS ABOVE 136 SL 130 TGT 150-154.
BUY STER BIO SL 90 TGT 102-107.
BUY ADANI POWER SL 92 TGT 103.
BUY NHPC SL 32 TGT 38.
BUY VARUN ABOVE 152 SL 146 TGT 169.
NIFTY HAS SUPPORT AT 5050-5010 RESISTANCE AT 5181-5275.
BUY INDIABULLS ABOVE 136 SL 130 TGT 150-154.
BUY STER BIO SL 90 TGT 102-107.
BUY ADANI POWER SL 92 TGT 103.
BUY NHPC SL 32 TGT 38.
BUY VARUN ABOVE 152 SL 146 TGT 169.
NIFTY HAS SUPPORT AT 5050-5010 RESISTANCE AT 5181-5275.
Friends,
Bombay Dyeing is having lands at Worli and Dadar area which are very precious area where the price can be enormous.
Bombay Dyeing Realty launches two projects in Mumbai. The opted locations are Worli and Dadar. CNBC-TV18’s Varinder Bansal reports.
Below is a verbatim transcript of Varinder Bansal’s comments on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.
Bombay Dyeing is all set to develop residential and commercial projects. It has a landbank of nearly 90 acre in Dadar and Worli. If we translate this to per lakh square feet, it comes upto 60 lakh square feet taking FSI of nearly 1.33. The average land rate in Dadar and Worli is 10,000 per square feet. The land value is seen around Rs 6,000 crore...
Company background:
The company’s current market capital is Rs 1,600 crore. In FY09 the company made a hug loss. On textile segment, it reported a huge loss of Rs 66 crore whereas in the polyester segment the company reported a loss of Rs 73 crore. The reality arm of the company is doing very well. In FY09, the company made a profit in the realty segment worth Rs 160 crore.
Analysis says that in the coming four-five years, the realty arm could be demerged and be listed separately. Investors are enthusiastic about this particular company. Foreign brokerage has come up with a small note to some of the clients that the net asset value of this company could be valued between Rs 1,000-1,200 per share.
So has Bombay Burmah....where they have land banks and interest in Aviation Ind ,TEA Plantataion, Coffe Plantation and Rubber Plantation which is their old business .....along with that they have Laminate Flooing division which is very famous brand....Formica..
These twins of Nusli Wadia can give great returns if hold pateintly for LT......the land bank they possess in a very cream area of Mumbai, viz.Dadar and Worli( known for it's Sea face)....one need to keep in mind that Bombay Burmah also have land bank.......
Bombay Dyeing is having lands at Worli and Dadar area which are very precious area where the price can be enormous.
Bombay Dyeing Realty launches two projects in Mumbai. The opted locations are Worli and Dadar. CNBC-TV18’s Varinder Bansal reports.
Below is a verbatim transcript of Varinder Bansal’s comments on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.
Bombay Dyeing is all set to develop residential and commercial projects. It has a landbank of nearly 90 acre in Dadar and Worli. If we translate this to per lakh square feet, it comes upto 60 lakh square feet taking FSI of nearly 1.33. The average land rate in Dadar and Worli is 10,000 per square feet. The land value is seen around Rs 6,000 crore...
Company background:
The company’s current market capital is Rs 1,600 crore. In FY09 the company made a hug loss. On textile segment, it reported a huge loss of Rs 66 crore whereas in the polyester segment the company reported a loss of Rs 73 crore. The reality arm of the company is doing very well. In FY09, the company made a profit in the realty segment worth Rs 160 crore.
Analysis says that in the coming four-five years, the realty arm could be demerged and be listed separately. Investors are enthusiastic about this particular company. Foreign brokerage has come up with a small note to some of the clients that the net asset value of this company could be valued between Rs 1,000-1,200 per share.
So has Bombay Burmah....where they have land banks and interest in Aviation Ind ,TEA Plantataion, Coffe Plantation and Rubber Plantation which is their old business .....along with that they have Laminate Flooing division which is very famous brand....Formica..
These twins of Nusli Wadia can give great returns if hold pateintly for LT......the land bank they possess in a very cream area of Mumbai, viz.Dadar and Worli( known for it's Sea face)....one need to keep in mind that Bombay Burmah also have land bank.......
Weekend Edition: BSE Sensex - Low-Volume Trend Diminishes Price-Action Significance
BSE Sensex Daily Chart - December 11, 2009 (6-Month)
BSE Sensex Daily Chart - December 11, 2009 (1-Year)
Now we wait for the follow-up confirmation.
Price & Volume Action
It's never considered a positive technical development when a stock or an index not only gives up all its intraday gains but also ends up in the negative territory. In the last couple of weeks, benchmark index, BSE Sensex, experienced at least three such days. In a normal scenario, this would have killed a rally and changed its trend. However, this technical development deserves an asterisk now because the low level of turnover has kind of reduced the significance of the price-action. As highlighted in the charts, in last few weeks, there has been only one above-average trade and that too because of Dubai World debt crisis. Luckily, on that day, BSE Sensex closed towards the top end of the day's range, a positive sign. But nonetheless, recent price action has put the uptrend in jeopardy and benchmark indices now need to show strong follow-up price-volume action to confirm the uptrend. This would come in the form of index making a big move on above average trade.
It's never considered a positive technical development when a stock or an index not only gives up all its intraday gains but also ends up in the negative territory. In the last couple of weeks, benchmark index, BSE Sensex, experienced at least three such days. In a normal scenario, this would have killed a rally and changed its trend. However, this technical development deserves an asterisk now because the low level of turnover has kind of reduced the significance of the price-action. As highlighted in the charts, in last few weeks, there has been only one above-average trade and that too because of Dubai World debt crisis. Luckily, on that day, BSE Sensex closed towards the top end of the day's range, a positive sign. But nonetheless, recent price action has put the uptrend in jeopardy and benchmark indices now need to show strong follow-up price-volume action to confirm the uptrend. This would come in the form of index making a big move on above average trade.
BSE Sensex Daily Chart - December 11, 2009 (1-Year)
Recent BSE Sensex technical analysis:
- BSE Sensex: 15-Day Moving Average Is The Primary Line Of Support Again
- BSE Sensex Closes The Week Up On Higher Volume; A Bullish Sign
- Weekend Edition: BSE Sensex Regains Key Support Level on Higher Weekly Volume
Keep a SL @ 200 & Buy it for some quick returns.
Technical analysis is a study of past prices of an index/ Stock or Commodity with the assistance of certain mathematically derived tools to forecast the future price movements. However, the simplest & most effective tool devoid of mathematical applications which identifies and confirms a trend is called a trendline (Channels) .
Stocks move up on persistent demand(buying) or down because of relentless supply (selling) or sideways because of a close tussle between buyers & sellers. A trendline in most occasions says it all. If you observe lane discipline and travel by the sign boards, you reach your destination safe & sound. Trendlines help you reap the richest haul from the markets in a similar safe way.
A trend line is a straight line that connects two or more price points and then extends into the future to act as a line of support or resistance. The upward sloping trendline may be called a demand line as stocks bounce of that line due to a rise in demand and similarly the downward sloping trendline may be called a supply line as every time the stocks reaches that line supply comes in & prices fall. In a sideways market, the unresolved "supply & demand" gets into a tussle for supremacy which gets resolved when either demand or supply overpowers the other. As long as the larger trendline is intact, each sideways move will get resolved in favour of the main trend.
Uptrend Line(Demand line)
An uptrend line has a positive slope and is formed by connecting two or more low points. The second low must be higher than the first for the line to have a positive slope. Uptrend lines act as support and indicate that net-demand (demand less supply) is increasing even as the price rises. As long as prices remain above the trend line, the uptrend is considered solid and intact. A break below the uptrend line indicates that net-demand has weakened and a change in trend could be imminent.
Downtrend Line (Supply Line)
A downtrend line has a negative slope and is formed by connecting two or more high points. The second high must be lower than the first for the line to have a negative slope. Downtrend lines act as resistance, and indicate that net-supply (supply less demand) is increasing even as the price declines. As long as prices remain below the downtrend line, the downtrend is solid and intact. A break above the downtrend line indicates that net-supply is decreasing and that a change of trend could be imminent.
Semi-log Chart for Higher cycles(Week/Month)
High points and low points appear to line up better for trend lines when prices are displayed using a semi-log scale. This is especially true when long-term trend lines are being drawn or when there is a large change in price. Most charting programs allow users to set the scale as arithmetic or semi-log. A semi-log scale displays incremental values in percentage terms as they move up the y-axis. A move from Rs10 to Rs20 is a 100% gain, and would appear to be a much larger than a move from Rs100 to Rs110, which is only a 10% gain. The rate of ascent appears smoother on the semi-log scale. On the semi-log scale, the trend line fits all the way up.The semi-log scale reflects the percentage gain evenly, and the uptrend line was never broken till jan.08. Long term investors will do well to use this semi-log charts to maximise their gains by increasing their holding period. Smart investors will exit at the channel peak when the sentiment reading is of "Euphoria" with highest PE.
Arithmetic Chart for lower cycles(Day/Hour)
An arithmetic scale displays incremental values (5,10,15,20,25,30) evenly as they move up the y-axis. A Rs10 movement in price will look the same from Rs10 to Rs20 or from Rs100 to Rs110. On the arithmetic scale, three different trend lines were required to keep pace with the advance.
It takes two or more points to draw a trend line. The more points used to draw the trend line, the more validity attached to the support or resistance level represented by the trend line. The general rule in technical analysis is that it takes two points to draw a trend line and the third point confirms the validity.
The magic of trendlines unfold into channels when parallel lines are drawn and these channels give you often the "targets" to book out as well as "fresh entry point" as illustrated in the chart of "UNITECH".
As the steepness of a trend line increases, the validity of the support or resistance level decreases. The angle of a trend line created from such sharp moves is unlikely to offer a meaningful support or resistance level.
Combining timecycles:
As illustrated from the chart of "SAIL"- Daily & Hourly, a trendline breakdown in the lower time cycle(Hour) may be construed as a mere correction as long as the higher timecycle prices are trending up within the channel. When the price breaks down in the hour which also coincides with the likely breakdown in the daily, a critical reversal point is spotted early on and a trade could be initiated with a high potential profit with limited risk.
In EW study, trendlines play a very important role in identifying a wave(as Elliott never defined what is a wave?), the end of corrections, type of corrections, target setting coupled with fibonacci relationships and most important of all is the early warning signal of the end of the 4th wave with a small(false) break down in the trendline, thereby initiating the swift 5th wave trade which then completes the trend.
Trend lines can offer great insight to trading coupled with horizontal support and resistance levels or peak-and-trough analysis.
Trendlines are easy to apply and the trader need to be persistent as well as consistent and balanced in his approach. Highly traded stocks has highly tradeable channels. As trendlines follow only the prices, not the often distracting technical oscillators, many traders swear by it and base their trading strategies with only trendlines.
The simplest of all technical analysis, Trendlines, which effectively captures the demand & supply - the very basic of stock price behaviour, if exploited in a balanced way with tremendous amount of patience & conviction, can bring the riches beyond a trader's/ investor's imagination..Believe in it.
Get Rich Slowly.
Stocks move up on persistent demand(buying) or down because of relentless supply (selling) or sideways because of a close tussle between buyers & sellers. A trendline in most occasions says it all. If you observe lane discipline and travel by the sign boards, you reach your destination safe & sound. Trendlines help you reap the richest haul from the markets in a similar safe way.
A trend line is a straight line that connects two or more price points and then extends into the future to act as a line of support or resistance. The upward sloping trendline may be called a demand line as stocks bounce of that line due to a rise in demand and similarly the downward sloping trendline may be called a supply line as every time the stocks reaches that line supply comes in & prices fall. In a sideways market, the unresolved "supply & demand" gets into a tussle for supremacy which gets resolved when either demand or supply overpowers the other. As long as the larger trendline is intact, each sideways move will get resolved in favour of the main trend.
Uptrend Line(Demand line)
An uptrend line has a positive slope and is formed by connecting two or more low points. The second low must be higher than the first for the line to have a positive slope. Uptrend lines act as support and indicate that net-demand (demand less supply) is increasing even as the price rises. As long as prices remain above the trend line, the uptrend is considered solid and intact. A break below the uptrend line indicates that net-demand has weakened and a change in trend could be imminent.
Downtrend Line (Supply Line)
A downtrend line has a negative slope and is formed by connecting two or more high points. The second high must be lower than the first for the line to have a negative slope. Downtrend lines act as resistance, and indicate that net-supply (supply less demand) is increasing even as the price declines. As long as prices remain below the downtrend line, the downtrend is solid and intact. A break above the downtrend line indicates that net-supply is decreasing and that a change of trend could be imminent.
Semi-log Chart for Higher cycles(Week/Month)
High points and low points appear to line up better for trend lines when prices are displayed using a semi-log scale. This is especially true when long-term trend lines are being drawn or when there is a large change in price. Most charting programs allow users to set the scale as arithmetic or semi-log. A semi-log scale displays incremental values in percentage terms as they move up the y-axis. A move from Rs10 to Rs20 is a 100% gain, and would appear to be a much larger than a move from Rs100 to Rs110, which is only a 10% gain. The rate of ascent appears smoother on the semi-log scale. On the semi-log scale, the trend line fits all the way up.The semi-log scale reflects the percentage gain evenly, and the uptrend line was never broken till jan.08. Long term investors will do well to use this semi-log charts to maximise their gains by increasing their holding period. Smart investors will exit at the channel peak when the sentiment reading is of "Euphoria" with highest PE.
Arithmetic Chart for lower cycles(Day/Hour)
An arithmetic scale displays incremental values (5,10,15,20,25,30) evenly as they move up the y-axis. A Rs10 movement in price will look the same from Rs10 to Rs20 or from Rs100 to Rs110. On the arithmetic scale, three different trend lines were required to keep pace with the advance.
It takes two or more points to draw a trend line. The more points used to draw the trend line, the more validity attached to the support or resistance level represented by the trend line. The general rule in technical analysis is that it takes two points to draw a trend line and the third point confirms the validity.
The magic of trendlines unfold into channels when parallel lines are drawn and these channels give you often the "targets" to book out as well as "fresh entry point" as illustrated in the chart of "UNITECH".
As the steepness of a trend line increases, the validity of the support or resistance level decreases. The angle of a trend line created from such sharp moves is unlikely to offer a meaningful support or resistance level.
Combining timecycles:
As illustrated from the chart of "SAIL"- Daily & Hourly, a trendline breakdown in the lower time cycle(Hour) may be construed as a mere correction as long as the higher timecycle prices are trending up within the channel. When the price breaks down in the hour which also coincides with the likely breakdown in the daily, a critical reversal point is spotted early on and a trade could be initiated with a high potential profit with limited risk.
In EW study, trendlines play a very important role in identifying a wave(as Elliott never defined what is a wave?), the end of corrections, type of corrections, target setting coupled with fibonacci relationships and most important of all is the early warning signal of the end of the 4th wave with a small(false) break down in the trendline, thereby initiating the swift 5th wave trade which then completes the trend.
Trend lines can offer great insight to trading coupled with horizontal support and resistance levels or peak-and-trough analysis.
Trendlines are easy to apply and the trader need to be persistent as well as consistent and balanced in his approach. Highly traded stocks has highly tradeable channels. As trendlines follow only the prices, not the often distracting technical oscillators, many traders swear by it and base their trading strategies with only trendlines.
The simplest of all technical analysis, Trendlines, which effectively captures the demand & supply - the very basic of stock price behaviour, if exploited in a balanced way with tremendous amount of patience & conviction, can bring the riches beyond a trader's/ investor's imagination..Believe in it.
Get Rich Slowly.
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