NEWSLETTER

(A K Prabhakar)

Keynes economist or a Investor

Which is the best investment method?

There are many method of investment Fundamental, Technical, insider news, investing using economical cycles, investment based on greed and fear( investing when Sensex was below10,000 after 50% correction from peak), investment based on dividend yield, investing based on bottoming of industry cycle(Hotel & Textile in worst phase now) and even being a contrarian investor  George Soros has excelled.

So it is not in one method of investing the best investors have used multiple combination legendary investor Warren Buffet even waited for years to invest in panic of 2008-09 so he waited for fear in market to invest with greed.

History says John Maynard Keynes British economist as one of the best speculator and investor who lived during Great Depression and World War I & II.

After Sub-Prime crisis the global economy is following Keynesian economics among various policy makers from the world's industrialized economies. This included discussion and implementation of economic policies in accordance with the recommendations made by John Maynard Keynes in response to the Great Depression—such as fiscal stimulus and expansionary monetary policy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%932009_Keynesian_resurgence

John Maynard Keynes,  (5 June 1883 – 21 April 1946) was a British economist whose ideas have been a central influence on modern macroeconomics, both in theory and practice. He advocated interventionist government policy, by which governments would use fiscal and monetary measures to mitigate the adverse effects of business cycles, economic recessions, and depressions. His ideas are the basis for the school of thought known as Keynesian economics, and its various offshoots.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Maynard_Keynes

Keynes economist or a Investor

Keynes was an economist; he was an investor; he was a patron of the arts and a lover of ballet. He was a speculator. He was also confidant of prime ministers. He had a civil service career. So he lived a very full life in all those ways.” Keynes speculated with his personal account, invested on behalf of various investment and insurance trusts and even ran a college endowment, each of which had different goals, time horizons, and product mandates.

Upon his death, he left a substantial personal fortune primarily a result of his financial market activities. Evidence of Keynes’ investing acumen can be found in the returns of the King’s College Cambridge endowment, the College Chest, for which he had total discretion as the First Bursar. A publicly available track record shows he returned an average of 13.2% per annum from 1928 to 1945, a time when the broad UK equity index lost an average of 0.5% per annum.

This was quite a feat considering the 1929 stock market crash, the Great Depression, and World War II occurred over that time frame. But, like all great investors, Keynes first had to learn some difficult lessons. He was not immune to blowups in spite of his superior intellect and understanding of global markets. In the early 1900s, he successfully speculated in global currencies on margin before switching to the commodity markets. Then, during the commodity slump of 1929, his personal account was completely wiped out by a margin call. After the 1929 setback, his greatest successes came from investing globally in equities but he continued to speculate in bonds and commodities.

His investment philosophy . . . changed in line with his evolving economic theories. He learned a lot of his theory from his experience as an investor and this theory in turn modified his practice as an investor.”

 

Sesa Goa : Promoters have increased their stake: Target price is Rs. 300

HCL Info : Strong bidder Unique ID Card contract

Stride Arco. : Investors fancy to increase with launch of medicine of Swine Flu

Piramal Healthcare : Investors fancy to increase with the company in take over list of Glaxo-Smithcline

HDFC : Reputed brokerage house has recommended investment

Zee Enter : Volume and price to move up

LIC Housing : Invest with target price of Rs. 950

Patel Engg. : safe bet as Rs. 7300 crores order on hand

Rolta India : Analysts have started taking interest on the counter

Hindustan Zinc : Invest at every dip in price

Apar Ind. : Attractive financial performance expected in FY 2009-10

Dalmia Cement : Make it a portfolio choice

IBN 18 : Current expected with positive decision about right issue

Cairn India : Worth investing at lower price level

Bhusan Steel : Stock price to move up by Rs. 40 to 50

Swaraj Engg. : Stake of M & M to boost the scrip price

Spice Comm. : Green signal for merger with Idea

K.S. Oil : Increasing flow of FII

Uco Bank : FPO of Rs. 135 crores planned

J.P. Hydro : Collect 25o million through FCCB/GDRs

Gujarat NRE Coke : Scrip may turn out to be dark horse as company is freely distributing bonus

Mahindra Satyam : Scrip in limelight with probability of new orders after huge contract with GE

FAME India : Price on the rise with volume under the effect of huge block deals

Meghmani Organics : Huge rise in income-profit with Dahej project of the company

Sical Logistics : Expected to get advantage of expansion

 

Rohit Ferro Tech (Rs.42.45), which reported profit of around Rs.5 cr. in Q1FY10, is likely to post Rs.10/12 cr. profit in Q2FY10 and Rs.20/22 cr. in Q3FY10 in view of the benefit of firm prices that become effective Q3FY10 onwards. Stock is likely to show a good upmove.

* After good consolidation, it is possible that Kalpena Industries (Rs.138) may now move up for the next target of Rs.200 over the next few months.

* Lancor Holdings (Rs.103.25) was recommended between Rs.32-40 levels a few weeks back from where it has moved up sharply. There is promoter buying in this stock. Investors can continue to hold for a target price of Rs.125 level.

* Atul Ltd. (Rs.81.55) was recommended from lower levels in this column. With recovery in the global economy, the company is expected to do well since 50% of its sales are from exports. Investors can continue to hold this stock for the next target of Rs.125.

* Although Suzlon Energy (Rs.92) moved up well from its low, it has underperformed the capital goods sector. The company has initiated a cost reduction programme to reduce overheads by Rs.500 cr. annually. Moreover, in view of the expected improvement in the global economy, the company should do well over the long run. Investors can keep a watch on this stock for buying on dips.

* Kalpataru Power (Rs.835) had bagged some orders at fixed rates when raw material costs were at their peak last year. The company will benefit now and earn better margins in view of the fall in raw material prices. The outlook of the company is encouraging and it is likely to benefit from expansion in future. Investors can stay invested for target price of Rs.1500 over the next one year.

* After a long consolidation, Indian Hume Pipes (Rs.679.30) has closed well at Rs.681. Investors can continue to hold this stock for a target of Rs.900 level where it can be reviewed.

* Godrej Industries (Rs.198.90) is strongly advised by some knowledgeable investors for an upmove. Investors can buy as a momentum call on a stop loss basis.

* After a long wait, GTL Infra (Rs.41.35) has closed well. Investors can continue to hold the same.

* Revathi Equipments (Rs.599) is said to be doing well and is likely to report an encouraging performance in H2FY10. Its Construction Equipment Division is also likely to get good orders the second half. The stock is likely to touch Rs.1000 mark over the next 6 months.

* Supreme Industries (Rs.316.50) has consolidated well over the last 3 months between Rs.290 to Rs.325 levels and may see a breakout in the near future. Investors can continue to hold for good growth over the next one year.

The market did open flat to negative led by global cues and It was a negative closing for the market on the first day of new series and again seen profit booking from higher side due to long weekend.Market took support from 4931 which is its very immediate support ( 78.6 Per ) and almost closed above its immediate support too which is placed near 4955 (7 DEMA ).Going forward market seems to be mature now in the higher side and as long as it not provide a breakout in the upside above 5035-55 the selling on rise may continue but it will not fall drastically as long as we are maintain above 4950-4935 zone for the short term.Any dip if comes in the market that can slide nifty to kiss the support levels of 4950 and then 4860 but from these levels we may see again buying in the market.if we fail to hold these levels then the healthy correction is not ruled out.





NIFTY (4958.95)
Resistance : 4965 / 4995 / 5025 / 5085
Support : 4925 / 4895 / 4830


SENSEX (16693)
Resistance : 16710 / 16800 / 16910
Support : 16600 / 16500 / 16385


NIFTY FUT (4967.25)
Resistance : 4970 / 5005 / 5045 / 5080
Support : 4930 / 4890 / 4845


BANK NIFTY (8467.35)
Resistance : 8485 / 8540 / 8615
Support : 8405 / 8350






MKT COMMENTS
NIFTY FUT OI marginal up with increasing volumes indicating unwinding of long positions plus forming of fresh short positions.
We expect NIFTY FUT to trade volatile.






On Tuesday,Opening Is Flat To Down,
Buy NIFTY Above 4985,Sl Below 4965,Tgt 5010/5035/5060/5085
Sell NIFTY Below 4965,Sl Above 4985,Tgt 4940/4915/4890/4865




Heavy Risk Traders
Buy NIFTY Around 4905/4915,Sl 4865,Tgt 4980/5020






BUY (Delivery)


BBL@ 950/1000,Tgt 1500/1600/1700
PANTALOON@320/340,Tgt 390/410






INTRA




KFA@ 55/56,Sl 52,Tgt 60/62/64
JETAIR Above 320,Sl 315,Tgt 330/35/40/45
DISHTV@ 44/45,Sl 43,Tgt 47/48


CIPLA,Sl 260,Tgt 275
RELINFRA,Sl 1180,Tgt 1230






FUTURES




BUY


BHARTI@ 420,Sl 410,Tgt 430/40/45
IDBI Above 126,Sl 124,Tgt 128/130/132
AXISBANK Above 925,Sl 915,Tgt 935/40/45




SELL


SAIL Below 170,Sl 173,Tgt 167/65/64
SBIN Below 2140,Sl 2155,Tgt 2120/10