NEWSLETTER

Nooresh Merani)

Sensex Technical View :

Among all the technical charts of various indices Sensex seems to be showing lot of resilience but it needs to be seen whether 16900-17200 can be crossed or it starts closing below 16600.

The downside support trendline is placed around 16000-16200 till that level is not broken there can be no technical confirmation of a major correction but testing closer or below those levels is highly possible.

On the upside two ranges are 16900-17200 and 17700-18000 but the risk-reward is slowly shifting away from long side to the short side on the index.

Stock specific View :

The major dilemma now is that the stock specific charts do look interesting with lots of fresh breakouts ! at the same time the comfort on the index is reducing !

At this juncture there is lot of indecision so i would prefer to watchout the next few sessions. Sometimes its not necessary to be part of the every upmove on stock specific side or downmove on the index.

Traders should look to hedge their longs by shorting Nifty futures in small qty or buying 4800 puts as a hedge only !!

So would prefer to avoid any stock specific calls for next few sessions !!! ..... Relax enjoy the long weekend ahead with Navratri celebrations and Dashera. 

 

(Nooresh Merani)

GOLD :

Previous life highs at 1035 and 1020-1025 from the upper trendline is a difficult resistance zone.

Short term triangle breakout levels of 950/980 could be tested in days to come. Could be a nice place to get back in to it.

A move above 1040 could only lead to a major turn on upside till then corrective decline possible.

HANG SENG :

The most closely co-related market to Sensex is showing caution signals as its coming close to testing the lower trendline.

Sustained closing below 20500 could lead to a deeper correction till then the trend remains bullish but caution is advised.

Only a move beyond 21600 could give a continuation of a stronger upmove. Risk-reward is tilting towards shorts.

DOW JONES :

The index has not been able to cross the upper trendline as shown by the green arrows.

It might possibly be making a rising wedge /triangle pattern. Sustained closing below 9650 could lead to a deeper correction to 9200/9500 zones in short term.

Only a move beyond current highs could lead a turnaround to 10300 which is ruled out as of now ! !

CRUDE :

Earlier had posted about a possibility of a major move if crude sustains above 74 which it could not.

The support line as seen through green arrows has been broken finally giving caution signals. Sustained closing below 66.5 can take it to 62-60 zones in short term.

Only a move beyond 71.5 could take a turnaround which is ruled out as of now ! !

MY CHART

Nifty :: As per our yesterday post Nifty sharply move up for support zone on fno expire day and made High wave, Harmi Black, Thrusting Line, bullish candle with strong volume.. After an two strong support 4971/4930 break, overall bullish structure slightly damage.. Be careful at higher level, aggressive short term sell stop loss at 5036 or maximum up to 5070..(Mid term buying stop loss just below 4885).. Up to 5036 our strategy remain same as yesterday for 25th Sep. sell at high (S.L 5036) buy in deep (S.L 4885).. Resistance for up move at 5002/5019/5036/5070.. Supports at 4941/4911/4890/4885/ 4845…

 

FOR DATE 25-9-2009
SCRIP = CESC LTD (NSE),
SCRIP CODE = CESC,
PREVIOUS CLOSE = 385.55,
STOP LOSS = 377,
TARGET = 462.
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CHART AS ON 24-9-2009

WITH A GOOD RISE IN VOLUMES, THIS COUNTER HAS GIVEN A FRESH BREAKOUT IN THE LAST TRADING SESSION. THE STOCK WAS RANGE BOUND SINCE SEPTEMBER.

THE STOCHASTICS AND RSI HAVE GIVEN A POSITIVE CROSSOVER, WHICH SUGGESTS THAT DEMAND HAS OVER POWERED SUPPLY.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT INDICATE THIS COUNTER GOOD FOR A SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM RANGE.

STRICTLY MAINTAIN AND FOLLOW THE STOP LOSS.