Sensex Technical View :
A few nothing days on the index with no major indication coming. Levels to watch remain at 15800/15350 on downside and 16500/17200 on the upside.
As i have suggested before even if markets have to correct the index may give a false breakout above the rising wedge creating an illusion. If not then the index can go to 17700-18000 if its a genuine range breakout. Basically indications for the same would be given by the market. So wait and watch.
I had mentioned about this false breakout possibility sometime back at 14700 when the Technical chartist (Technicals is an Art --- There is a difference between a hoarding / road painter and an Artist ) were again searching for a big correction.
Please do have a look at this chart posted on 23rd August suggesting a possible breakout above the trendline. Guess what --- We went long on specific stocks for the same period and now we are a little cautious......
Technically we are in an indecision mode on the index in near term but stock specific story might be different.
As a technical analyst one is supposed to wait for markets to indicate their next move and wait for confirmations rather then to catch the exact top or exact bottom. Many chartists in trying to do the same miss out on very big opportunities.
Be disciplined ---
Stocks to watchout for:
MRO tek and PNB gilts did a good move but again i would still mention its a speculative call so no credits to me :)
B L Kashyap has a given a breakout above 400 and the stock can go to 480 in the medium term. ( Disclosure Client call at 375/402 )
Small cap stocks like Rishi Laser ,Hind Nat Glass , ISMT , Sharyans Resources look good with a medium term view. Please do your research. May even give good moves in short term.
Tower Talk ---- ( not a buy or sell recommendation just speculation )
ABG Shipyard and Bharti shipyard will continue to notch higher in wake of Pipava Shipyard.
Retail traders are buying out of money October puts of 4500-4600 or calls of 5300 may end up losing money.
Shirpur Gold , Kinetic Motors,Genesys seems to have struck gold in their business and may move on ckts for some time.
Punters are betting heavily on chemicals agro related stocks like Sabero , Monsanto , Nagarjuna Agrichem with 3-6 mths view.
Subex Systems,IBSEC seeing some speculative built up for short term moves.
PSU Banks seeing fresh buying and a possible technical breakout but needs to see volume support.
Chart posted below
Nifty :: An Engulfing bearish candle pattern with low volume.. As per our weekly post Nifty take strong support above support zone 4750 to 4780.. As far as stay above 4780/4770 nothing to worry for bulls.. Now watch last top 4890 its works as strong resistance for up move.. All bearish pattern still valid so avoid buy at higher level or avoid to give long commitment for next day.. Overall short term bullish structure intact and that’s why our strategy for 15th Sep. up to 4780 buy in deep (S.L 4770) Sell at high (S.L 4906).. If Nifty move up and face resistance before 4890 change your strategy as sell at high (S.L 4906) buy in deep (S.L 4770).. Resistance for up move at 4856/4890/4906/ 4941/4978.. Supports at 4780/4770/4733/4712..
Like I said yesterday – it is not that the confusion is there in our minds only – it is there everywhere and no one really knows where, how and when we are headed too. That we have to go somewhere is – but inevitable. What is probably happening is that the positions are taken with a hope that the markets will go somewhere (mostly on the bearish side) and when the markets do not do anywhere there is a rush to square off the positions with a fear for carrying positions overnight and the markets then return to the start point. That would be a fair assumption why we are not going anywhere. Top this with dismal FII and DII interest – we are back to the start really with nothing happening. And at the cost of a repetition – it is not confined to our markets. It is happening everywhere. Look at Asia, Europe – US anywhere – the markets just not decided after moving up so much – where to go to.
Let us look at the global cues – Asia was all red and deep red (except us of course ;’-D ) Nikkei was down 2.3%, Hang Seng was down 1.08% and Strait Times was down 1.54%. Moving on to Europe they too opened with deep cuts but then went on to recover (something like us) FTSE finally closed 0.15% up in green, DAX down 0.07% and CAC down 0.11%. US is facing major concerns on the US-China trade terms and opened lower but as of now – just short of the mid session is hovering around the unchanged line – Dow in red 0.16%, Nasdaq down 0.04% and S&P down 0.03%. The way the things stand – the markets can make a recovery also – so will have to review again tomorrow.
As far as the technicals are concerned the candle was a red one – the entire day played out in a narrow zone only with a short covering helped attempt to recovery.The market momentum definitely seems to be tapering off on the charts. The volumes are low and the chances after today have brightened to visit middle Bollinger bands. TRIX is bullish and so is MACD and RSI. Slow Stochastic have come out of the overbought condition but are bearish as of now. All in all – nothing much is happening. ADX too seems bullish at the moment.
The options data is roaming around at the same place so I will not spend time to dwell upon it too much. The PCR is 1.81 and that is the expectations of the majority speaking that the market will fall – or let us put it this way that the markets should fall. The writers of Puts will not like that situation obviously so we can still wait out for a major fall to come our way.
All in all the trend so far remains bullish and for those long do not hold longs if the markets are likely to close below 4795 those in the bear camp who are short should not hold shorts if the markets are likely to close above 4859. For the day be long above 4807 and short below this level.
The market did open flat to negative and It was a negative closing for the Indian market on the very first day of the week.which saw again profit booking and pressure from higher side.market as expected remained in a choppy session with narrow range as Nifty had seen a breakout at 4730 and as long as it is above this support the uptrend is intact.Higher side we may be under pressure again as long as we are not going to surpass the level of 4856-4888 and in the downside we may be under bulls grip above 4780 for very immediate time frame and then 4690.Global cues are if not going to support the market then we can see a gap down open and an open below 4780 if comes the another round of selling is expected till 4725-4690.
NIFTY (4808.29)
Resistance : 4830 / 4855 / 4880
Support : 4790 / 4765 / 4730
SENSEX (16214.19)
Resistance : 16280 / 16345
Support : 16135 / 16060
NIFTY FUT (4822)
Resistance : 4845 / 4865 / 4890
Support : 4795 / 4760 / 4745 / 4720
On Tuesday,Opening Is Flat To Positive,
Buy NIFTY Above 4805,Sl Below 4785,Tgt 4820/35/55+
Sell NIFTY Below 4790,Sl Above 4810,Tgt 4775/60/40+
BUY
SBIN (1956),Sl Below 1925,Tgt 1970/80/90
TATASTL Above 475,Sl 445,Tgt 495/505/515
DENABNK Above 57,Sl 55,Tgt 59/60
IOB Above 99,Sl 97,Tgt 101/102/103+
HDIL (302.15)
Buy Above 310,Sl 300,Tgt 320/30
Sell Below 295,Sl 305,Tgt 285/75
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
COPPER
Resistance : 304/306
Support : 295/294
CRUDE
Resistance : 3425 Is A Key Level To Watch For
Support : 3300,Below 3280 More Weakness Will Be Seen
Reliance Chart - Daily:
I would not prefer to take new trade at this point of time. As Nifty is still in indecision so risk would be more then reward.
I have posted a long entry in Reliance when it formed a Bullish ABCD Pattern (Gartley with double bottom) at 1870 level. Which reached the targets of ABCD pattern immediately and reached the extended target of 2190 later on.
Reliance gave a wonderful opportunity to re-enter long trade on 4th Sep, But I didn't utilize it as I was holding some other scrips at that point of time.
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