Nifty :: Once again an insider day with Belt Hold line bullish candle, bet again volume low in up move.. Constantly third side way momentum day..Now for 4th Feb watch strong resistance 4950 /4965..Momentum turns up only above 4965 till then wait and watch . Short term wave c of 2nd already in target (4950 to 5050) so be careful at higher level.. Our strategy for 4th Feb. up to 4965 sell at high (S.L 4967) buy in deep (S.L 4950). If Nifty break 4965(intraday inverted H&S breakout level) then change strategy as buy in deep (S.L 4906) Sell at high (S.L 5039).. Resistance for up move at 4950/4965/ 5008/5029/5039.. Supportsat 4906/4893/4850/4814..
I included one interesting Ema chart with it's various vertical shifts in post for 28th January views for Nifty. So today I am just updating and re-posting that chart first to examine the move guided or identified by the Ema. My students will surely able to relate the chart and the procedure of it's formations and applications.
The Ema lines have successfully provided support to this uptrend as of now. And right now hovering above the 144 with it's -2.5% vert. shift taking support successfully @ 4900.
Supports: 4890/4900 is most critical zone to hold for nifty for any further up move. A convincing break below 4880 can terminate the immediate bullishness again for downward targets of 4855-4810-4785.
Resistances: As 4839 has been breached, it can have some bullish significance. But a confirmed breakout above 4955 can certainly bring 4985/90-5025/30-5085/95.
The market opened flat to positive and taken a good support from the level of 4833 as written by me and it was complete bull dominant market that closed almost at day high.Market breadth was positive with advances at 907 against declines of 357.Market is not breaching its major support levels of 4830 and then 4770 significantly and hence it was expected that we may see a bounce back till 4925 that is already done today and closed above it too.We may be continuous in the upside as long as we are above 4830 on close to close basis and now if we do hold todays closing then we might see the next levels of 5018-5035 in the higher side and a sell off due to profit booking can not be ruled out near that levels.
NIFTY (4931.85)
Support : 4860 / 4805
Resistance : 4975 / 5020
SENSEX (16496.05)
Support : 16285 / 16055
Resistance : 16630 / 16775
NIFTY FUTURE (4925.8)
Support : 4865 / 4790
Resistance : 4980 / 5030
MKT COMMENTS
NIFTY FUT OI down 7.11% with flat volumes indicating short covering.
We expect NIFTY FUT to trade volatile.
On Thursday,Opening Is Flat To Positive,
Buy NIFTY Above 4920,Sl Below 4900,Tgt 4965/4995/5025
Sell NIFTY Below 4880,Sl Above 4900,Tgt 4835/4805/4875
BUY
AXISBANK Abv 1075,Sl 1060,Tgt 1090/1100/1110
SBIN (1999),Sl Blw 1980,Tgt 2010/2020
BANKINDIA Abv 360,Sl 355,Tgt 365/70/75
CUMMINS Abv 480,Sl 470,Tgt 495/500/505+
THINKSOFT Abv 485,Sl 475,Tgt 495/505/515
BHARATFORGE Abv 270,Sl 265,Tgt 275/80/85
SELL
GMRINFRA Blw 58.5,Sl 59.5,Tgt 57.5/56.5+
BHARTI Blw 310,Sl 315,Tgt 305/300/295
NALCO Blw 395,Sl 400,Tgt 390/85/80
I have changed the market observation format - now find more pictures and charts. Do let me know your feedback.
Market Observations
- S&P 500 - continues to trade below 50 dma of 1113 - not a great setup for bulls. Overnight - it closed flat and consolidated on the Tuesday gains. Global Bulls continue to hope for V-shaped recovery, but technically right now any such hope would be called as wishful thinking. Traders are inclined to sell on rallies below 50 dma
- Primary reason for concern - USD index setup. USD index after pulling back on Monday to near 200 dma has bounced strongly and looks ready for powerful rally. If that happens, it would be difficult for riskier assets to outperform
- The Big debate right now: What will Nifty touch first? - 100 dma of 5020 or 200 dma of 4630
- Month to date - Nifty is up 1% - not bad - but choppiness is making lots of people nervous.
- FIIs net bought 396 crores worth of stocks in cash market whereas DIIs remained neutral. Have FIIs run out of selling?
- Make of Break stock for the market: Reliance. The stock is holding on to important long term moving average. It has not cracked below 200 dma despite all selling of last 2-3 weeks.
- The same is the case with ONGC. It is just holding on to 200 dma and not cracking - big relief for Nifty
- If I have to explain in simple terms - what these stocks are doing - here’s a picture that explains the current situation of Nifty and Oil and Gas Sector.
- Kirit Parikh Committee has submitted its recommendation on Fuel price deregulation. Will Government implement the proposed recommendations? I would be shocked if that happens…pure kite flying exercise completely divorced from political reality
- What best HPCL and BPCL shareholders can hope for - USD 65 crude oil price in International market.
- Banks have been gross underperformer in last few weeks with two exceptions - Axis Bank and Bank of Baroda.
- Steel stocks made a grand comeback yesterday with Tata Steel up 4.7% and JSW Steel up 8%
- Aban - One stock where street is disappointed with last quarter earnings but quite hopeful going forward. It is getting reflected on charts. The stock did not crack below 200 dma post earnings.
- Yesterday, metal and real estate stocks bounced the most - a good sign or a bad sign - real rally or short covering.
- I was on NDTV Profit 2:30 factor yesterday. Topic - Structure of the Market
- Consumer Durables has made a fresh 52 week high. Is this a reflection of consumers making a strong comeback?
- In last 2-3 days, Titan and Rajesh Exports part of consumer durables index has made fresh 52 week high. Keep an eye on Gitanjali Gems - stock belonging to this index.
- RNRL: Technical Bounce or Fundamental News flow: The stock yesterday traded 3.5x volumes of 10 day average.
- Fundamental Talk: Aditya Birla Nuvo is trading at 40% discount to its intrinsic value as per analysts. Reason - The company’s conglomerate structure and a misplaced conception of sluggish growth across its businesses
- One stock that has made sharp turnaround - Mphasis. It is now trading well above 50 dma of 702
- When any fundamental report gives Valuation call on FY12 basis – one should give it a pass. It just tells – stock is expensive on FY11 basis.
- Call on the market.
- Advice is the only commodity on the market where the supply always exceeds the demand. My notes is just one more addition to the supply
- In market, any one can look stupid at any point of time.
- The market teaches humility and hence one should never be arrogant of one’s belief.
Source: Stockcharts [www.stockcharts.com]
Source: Stockcharts [www.stockcharts.com]
Source: ChartAlert [www.chartalert.com]
Source: ChartAlert [www.chartalert.com]
Source: ChartAlert [www.chartalert.com]
Source: ChartAlert [www.chartalert.com]
Source: ChartAlert [www.chartalert.com]
Source: ChartAlert [www.chartalert.com]
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