Tuesday, February 16, 2010

NEWSLETTER


The current range in nifty is decreasing gradually and yet to give the confirmatory movement on either side after witnessing a mild correction on the upside against the downtrend on hourly. Sideways move had resulted into cluster of supports as well as resistances on either side, before any decisive movement on shorter time frame.
Supports: 4775 and 4750/52 are immediate, below that some more weakness can show 4705/08 before final breakdown. Below that 4640 and positional target of 4540-4440.
Resistances: 4805 and above that 4835 possible. Above that 4855-75 can come.Further violation of 4880 zone can bring 4920-4940/55 zone and decide next movements.
 Other stocks that are in news today: -NHAI sets new norms for project bidding – bars developers from bidding for new projects if the company has not achieved financial closure of 3 or more projects – BL (Move to hit companies like HCC, IVRCL, IRB Infra, Reliance Infra and Sadhbav Engg)
-ATF prices slashed 2.5%, relief for airlines
-BILT (Ballarpur Industries) make USD 200 million bid for Malaysian paper company GS Paper and Packaging – ET
-Birla Shloka board approves to raise limits upto Rs 75 crore by way of ADR / GDR (recently completed FPO)
-Golden Tobacco board meet today to consider development of the properties
-Jyoti Structures board approves issue of non-convertible debentures with detachable warrants upto Rs 125 crore
-Gwalior Chemical buyback at Rs 120
-Multifarious trading open offer at Rs 20/sh
The market continues to remain choppy. Nifty continues to trade in a narrow range and finds support within the pink channel. This is our positive scenario until the support is violated (support exists at 4750). We continue to face stiff resistance at 4835.

IIP numbers were great (17%) -but the upmove wasn't strong enough to take out 4835 on a closing basis. Volumes continue to diminish, indicating lack luster.

Nifty will continue to remain choppy all of this week until we see a decisive break (preferably on the downside).

Taking out 4835 will only lead to our next target of 4940. This in my opinion will be a good opportunity to short the index. However, moving below 4740 will again lead to a shorting opportunity for lower targets of 4450.

What do the indicators say?

1. RSI - continues its feeble attempt to inch up along the wedge.
2. MFI - Taking support along the trendline. A break in the trendline on the downside will lead to a fall in the index.
 
Bank Nifty has been in a corrective mode since the sharp fall
with time being consumed without any meaningful rally up.
If 8380(10sma)is cleared conviningly,
it may attempt 8650(20sma).
Break below 8250, it may resume the
next phase of the down move.




 

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